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Predictions graded

China3Maldives0

HT 0–0Thu 24 Sept 2026, 11:35 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 21–0On targetOn target 8–0CornersCorners 15–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:25 · Europe/Bucharest

China are clear favourites against Maldives — four previous meetings, four China wins, no Maldives goal — but their own recent competitive record is low-scoring: 0.67 goals a game across 12 matches since October 2024.

Under 2.5 goals at 6.0 is the only reviewed price worth attention; Maldives not to score at 1.09 and China to lead at half-time at 1.11 ask for more than the records support.

Context

China have never dropped a result against Maldives, but the series has been dormant since 2021.
The record gives China a clear historical edge in this fixture, which is why the question is the margin rather than the result. It also cuts against a low-scoring expectation: the four meetings produced 17 goals, the only direct evidence between the sides. With the most recent of them in June 2021, the series says more about the gap in quality than about current form.
- China 5-0 Maldives, 11 June 2021, World Cup qualifying (most recent meeting)
- Maldives 0-5 China, 10 September 2019, World Cup qualifying
- China 4-0 Maldives, 24 March 2016, and Maldives 0-3 China, 8 September 2015, both World Cup qualifying
- Aggregate across four meetings (2015-2021): China 17 goals, Maldives 0 goals, 4 China wins
China's recent competitive matches have been decided by fine margins rather than big scorelines.
This is the counterweight to China's record against Maldives. Their recent competitive matches have been tight and low-scoring, with only one of the last six producing more than two goals, so a repeat of the 5-0 and 4-0 wins in the old series is not what current form suggests. Maldives concede heavily, yet China have rarely turned control into a large scoreline since 2024.
- 12 competitive matches, 15 October 2024 to 31 March 2026: 0.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game
- 4 clean sheets across those 12 competitive matches
- Six most recent tracked matches (10 June 2025 to 31 March 2026) total goals: 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.01fair 1.05

BetBugs 95% · Market 99%

−4.0ppshort

Maldives have not scored in the first half recently, making both teams scoring before half-time very unlikely.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.09fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 91.7%

