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Wingate & FinchleyHemel Hempstead Town

Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:4522 Sept, 18:45

12Probabilities1Priced3Edges80%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

A 1-1 draw at Hemel on 19 September sends the tie to Wingate, where the lower-division side have won once in five home matches and score little.

Hemel's away form (three wins, one draw, one loss in five) makes them the likelier winners, but six draws in 12 competitive matches argues against the 1.55. Wingate to avoid defeat at 2.3, a half-time draw at 2.4 and Wingate to win at 4.75 all offer something.

Context

No injury, availability or team-news items exist for either side and there was no research context to add; the sporting picture rests on small samples — five home matches for Wingate, five away for Hemel and 12 competitive matches for Hemel overall.

The tie is level going into the second meeting, and the shape of the first game — nothing before half-time, one goal each afterwards — fits two teams who do little scoring early. Wingate's thin home output, three goals across five home matches in this window, is the main caution for the side playing at home.
- 19 Sep 2026, FA Cup at Hemel Hempstead Town: 1-1, goalless at half-time, one goal for each side in the second half.
A side averaging under a goal a game at home has a narrow margin for error in a cup tie that must be settled. The sample is only five matches, and Wingate scored four in a 4-3 win at Aveley on 14 September, so this is a caution about the venue split rather than a settled pattern.
- Wingate home record 25 Apr–5 Sep 2026 (n=5): 1W-2D-2L, three goals scored (0.6 per home game) and 1.4 goals conceded per home game.
The away sample is the clearest reason Hemel start ahead of a side from a division below, and they have been hard to break down on the road. The counterpoint is that they won none of seven home matches in the same window, drawing five, so their edge comes down to how well they manage a close game rather than any habit of dominating.
- Hemel away record 18 Apr–8 Sep 2026 (n=5): 3W-1D-1L, 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per away game, two clean sheets.
Seven years separate that six-goal afternoon from this month's 1-1, so it says more about how varied the two clubs' meetings can be than about what happens next. Recent scoring on both sides has been modest, which leaves the older scoreline as the outlier.
- 12 Jan 2019, FA Trophy at Hemel Hempstead Town: Hemel Hempstead Town 4-2 Wingate & Finchley — the only other meeting in the supplied head-to-head record.

