CONCACAF Nations LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Dominican Republic3Nicaragua2

HT 2–1Fri 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–838%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Nicaragua have lost all five away matches in this window, scoring once — the tension is whether a Dominican Republic side that has drawn four of seven home games can actually win one.

The hosts are the likelier winners, and the 2.4 on a home win is worth taking, as are 1.85 for both teams not to score and 3.2 for the Dominican Republic to lead at half-time. Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.4 is one to leave alone.

Context

Nicaragua's 2-0 win on September 8, 2023 is the one recent result in this fixture that cuts against the hosts' strong home record. It is a single match from three years ago, so it is context rather than a forecast. The Dominican Republic's unbeaten run across seven competitive home matches from November 2024 to March 2026 is the fresher evidence and the form the hosts bring into this match.
- September 8, 2023, CONCACAF Nations League in the Dominican Republic: Dominican Republic 0-2 Nicaragua (one meeting in the sample)
Nicaragua's away record is the most one-sided number in the brief: no wins, no draws and one goal in five matches from March to November 2025. In the four of those games with shot data they averaged 1.5 shots on target while facing 5.25. The sample is small and the opposition was often stronger, but it is the baseline for how much attacking threat they carry here.
- Five away matches from March 22, 2025 to November 19, 2025: no wins, no draws, five defeats, one goal scored (0.2 per game)
- Four of those away matches have shot data: 1.5 shots on target per game, 5.25 faced per game
This is the result that argues against treating Nicaragua as harmless: they beat Honduras in World Cup qualifying without needing the better of the play. It also shows they can lead at the interval, having gone in 1-0 up. The win came at home, though, and the five away matches in the same window produced a single goal.
- November 14, 2025, World Cup qualifying at home: Nicaragua 2-0 Honduras, 1-0 at half-time
- Match shots: Nicaragua 11, Honduras 15; shots on target 3-5
This 2-2 with El Salvador began with a 1-0 half-time lead that was given back after the break. It sits alongside four draws in seven competitive home matches from November 2024 to March 2026, so the home record is unbeaten but not dominant. Nicaragua's away form still makes the hosts the stronger side; the caution is that they have often shared the points at home.
- March 27, 2026, CONCACAF Series at home: Dominican Republic 2-2 El Salvador (1-0 at half-time, 1-2 in the second half)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
The hosts are unbeaten at home this window while Nicaragua have lost every away match and have managed one away goal.
- Dominican Republic home record in this window: 3 wins, 4 draws, 0 defeats, conceding 0.57 goals per home match
- Nicaragua away record in the same window: 0 wins, 5 defeats, one goal scored in five matches
- Nicaragua overall competitive record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 7 defeats, 0.73 goals scored per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDominican RepublicEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Many of the hosts' recent games have been level at the break and Nicaragua rarely score before half-time away.
- Three of Dominican Republic's last six matches were level at half-time
- Dominican Republic home first half: 1.0 scored and 0.14 conceded per match
- Nicaragua average 0.2 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts do most of their scoring after the break at home, while Nicaragua have not scored a second-half away goal in this window.
- Dominican Republic average 1.29 second-half goals at home and concede 0.43
- Nicaragua have scored no second-half goals in five away matches
- Nicaragua concede 1.4 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDominican RepublicEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts are unbeaten at home this window while Nicaragua have lost every away match and have managed one away goal. The home side has drawn more often than it has won at home, including two goalless draws, so a tight game can end level.
- Dominican Republic home record in this window: 3 wins, 4 draws, 0 defeats, conceding 0.57 goals per home match
- Nicaragua away record in the same window: 0 wins, 5 defeats, one goal scored in five matches
- Dominican Republic drew 4 of their 7 home competitive matches
- Three of the hosts' last six matches finished level
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDominican Republic or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts start strongly at home in the first period while Nicaragua rarely lead at the interval on the road. Many of the hosts' recent games have been level at the break and Nicaragua rarely score before half-time away.
- Dominican Republic average 1.0 first-half goals at home and concede 0.14
- Nicaragua average 0.2 first-half goals away and concede 1.0
- Three of Dominican Republic's last six matches were level at half-time
- Dominican Republic home first half: 1.0 scored and 0.14 conceded per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDominican Republic or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's recent matches have regularly reached three goals and this fixture has historically been tight.
- Nicaragua away matches average 2.6 goals combined
- The last four head-to-head meetings produced 0, 2, 0 and 1 goals
- Dominican Republic's last six matches averaged 1.83 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The visitors rarely find the net on the road, so the home side is more likely to keep a clean sheet than to concede.
- Nicaragua failed to score in 4 of 5 away matches
- Dominican Republic kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home competitive matches
- Nicaragua scored in 5 of 11 competitive matches overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts' recent home scoring has been modest, with two blanks in five home games.
- Dominican Republic were scoreless in 2 of their last 5 home matches
- They scored 5 goals across their last 5 home matches
- Nicaragua conceded 12 goals in 5 away matches, but against stronger opposition
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostDominican Republic under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nicaragua's away goal output is very low and the home defence concedes well under a goal a game at home.
- Nicaragua failed to score in 4 of 5 away matches, averaging 0.2 goals
- Dominican Republic kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches, conceding 0.57 per game
- Nicaragua scored 5 goals in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNicaragua not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nicaragua have conceded in every away match in this window and in nine of eleven competitive games overall.
- Nicaragua conceded in all 5 away matches, 2.4 goals per game
- Dominican Republic scored in 5 of 7 home matches
- Nicaragua conceded in 9 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDominican Republic to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
The home side scores before the break at a rate of one per home match, so a goalless first half is less likely than a goal.
- Dominican Republic average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Nicaragua concede 1.0 first-half goals per away match
- Nicaragua average 0.2 first-half goals away
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's first-half defence has barely been breached and Nicaragua offer almost no early away threat.
- Nicaragua have one first-half away goal in five matches
- Dominican Republic have conceded one first-half goal in seven home matches
- Dominican Republic's home first-half record: 1.0 scored, 0.14 conceded
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With the visitors contributing almost nothing after the break, one home goal or none is the common shape of the closing period.
- Nicaragua have scored no second-half goals in five away matches
- Dominican Republic average 1.29 second-half goals at home and concede 0.43
- Nicaragua average 0.67 second-half goals overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts generate a lot of corners at home, although Nicaragua's matches have generally produced few.
- Dominican Republic average 9.7 corners at home and 4.3 against in three home matches
- Dominican Republic average 6.7 corners overall and 4.5 against
- Nicaragua's away matches average 8 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home side puts a healthy share of its shots on target and Nicaragua allow plenty, so the combined figure can clear ten.
- Dominican Republic average 8.5 shots on target per match; opponents 5
- Nicaragua average 2.4 shots on target and concede 4.8
- Nicaragua's away matches average 1.5 shots on target for and 5.3 against
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D0-0NicaraguavDominican RepublicNov 22, 2023CON