−3.7ppshort

Maldives have rarely scored and have been shut out by China in every recent meeting.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
China are much stronger at home and have dominated this matchup, while Maldives rarely score.
- China have won all four head-to-head meetings, scoring 17 and conceding 0.
- Maldives have lost 5 of 6 competitive matches and conceded 13 goals in those six.
- China have 4 wins and 3 clean sheets in their last 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonChinaEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Maldives rarely score before half-time and often concede early, helping China lead at the break.
- Maldives have scored 0 first-half goals in their last six competitive matches.
- Maldives have conceded 1.5 first-half goals per competitive match.
- China have scored 0.57 first-half goals per home match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostChinaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maldives' second-half defense is vulnerable and China are more likely to score after the break.
- Maldives have conceded 0.67 second-half goals per competitive match.
- Maldives have scored 0.2 second-half goals per competitive match.
- China have scored 0.43 second-half goals per home match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonChinaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
China are much stronger at home and have dominated this matchup, while Maldives rarely score. A draw would require China to be held, which their recent competitive record has not produced.
- China have won all four head-to-head meetings, scoring 17 and conceding 0.
- Maldives have lost 5 of 6 competitive matches and conceded 13 goals in those six.
- China have averaged only 0.67 goals per game across 12 competitive matches.
- Maldives have drawn none of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChina or DrawEstimated chance97%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Maldives rarely score before half-time and often concede early, helping China lead at the break. China's low first-half scoring and tendency to concede early could leave the half level.
- Maldives have scored 0 first-half goals in their last six competitive matches.
- Maldives have conceded 1.5 first-half goals per competitive match.
- China have scored 0.33 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonChina or DrawEstimated chance93%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 6.00
The read
China's recent matches have been low-scoring, and Maldives rarely contribute goals.
- China have averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per competitive match.
- In China's last six competitive matches, only one produced over 2.5 goals.
- Maldives have scored just 3 goals in their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.09
The read
Maldives have rarely scored and have been shut out by China in every recent meeting.
- Maldives have scored 3 goals in their last six competitive matches.
- China have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 7 home matches.
- Maldives failed to score in all four head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
China are likely to create enough chances against a Maldives defense that has conceded heavily.
- China have scored 5 goals in 7 home matches.
- China scored 3 or more in all four head-to-head meetings.
- Maldives have conceded 13 goals in their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonChina over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Maldives have shown almost no scoring output, especially away from home against China.
- Maldives have scored 3 goals in their last six competitive matches.
- Maldives scored 1 goal in their last three away matches.
- Maldives scored none in four head-to-head meetings with China.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMaldives under 1.5Estimated chance96%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
China's home defense has been solid and Maldives have very limited attacking returns.
- China kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- Maldives scored 1 goal in their last three away matches.
- Maldives failed to score in all four head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMaldives not to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Maldives have not shown they can shut out opponents, and China have scored in recent competitive wins.
- Maldives have kept 0 clean sheets in their last six competitive matches.
- China scored in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- China scored 17 goals across four head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChina to scoreEstimated chance97%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
China have combined wins with clean sheets against Maldives historically and at home recently.
- China kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- China won all four head-to-head meetings without conceding.
- Maldives have scored 3 goals in their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Both teams' first-half goal averages point to at least one goal before the break.
- China's competitive matches average 1.17 first-half goals.
- Maldives' competitive matches average 1.5 first-half goals.
- Maldives have conceded 1.5 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Maldives have not scored in the first half recently, making both teams scoring before half-time very unlikely.
- Maldives have scored 0 first-half goals in their last six competitive matches.
- Maldives have scored 0 first-half goals in their last three away matches.
- China have conceded 0.83 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance95%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-half goal averages are close to one, favoring under 1.5.
- China's competitive matches average 0.75 second-half goals.
- Maldives' competitive matches average 0.87 second-half goals.
- China's home matches average 0.71 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.09 price requires 91.7%, above our 88.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 0W

W5-0ChinavMaldivesJun 11, 2021WOR

W0-5MaldivesvChinaSep 10, 2019WOR

W4-0ChinavMaldivesMar 24, 2016WOR

W0-3MaldivesvChinaSep 8, 2015WOR

China unbeaten in 4 meetingsChina: 4 clean sheets4.3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

China

D0-0ThailandJun 9FRI

W2-1SingaporeJun 5FRI

L0-2CameroonMar 31FIF

W2-0CuraçaoMar 27FIF

D2-2UzbekistanJan 26FRI

W1-0Hong KongJul 15EAF

L0-2JapanJul 12EAF

L0-3South KoreaJul 7EAF

W1-0BahrainJun 10WOR

L0-1IndonesiaJun 5WOR

L0-2AustraliaMar 25WOR

L0-1Saudi ArabiaMar 20WOR

L1-3JapanNov 19WOR

W1-0BahrainNov 14WOR

W2-1IndonesiaOct 15WOR

Maldives

D1-1Bangladesh U23Jun 7FRI

L0-3PakistanJun 4FRI

L0-1AfghanistanJun 1FRI

W2-1Timor-LesteMar 31ASI

L0-2PhilippinesNov 18ASI

L0-3TajikistanOct 14ASI

L0-2TajikistanOct 9ASI

D1-1Sri LankaSep 9FRI

W3-0Sri LankaSep 6FRI

L0-1Timor-LesteJun 10ASI

L1-3SingaporeJun 5FRI

L1-4PhilippinesMar 25ASI

L0-3IndiaMar 19FRI

L1-2BangladeshNov 16FRI

W1-0BangladeshNov 13FRI

Squad & Injuries

China

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Maldives

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

China

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

China

Maldives

Squad & Injuries

China

Maldives