BetBugs edges

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BetBugs probabilities

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Result3 outcomes · top 77%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hemel are the higher-division side with the stronger away record in this window.
- Hemel play one division higher (National League South vs Isthmian Premier)
- Hemel away: 3W-1D-1L, 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded per away game
- Wingate home: 1 win in 5, conceding 1.4 per home game
- Hemel overall 3W-6D-3L with 1.0 scored and 1.08 conceded per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerHemel Hempstead TownEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both sides have often reached half-time level in recent matches and first-half goals are limited.
- Wingate have been level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Hemel have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Wingate average 0.71 first-half goals scored and conceded
- Hemel average 0.5 first-half goals scored
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.40Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring is scarce on both sides, so a home lead at the break is only one of several outcomes. Both sides have often reached half-time level in recent matches and first-half goals are limited.
- Wingate first-half goals at home: 0.4 scored, 0.4 conceded per game
- Wingate first-half totals overall: 0.71 scored, 0.71 conceded
- Wingate have been level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Hemel have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfWingate & Finchley or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals9 outcomes · top 80%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hemel's recent matches have been low-scoring and the venue splits point to around two goals.
- Hemel have gone under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Wingate home games average 2.0 total goals
- Hemel away games average 2.0 total goals
- Wingate overall averages 3.07 goals per match across both ends
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have scored in most of each side's recent matches, so both finding the net is the more likely single outcome.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Wingate's 14 matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Hemel's 12 matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of each side's last 6 matches
- Wingate kept 3 clean sheets in 14; Hemel kept 2 in 12
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wingate's home scoring output sits well below two goals a match.
- Wingate average 0.6 goals per home game (3 goals in 5)
- Wingate have scored 2+ in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Hemel average 0.8 conceded per away game
- Hemel have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalWingate & Finchley under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hemel's scoring output has been modest and mostly limited to a single goal per game.
- Hemel scored 1 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Hemel average 1.0 goals per competitive match
- Hemel failed to score in 2 of 12 competitive matches
- Hemel have 6 draws in 12 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHemel Hempstead Town under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wingate have conceded in the large majority of their matches and have not kept a recent clean sheet.
- Wingate conceded in 11 of 14 competitive matches
- Wingate conceded 1.86 goals per match overall
- Wingate kept 0 clean sheets in their last 6 matches
- Hemel scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHemel Hempstead Town to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wingate have found the net in nearly every match, and Hemel rarely keep opponents out.
- Wingate scored in 11 of 14 competitive matches
- Wingate scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Hemel kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
- Hemel concede 1.08 goals per match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScoreWingate & Finchley to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving these teams have usually produced at least one first-half goal.
- Wingate home first-half goals: 0.4 for, 0.4 against per game
- Hemel away first-half goals: 0.6 for, 0.6 against per game
- Both sides' first-half totals average close to one goal per match
- First-half goals were scored in 7 of the two sides' last 12 matches combined
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are rare on both sides, so both scoring before the break is unlikely.
- Wingate first-half at home: 0.4 scored, 0.4 conceded per game
- Hemel first-half away: 0.6 scored, 0.6 conceded per game
- Both scored before half-time in 4 of the last 12 combined matches
- Wingate's last six first halves contained three goalless periods
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hemel's second halves have been tight at both ends and Wingate score little after the break at home.
- Hemel second-half away totals: 0.6 for, 0.2 against per game
- Hemel concede 0.42 second-half goals per match overall
- Wingate score 0.2 second-half goals per home game
- Hemel's last six second halves rarely produced two goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

D1-1Hemel Hempstead TownvWingate & FinchleySep 19, 2026FAC

L4-2Hemel Hempstead TownvWingate & FinchleyJan 12, 2019FA

4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Wingate & Finchley

D1-1Hemel Hempstead TownSep 19FAC

W4-3AveleySep 14NON

L1-4Welling UnitedSep 12NON

W2-0Felixstowe & Walton UtdSep 8FAC

D0-0Felixstowe & Walton UtdSep 5FAC

L1-4Enfield TownAug 31NON

W3-2Chatham TownAug 29NON

W1-0Dulwich HamletAug 22NON

D2-2WhyteleafeAug 15NON

L0-2Carshalton AthleticAug 10NON

D1-1Cray WanderersAug 8NON

L0-3KingstonianJul 14FRI

L0-2AveleyApr 25NON

D1-1LewesApr 18NON

L0-4Chatham TownApr 11NON

Hemel Hempstead Town

D1-1Wingate & FinchleySep 19FAC

D1-1Tonbridge AngelsSep 12NAT

D0-0Ebbsfleet UnitedSep 8NAT

D1-1Farnham TownSep 5NAT

L0-2Folkestone InvictaAug 31NAT

L1-3Weston-super-MareAug 29NAT

W2-1SalisburyAug 22NAT

L0-1MaidenheadAug 18NAT

W2-0FarnboroughAug 15NAT

D1-1Chelmsford CityAug 8NAT

D1-1St Albans CityAug 1FRI

L0-1WealdstoneJul 18FRI

L1-2BarnetJul 11FRI

D1-1SalisburyApr 25NAT

W2-1TorquayApr 18NAT

Squad & Injuries

Wingate & Finchley

3 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders1

Goalkeeper1

Hemel Hempstead Town

20 available

Attackers6

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Wingate & Finchley or Draw

Draw

Wingate & Finchley

Result3 outcomes · top 77%

Goals9 outcomes · top 80%

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Wingate & Finchley

Hemel Hempstead Town

Squad & Injuries

Wingate & Finchley

Hemel Hempstead Town