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Predictions graded

Groene Ster1AFC Amsterdam6

HT 0–4Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest

A cup tie across a division: Tweede Divisie side AFC Amsterdam away to Derde Divisie Groene Ster.

AFC are the likelier winners, but 1.62 for their win asks more than their away record supports, and the goal prices — Over 2.5 at 1.40, both teams to score at 1.44, a first-half goal at 1.22 — offer nothing either. Groene Ster at 4.33 is the one quoted price with something behind it.

Context

AFC Amsterdam play a level above Groene Ster and arrive from a winning away performance in their most recent league fixture.
AFC's most recent result shows a side that can score away from home at the higher level, which is the main reason they start this cup tie as favourites. Groene Ster have scored in all eight home matches, though, so that favouritism rests on AFC's overall quality rather than on a likely shutout.
- 19 September 2026: AFC Amsterdam won 3-1 away at Koninklijke HFC in the Tweede Divisie, 1-0 ahead at half-time, with two further goals after the break.
Groene Ster's home matches have produced goals for them every time, without much protection at the other end.
Groene Ster's home record of four wins, one draw and three defeats is ordinary on its own, but they scored in all eight matches and both teams scored in seven of them. That gives the Derde Divisie side a route into this tie even against a defence from the division above.
- Home record 12 April to 12 September 2026: 8 matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 16 goals scored (2.00 per game) and 14 conceded (1.75 per game).
- Both teams scored in 7 of those 8 home matches; Groene Ster kept 1 clean sheet at home.
AFC Amsterdam's travels this season have been respectable rather than dominant, with two clean sheets and two blanks in eight away fixtures.
AFC score 1.63 and concede 1.50 per away game, so the away form is solid without being commanding, and the heavy defeat at Rijnsburgse Boys shows they can be opened up. Groene Ster have scored in every home match, which makes a comfortable AFC afternoon harder to picture.
- Away record 21 March to 19 September 2026: 8 matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 13 goals scored (1.63 per game) and 12 conceded (1.50 per game).
- Two clean sheets and four matches where both teams scored in those eight away fixtures; AFC were held scoreless in two of them.
- 5 September 2026: lost 0-3 away at Rijnsburgse Boys in the Tweede Divisie, 0-2 behind at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 82%

−8.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half goal averages point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 71.4%

−8.4ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games all season, with Groene Ster conceding heavily and AFC's away matches also producing goals.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

−7.4ppshort

Groene Ster rarely keep opponents out at home and AFC score in the majority of their away games, so both teams finding the net is the more likely outcome.

Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.62fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 61.7%

