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Predictions graded

Montenegro2Cyprus1

HT 0–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 19–11On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 8–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Montenegro open Group C2 against the side they beat home and away in the 2020 Nations League, but the hosts have lost five of their last nine competitive matches and 1.73 for a home win asks more than that record supports.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 is the closest call and still no clear advantage, and a first-half goal at 1.33 doesn't pay enough. No quoted price here is worth backing.

Context

Montenegro's squad note brings Stevan Jovetić, Stefan Savić and Nikola Krstović back into a group that opens at home to Cyprus, restoring senior depth for a side that plays four League C matches inside twelve days. That matters here because the opener is the home game in which Montenegro can set the tone for a short campaign decided over two windows. The note is a squad list rather than a team sheet, so it establishes who is back in contention and not who starts on 25 September.
- Montenegro issued their Nations League squad for the September–October window ahead of an opener at home to Cyprus.
- The list records returns for Vasilije Adžić, Stevan Jovetić, Stefan Savić, Nikola Krstović, Igor Nikić, Risto Radunović and Dušan Vuković.
- First call-ups went to Bodin Tomašević, Aleksa Latković and Andrej Djurić.
- Montenegro's window runs Cyprus (H) on 25 September, Armenia (A), Latvia (A) and Armenia (H).
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:23 · Europe/Bucharest
The CFA announcement adds three uncapped players, including England-born Notts County defender Nikolas Tsaroulla, to the group that travels to Montenegro for Friday's opener. New call-ups can change how much a squad can rotate, and Cyprus has to bed them in during a camp that starts at the Archangelos centre before a 23 September flight. The announcement does not say whether any of the three will feature, so it confirms squad composition rather than a starting line-up.
- The Cyprus squad announcement, drawn from the CFA website, names first call-ups for Marcus Edwards, Leonidas Konomis and Nikolas Tsaroulla.
- Preparation began with a session at the 18:00 slot at the Archangelos training centre on 21 September.
- The squad was due to depart for Montenegro on the afternoon of Wednesday 23 September ahead of the Friday opener.
- A separate post describes Tsaroulla, born and raised in England, as a Notts County defender who came through Tottenham's academy.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Because the group winner rises automatically to League B and second place keeps a promotion play-off, points in the opening away game carry early weight for Cyprus's stated aim of a top-two finish. Both sides start from the same base, so the result shapes the tone of a campaign settled over four September–October matchdays rather than a long league season. These are shared competition stakes rather than a head-to-head edge, and one opening fixture rarely decides the group.
- Montenegro, Cyprus, Armenia and Latvia make up League C Group 2.
- The group winner is promoted to League B, and the runner-up competes in a promotion play-off.
- Teams finishing third and fourth remain in League C.
- Cyprus's federation framed the campaign around finishing in the top two.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Montenegro come into the opener with a win-or-lose competitive profile rather than a drawing one.
A nine-match sample with no draws says Montenegro's competitive games have separated rather than finished level, which is why a home win is the likeliest single result here. The one clean sheet in the same run cuts against expecting a comfortable home shutout, and Cyprus's 4-0 win at San Marino in October 2025 shows they can take a game away from a limited opponent. It also places Montenegro's home favouritism on venue form rather than their overall record.
- Montenegro's nine competitive matches run from 19 November 2024 to 17 November 2025: 4 wins, 0 draws, 5 defeats.
- One clean sheet and five matches with at least one goal scored across those nine.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.33fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 75.2%

−1.2ppshort

Recent matches for both teams have usually produced a first-half goal.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Montenegro

