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Predictions graded

Ivory Coast2Ghana0

HT 1–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 12–11On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 13:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivory Coast's home defence against a Ghana side that grinds out clean sheets but barely shoots: five clean sheets in eight competitive matches, about one shot on target a game.

Ivory Coast are the likelier winners, with the draw a live second outcome, but the prices offering something sit the other way — Ghana to win or draw at 2.3, Ghana to win at 6, no goal in the first half at 2.6. Ivory Coast at 1.57 and Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 ask more than the chances justify.

Context

Four meetings since February 2015 have produced two goalless draws and two one-goal results, so neither side has broken the other open. For this fixture it points to a tight game settled by a single moment, and it lines up with the low-scoring tendencies in both recent records. The counterweight is age: the most recent meeting was a June 2021 friendly and the other three were 2015 fixtures between different squads.
- 2021-06-12 friendly, Ghana 0-0 Ivory Coast.
- 2015-02-08 Africa Cup of Nations, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ghana.
- 2015-10-18 African Nations Championship, Ghana 2-1 Ivory Coast.
- 2015-10-30 African Nations Championship, Ivory Coast 1-0 Ghana.
Ghana's away record is one win, two draws and two losses from five matches, and the three with shot data show a side that sits deep: 5.3 shots and 0.67 on target per game while facing 15.7. That keeps games close — two clean sheets in those five — but it makes a second Ghana goal unlikely. The limitation is the sample: only three of the five away matches carry shot counts.
- Ghana away split: 5 competitive matches from 2025-09-04 to 2026-07-04, 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
- Away shot data covers 3 matches: 5.33 shots for and 15.67 against per game.
- Away shots on target: 0.67 for and 5.0 against per game across those 3 matches.
- Two clean sheets in five away matches.
Ghana's defensive record is the main reason this looks tight: five clean sheets in eight competitive matches and 0.5 goals conceded per game. The other side of the same record is a low attacking output — 1.25 goals per game, and one shot on target per match in the four games with shot data — which is why their results have been narrow. The counterpoint is the sample: eight competitive matches across ten months, several at World Cup venues rather than in qualification.
- 8 competitive matches from 2025-09-04 to 2026-07-04: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 6 scored and 3 conceded.
- Five clean sheets in those eight matches; 0.5 goals conceded per game.
- 1.25 goals scored per game; 1.0 shots on target per game in the 4 matches with shot data.
Ivory Coast's home split — three wins, one draw and one loss, with 0.6 goals conceded and three clean sheets — shows a side that is difficult to break down on its own ground but rarely runs away with games. They scored exactly one goal in three of their last six competitive matches, so the pattern is narrow wins rather than comfortable ones. It supports the tight, low-scoring feel of this fixture, with the size of the sample the main caveat: five home matches, the earliest on 24 December 2025.
- 5 home competitive matches from 2025-12-24 to 2026-06-30: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- Three clean sheets; 0.6 goals conceded and 1.4 goals scored per home match.
- Home shot volume: 15.6 shots and 4.0 on target per game across those five matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ivory Coast have the stronger attacking output and a solid home defensive record, giving them the better chance of winning this match.
- Ivory Coast overall: 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 1.67 goals for and 1.11 against per game.
- Ivory Coast home split: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 1.4 goals for, 0.6 against, 3 clean sheets in 5.
- Ghana overall: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 1.25 goals for, 0.5 against, but only 1.0 shots on target per game.
- Head-to-head: last four meetings include two 0-0 draws, one Ivory Coast win and one Ghana win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIvory CoastEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Ivory Coast first-half goals for and against: 0.67 and 0.56 overall.
- Ghana first-half goals for and against: 0.25 and 0.25 overall.
- Combined first-half averages suggest fewer than one goal per half.
- Head-to-head recent meetings were low-scoring throughout.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ivory Coast score regularly after the break and have a slight edge to win the second half.
- Ivory Coast overall second-half goals for: 1.0 per game; against: 0.56.
- Ivory Coast home second-half goals for: 1.0 per game; against: 0.4.
- Ghana away second-half goals against: 0.4 per game.
- Ghana overall second-half goals against: 0.25 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonIvory CoastEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ivory Coast have the stronger attacking output and a solid home defensive record, giving them the better chance of winning this match. Both sides have recent low-scoring tendencies and a tight head-to-head record, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- Ivory Coast overall: 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 1.67 goals for and 1.11 against per game.
- Ivory Coast home split: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 1.4 goals for, 0.6 against, 3 clean sheets in 5.
- Ivory Coast overall: 1 draw in 9 competitive matches; Ghana overall: 2 draws in 8.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring: Ivory Coast 0.67, Ghana 0.25 per game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIvory Coast or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ivory Coast have a modest first-half scoring edge, but the half is often tight. Both teams score little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Ivory Coast overall first-half goals for: 0.67 per game.
- Ivory Coast home first-half goals for: 0.4 per game.
- Ivory Coast first-half goals for and against: 0.67 and 0.56 overall.
- Ghana first-half goals for and against: 0.25 and 0.25 overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonIvory Coast or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both defences have been strong recently and the head-to-head history points to a low-scoring game.
- Combined average total goals from both teams' competitive matches is about 2.3.
- Ghana overall goals against average is 0.5 per game.
- Ivory Coast home goals against average is 0.6 per game.
- Head-to-head: two of the last four meetings ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both sides have strong clean-sheet records and have often limited opponents to few goals.
- Ghana kept five clean sheets in eight competitive matches.
- Ivory Coast kept four clean sheets in nine competitive matches.
- Ghana away split: only 2 of 5 matches had both teams scoring.
- Ivory Coast home split: only 2 of 5 matches had both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghana's away defence has been stingy, making it more likely Ivory Coast are held to one goal or fewer.
- Ivory Coast home goals average: 1.4 per game.
- Ivory Coast scored exactly one goal in three of their last six competitive matches.
- Ghana away goals against average: 0.8 per game.
- Ghana kept two clean sheets in five away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostIvory Coast under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ivory Coast's home defence has been strong, limiting Ghana's chances of scoring twice.
- Ghana away goals average: 1.4 per game, but that includes a 5-0 win.
- Ghana scored exactly one goal in four of their last six competitive matches.
- Ivory Coast home goals against average: 0.6 per game.
- Ivory Coast kept three clean sheets in five home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGhana under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ghana have generally found a goal in most matches, making a clean sheet for Ivory Coast less likely than not.
- Ghana scored in 6 of 8 competitive matches overall.
- Ghana away split: scored in 3 of 5 matches.
- Ivory Coast home clean sheets: 3 in 5, so they conceded in 2.
- Ghana recent World Cup: scored against Croatia and Panama.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGhana to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
There is usually at least one goal before half-time in these teams' recent matches.
- Combined first-half goals average: about 0.9 per game from both teams' overall records.
- Ivory Coast home first-half total goals: 0.6 per game.
- Ghana away first-half total goals: 0.8 per game.
- Five of Ivory Coast's last six competitive matches had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The expected second-half goal total is below 1.5, making under the more likely side.
- Combined second-half total goals average: about 1.4 per game.
- Ghana away second-half total goals: 1.4 per game.
- Ivory Coast home second-half total goals: 1.4 per game.
- Ghana's last three World Cup matches had one or zero second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivory Coast generate many corners, but Ghana's matches tend to have few, leaving the total near the line.
- Ivory Coast overall corners: 6.89 for and 3.67 against (10.56 total).
- Ivory Coast home corners: 7.6 for and 3.2 against (10.8 total).
- Ghana overall corners: 2.0 for and 4.25 against (6.25 total).
- Ghana away corners: 2.0 for and 5.0 against (7.0 total).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce around 20 or more total shots, with Ivory Coast's home games well above.
- Ivory Coast overall shots: 14.22 for and 9.67 against (23.89 total).
- Ivory Coast home shots: 15.6 for and 9.0 against (24.6 total).
- Ghana overall shots: 6.0 for and 14.5 against (20.5 total).
- Ghana away shots: 5.33 for and 15.67 against (21.0 total).
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches typically feature more than 4.5 shots on target, even with Ghana's low attacking output.
- Ivory Coast overall shots on target: 3.78 for and 3.0 against (6.78 total).
- Ivory Coast home shots on target: 4.0 for and 2.2 against (6.2 total).
- Ghana overall shots on target: 1.0 for and 4.75 against (5.75 total).
- Ghana away shots on target: 0.67 for and 5.0 against (5.67 total).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance72%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