L0-2Dominican RepublicvNicaraguaSep 8, 2023CON

D0-0NicaraguavDominican RepublicJan 27, 2022FRI

W1-0Dominican RepublicvNicaraguaNov 11, 2017FRI

W0-3NicaraguavDominican RepublicNov 9, 2017FRI

Dominican Republic: 4 clean sheetsNicaragua: 3 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Dominican Republic

L2-4PanamaJun 4FRI

D1-1CubaMar 29CON

D2-2El SalvadorMar 27CON

D0-0MartiniqueNov 18CON

W2-0St. Vincent / GrenadinesNov 13CON

L0-1UruguayOct 10FRI

L0-3JordanSep 9FRI

D0-0SurinameJun 23CON

L1-2Costa RicaJun 18CON

L2-3MexicoJun 15CON

W5-0DominicaJun 10WOR

L2-4GuatemalaJun 7WOR

W2-0Puerto RicoMar 26FRI

D2-2Puerto RicoMar 22FRI

W6-1BermudaNov 19CON

Nicaragua

L0-4ParaguayJun 5FRI

D0-0South AfricaMay 29FRI

L1-3RussiaMar 27FRI

L0-2HaitiNov 19WOR

W2-0HondurasNov 14WOR

L1-4Costa RicaOct 14WOR

L0-3HaitiOct 10WOR

L0-2HondurasSep 10WOR

D1-1Costa RicaSep 6WOR

L0-3PanamaJun 11WOR

W1-0GuyanaJun 7WOR

D1-1Puerto RicoJun 1FRI

L0-1GuadeloupeMar 26CON

L0-1GuadeloupeMar 22CON

W3-2French GuyanaOct 15CON

Squad & Injuries

Dominican Republic

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Nicaragua

32 available

Attackers10

Midfielders13

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Dominican Republic

No

Dominican Republic

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Dominican Republic

Nicaragua

Squad & Injuries

Dominican Republic

Nicaragua