−5.7ppshort

Groene Ster's home second halves have produced plenty of goals, and their late concessions raise the chance of two or more after the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC sit a division higher and arrive with four wins in their last six, including 3-1 away at Koninklijke HFC, so they should hold the upper hand even away from home.
- AFC Amsterdam play in the Tweede Divisie, one level above Groene Ster's Derde Divisie
- AFC away record: 4W-1D-3L in 8, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.50 per game
- AFC last six: 4W-1D-1L with 12 goals scored
- Groene Ster overall: 4W-3D-7L in 14, conceding 2.36 per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAFC AmsterdamEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves between two evenly matched scoring profiles often end level, especially with both defences tighter before the break.
- Groene Ster home first half: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded per game in 8
- AFC away first half: 0.75 scored, 0.88 conceded per game in 8
- Cup tie between sides from different divisions
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC finish games strongly and Groene Ster concede more after the break at home, so the visitors are the most likely second-half winner.
- AFC away second half: 0.88 scored and 0.63 conceded per game in 8
- Groene Ster home second half: 1.25 conceded per game
- AFC scored 8 of their 12 recent goals after half-time
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAFC AmsterdamEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AFC sit a division higher and arrive with four wins in their last six, including 3-1 away at Koninklijke HFC, so they should hold the upper hand even away from home. Groene Ster score regularly at home and AFC concede in most away games, so the hosts are a live underdog in their own cup tie.
- AFC Amsterdam play in the Tweede Divisie, one level above Groene Ster's Derde Divisie
- AFC away record: 4W-1D-3L in 8, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.50 per game
- Groene Ster home record: 4W-1D-3L in 8, scoring 2.00 per game
- Groene Ster scored in all 8 home matches and in 12 of 14 competitive games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGroene Ster or AFC AmsterdamEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves between two evenly matched scoring profiles often end level, especially with both defences tighter before the break. AFC's higher level and their habit of scoring before the break on the road give them a slight first-half edge.
- Groene Ster home first half: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded per game in 8
- AFC away first half: 0.75 scored, 0.88 conceded per game in 8
- Groene Ster home first half: 0.50 conceded per game
- AFC away first half: 0.75 scored per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AFC AmsterdamEstimated chance72%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games all season, with Groene Ster conceding heavily and AFC's away matches also producing goals.
- Groene Ster overall average combined goals per game: 3.93 (1.57 for, 2.36 against in 14)
- Groene Ster home combined average: 3.75 per game in 8
- AFC Amsterdam away combined average: 3.13 per game in 8
- Both scored in 11 of Groene Ster's 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Groene Ster rarely keep opponents out at home and AFC score in the majority of their away games, so both teams finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Groene Ster home: both teams scored in 7 of 8 matches
- Groene Ster conceded in 13 of 14 competitive matches
- AFC scored in 6 of 8 away matches and in 13 of 15 overall
- AFC recent six: both teams scored in 3 of 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Groene Ster average two goals a game at home and have found the net in every home fixture, so two or more is a reasonable possibility.
- Groene Ster home: 2.00 goals per game across 8 matches
- Groene Ster scored in all 8 home matches
- AFC away: 1.50 conceded per game with 2 clean sheets in 8
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGroene Ster over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AFC have been scoring freely lately and Groene Ster concede close to two goals a game at home, so two or more away goals is slightly more likely than not.
- AFC away: 1.63 goals per game in 8 matches
- AFC scored 12 goals in their last 6 matches (2.00 per game)
- Groene Ster home: 1.75 conceded per game in 8
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAFC Amsterdam over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Groene Ster have conceded in nearly every competitive game, so AFC are very likely to score at least once.
- Groene Ster conceded in 7 of 8 home matches and 13 of 14 overall
- AFC scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches
- AFC scored in 6 of 8 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAFC Amsterdam to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Groene Ster have scored in every home fixture and average two goals a game there, so AFC keeping them out is unlikely.
- Groene Ster scored in all 8 home matches and in 12 of 14 competitive matches
- Groene Ster home: 2.00 goals per game
- AFC away: 1.50 conceded per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGroene Ster to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first-half goal averages point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.
- Groene Ster home first-half combined: 1.50 goals per game
- AFC away first-half combined: 1.63 goals per game
- Groene Ster score 1.00 first-half goal per home game on average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With each side averaging less than a first-half goal, at least one team is likely to be held scoreless before the break.
- AFC away first-half goals for: 0.75 per game
- AFC failed to score before half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Groene Ster home first-half conceded: 0.50 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Groene Ster's home second halves have produced plenty of goals, and their late concessions raise the chance of two or more after the break.
- Groene Ster home second-half combined: 2.25 goals per game in 8
- AFC away second-half combined: 1.50 goals per game in 8
- Groene Ster overall second half: 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Recent Form

Groene Ster

D1-1EVVSep 19DER

W1-0ZwaluwenSep 12DER

D3-3TOGBSep 5DER

W2-1HeerjansdamSep 2KNV

D3-3VvsbAug 30DER

L1-3Excelsior MaassluisAug 22DER

L1-3RoosendaalAug 16DER

L0-1AS EupenJul 3FRI

W3-1ASWHMay 23DER

L1-5TOGBMay 16DER

L1-2KloetingeMay 9DER

L0-3SteDoCoApr 25DER

W4-2NoordwijkApr 18DER

L1-2GemertApr 12DER

L0-4Blauw GeelApr 6DER

AFC Amsterdam

W3-1Koninklijke HFCSep 19TWE

D2-2HHCSep 12TWE

L0-3Rijnsburgse BoysSep 5TWE

W2-0Be Quick 1887Sep 1KNV

W2-0ROHDA RaalteAug 29TWE

W3-2GVVV VeenendaalAug 22TWE

L1-3KloetingeAug 15TWE

L2-3HHCMay 23TWE

D1-1GVVV VeenendaalMay 16TWE

W3-2Excelsior MaassluisMay 9TWE

W3-0RKAV VolendamApr 25TWE

L1-5HoekApr 18TWE

L0-3Sparta Rotterdam IIApr 11TWE

W2-0SpakenburgMar 28TWE

L1-2Koninklijke HFCMar 21TWE

Squad & Injuries

Groene Ster

2 available

Attackers1

Midfielders1

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

AFC Amsterdam

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4