D0-0GhanavIvory CoastJun 12, 2021FRI

W1-0Ivory CoastvGhanaOct 30, 2015AFR

L2-1GhanavIvory CoastOct 18, 2015AFR

D0-0Ivory CoastvGhanaFeb 8, 2015AFR

Ivory Coast: 3 clean sheetsGhana: 2 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Ivory Coast

W2-0Philadelphia Union IIJun 8FRI

W2-1FranceJun 4FRI

W1-0ScotlandMar 31FRI

W4-0South KoreaMar 28FRI

L2-3EgyptJan 10AFR

W3-0Burkina FasoJan 6AFR

W3-2GabonDec 31AFR

D1-1CameroonDec 28AFR

W1-0MozambiqueDec 24AFR

W2-0OmanNov 18FRI

L0-1Saudi ArabiaNov 14FRI

Ghana

D1-1WalesJun 2FRI

L0-2MexicoMay 23FRI

L1-2GermanyMar 30FRI

L1-5AustriaMar 27FRI

L0-1South KoreaNov 18FRI

L0-2JapanNov 14FRI

W1-0ComorosOct 12WOR

W5-0Central African RepublicOct 8WOR

W1-0MaliSep 8WOR

D1-1ChadSep 4WOR

W4-0Trinidad and TobagoMay 31FRI

Squad & Injuries

Ivory Coast

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Ghana

26 available

Attackers3

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Ivory Coast2Ghana0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Ghana

Ghana

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

No

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Ivory Coast

Ghana

Squad & Injuries

Ivory Coast

Ghana