1.73fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 57.8%

−9.8ppshort

Montenegro's stronger home record and past wins over Cyprus give them the better chance, though their recent form is poor.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Montenegro's stronger home record and past wins over Cyprus give them the better chance, though their recent form is poor.
- Montenegro won 3 of 5 competitive home matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game.
- Cyprus lost 4 of 5 away matches, conceding 1.8 goals per game.
- Montenegro won both 2020 Nations League meetings with Cyprus.
- Montenegro scored in 4 of 5 home matches; Cyprus scored in 3 of 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMontenegroEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montenegro's home first-half scoring and Cyprus's away first-half conceding give them the better first-half chance.
- Montenegro average 1.0 first-half goal in home competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 1.0 first-half goal conceded in away competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 0.4 first-half goals in away competitive matches.
- Montenegro average 0.8 first-half goals conceded in home competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostMontenegroEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are balanced between the teams, making a draw the most likely outcome.
- Montenegro average 0.8 second-half goals in home competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 0.8 second-half goals in away competitive matches.
- Montenegro average 0.6 second-half goals conceded in home competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 0.8 second-half goals conceded in away competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montenegro's stronger home record and past wins over Cyprus give them the better chance, though their recent form is poor. A draw is possible but both teams' recent competitive records have few draws.
- Montenegro won 3 of 5 competitive home matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game.
- Cyprus lost 4 of 5 away matches, conceding 1.8 goals per game.
- Montenegro have no draws in their last 9 competitive matches.
- Cyprus have no draws in their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMontenegro or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montenegro's home first-half scoring and Cyprus's away first-half conceding give them the better first-half chance. First halves are often tight, and Cyprus score little before half-time away.
- Montenegro average 1.0 first-half goal in home competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 1.0 first-half goal conceded in away competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 0.4 first-half goals in away competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMontenegro or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Both teams' recent matches have often produced three or more goals.
- Montenegro's competitive matches average 3.2 total goals.
- Cyprus's competitive matches average 3.0 total goals.
- Montenegro's last 6 competitive matches averaged 3.3 total goals.
- Cyprus's last 6 competitive matches averaged 2.8 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cyprus's away scoring is inconsistent, so one team may be kept off the scoresheet.
- Cyprus failed to score in 2 of 5 away competitive matches.
- Montenegro kept 1 clean sheet in 5 home competitive matches.
- Cyprus kept 1 clean sheet in 5 away competitive matches.
- Montenegro were blanked in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montenegro have often been limited to one goal or fewer, even at home.
- Montenegro scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Montenegro average 1.8 goals in home competitive matches but were blanked in 2 of 5 home games.
- Cyprus kept 1 clean sheet in 5 away competitive matches.
- Montenegro scored in 4 of 5 home matches but their goals are spread out.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMontenegro under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cyprus have rarely scored more than once on the road.
- Cyprus average 1.2 goals in away competitive matches.
- Cyprus scored 0 or 1 in 4 of 5 away competitive matches.
- Cyprus failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away competitive matches.
- Montenegro kept 1 clean sheet in 5 home competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCyprus under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Recent matches for both teams have usually produced a first-half goal.
- Montenegro's last 6 competitive matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Cyprus's last 6 competitive matches had first-half goals in 5 matches.
- Montenegro average 1.0 first-half goal in home competitive matches.
- Cyprus average 1.0 first-half goal conceded in away competitive matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cyprus's low first-half away scoring makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Cyprus average 0.4 first-half goals in away competitive matches.
- Cyprus scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Montenegro scored first-half goals in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Montenegro average 1.0 first-half goal in home competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
There is a slight lean to fewer than two second-half goals because Cyprus's recent second halves have been quiet.
- Montenegro's home competitive matches average 1.4 second-half goals.
- Cyprus's away competitive matches average 1.6 second-half goals.
- Montenegro's last 6 competitive matches averaged 1.5 second-half goals.
- Cyprus's last 6 competitive matches averaged 1.2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams' recent corner counts are close to the 9.5 line, with a slight lean to over.
- Montenegro's home competitive matches average 9.8 total corners.
- Cyprus's away competitive matches average 10.2 total corners.
- Montenegro's last 6 competitive matches averaged 10.2 total corners.
- Cyprus's last 6 competitive matches averaged 9.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have usually produced fewer than six cards.
- Montenegro's home competitive matches average 5.4 total yellow cards.
- Cyprus's away competitive matches average 4.4 total yellow cards.
- Montenegro's last 6 competitive matches averaged 4.0 total cards including one red.
- Cyprus's last 6 competitive matches averaged 4.3 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montenegro's home matches have enough shots on target to push the total over, but Cyprus's away games are lower.
- Montenegro's home competitive matches average 11.4 shots on target in total.
- Cyprus's away competitive matches average 9.0 shots on target in total.
- Montenegro's last 6 competitive matches averaged 11.5 total shots on target.
- Cyprus's last 6 competitive matches averaged 8.3 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

W4-0MontenegrovCyprusNov 17, 2020UEF

W0-2CyprusvMontenegroSep 5, 2020UEF

D0-0CyprusvMontenegroMar 23, 2018FRI

Montenegro unbeaten in 3 meetingsMontenegro: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Montenegro Promotion	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
4	Cyprus	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Montenegro leads the leagueCyprus leads the league

Recent Form

Montenegro

D2-2SlovakiaJun 5FRI

W1-0BulgariaJun 1FRI

L2-3SloveniaMar 31FRI

W2-0AndorraMar 27FRI

L2-3CroatiaNov 17WOR

W2-1GibraltarNov 14WOR

W2-1LiechtensteinOct 13FRI

L0-4Faroe IslandsOct 9WOR

L0-4CroatiaSep 8WOR

L0-2CzechiaSep 5WOR

D2-2ArmeniaJun 9FRI

L0-2CzechiaJun 6WOR

W1-0Faroe IslandsMar 25WOR

W3-1GibraltarMar 22WOR

W3-1TürkiyeNov 19UEF

Cyprus

W2-0LiechtensteinJun 7FRI

D1-1SloveniaJun 4FRI

W3-2MoldovaMar 30FRI

L0-1BelarusMar 26FRI

L2-4EstoniaNov 18FRI

L0-2AustriaNov 15WOR

W4-0San MarinoOct 12WOR

D2-2Bosnia & HerzegovinaOct 9WOR

D2-2RomaniaSep 9WOR

L0-1AustriaSep 6WOR

L0-2RomaniaJun 10WOR

D2-2BulgariaJun 6FRI

L1-2Bosnia & HerzegovinaMar 24WOR

W2-0San MarinoMar 21WOR

L1-4RomaniaNov 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Montenegro

35 available

Attackers12

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Cyprus

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5