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Predictions graded

Gainsborough3Leamington 0

HT 2–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Leamington's 1-1 draw with Gainsborough on 19 September sends the tie back to Gainsborough, where the hosts have won two and lost three of five home games and Leamington have lost four of five away.

A tight, goals-in-it cup tie is the likeliest shape, with Gainsborough the marginal pick. No quoted price is worth backing: Over 2.5 at 1.67 is the closest to fair, while Gainsborough at 2.05 and both teams to score at 1.57 ask more than the form supports.

Context

Leamington led at half-time before Gainsborough levelled, so both sides have fresh evidence of scoring and conceding in this tie. Neither club has drawn any of its five home or away games this season, yet the first meeting was level, which is exactly the tension in the replay. Gainsborough's home record (two wins, three defeats, no draws) and Leamington's away record (one win, four defeats) both lean away from a repeat stalemate.
- Leamington 1-1 Gainsborough Trinity, FA Cup, 19 September 2026.
Leamington travel to Gainsborough on the back of a split that has produced goals at both ends and only one win.
This away split is the clearest single argument for Gainsborough, who have home advantage in the replay. Leamington's five away games have averaged four goals in total, most of them against them, and they have kept one clean sheet on the road. They did win once away, so the record is poor rather than hopeless, and both teams scored in three of the five.
- Leamington away (5 matches): 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses.
- Goals per away game: 1.2 scored, 2.8 conceded, 4.0 in total.
- 1 clean sheet and both teams scoring in 3 of the 5 away matches.
Gainsborough's home matches have been tight, low-scoring early, and short of clean sheets at the final whistle.
The home record offers little comfort: three defeats in five, with only one match at home where both teams scored. Before half-time they have been hard to break down at home, which supports the idea of a level or narrow first half even though the overall goals numbers point higher. Leamington's away games, by contrast, have averaged two first-half goals, so that pattern could break either way.
- Gainsborough home (5 matches): 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses.
- Home goals per game: 1.2 scored, 1.4 conceded; first-half 0.4 scored, 0.0 conceded.
- 1 clean sheet and both teams scoring in 1 of the 5 home matches.
The 2013 result is old enough to say little about Tuesday's teams, so it should be treated as background rather than form. It does mean Gainsborough host the pairing for the first time in the record, with no previous away display by Leamington in this fixture to lean on. Both prior meetings were settled at Leamington's ground, where the 2026 tie also finished level.
- Leamington 2-0 Gainsborough Trinity, FA Trophy, 16 November 2013.
- Both meetings listed in the brief were played at Leamington (2013 and 19 September 2026).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gainsborough or Leamington

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Gainsborough have home advantage and face a Leamington side that has lost four of five away games while conceding heavily, though Gainsborough's own home form is mixed. Leamington have a poor away record but did win one away game, and Gainsborough's home form is inconsistent with three defeats, leaving an away win possible.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 76.9%

−5.9ppshort

Leamington's away matches have produced first-half goals, and their early scoring and conceding record points to at least one goal before the break.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Gainsborough

2.05fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 48.8%

−1.8ppshort

Gainsborough have home advantage and face a Leamington side that has lost four of five away games while conceding heavily, though Gainsborough's own home form is mixed.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Gainsborough have home advantage and face a Leamington side that has lost four of five away games while conceding heavily, though Gainsborough's own home form is mixed.
- Gainsborough overall: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 11 competitive matches.
- Leamington away: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses in 5, conceding 2.8 goals per away match.
- Gainsborough home: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in 5, scoring 1.2 goals per home match.
- Previous FA Cup meeting finished 1-1 at Leamington on 19 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGainsboroughEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half profiles are low-scoring, and Gainsborough rarely score early at home, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Gainsborough home first-half goals for: 0.4; against: 0.0.
- Leamington away first-half goals for: 0.8; against: 1.2.
- Gainsborough overall first-half goals for: 0.73; against: 0.36.
- Leamington overall first-half goals for: 0.8; against: 0.7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gainsborough have home advantage and face a Leamington side that has lost four of five away games while conceding heavily, though Gainsborough's own home form is mixed. Leamington have a poor away record but did win one away game, and Gainsborough's home form is inconsistent with three defeats, leaving an away win possible.
- Gainsborough overall: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 11 competitive matches.
- Leamington away: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses in 5, conceding 2.8 goals per away match.
- Leamington overall: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses in 10 competitive matches.
- Leamington away: 1 win, 4 losses in 5, including a 2-0 win at Stourbridge.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGainsborough or LeamingtonEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gainsborough have not conceded a first-half goal at home, while Leamington often concede early on their travels, giving the home side a chance to lead at the break. Both teams' first-half profiles are low-scoring, and Gainsborough rarely score early at home, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Gainsborough home first-half goals for: 0.4 per match.
- Gainsborough home first-half goals against: 0.0 per match.
- Gainsborough home first-half goals for: 0.4; against: 0.0.
- Leamington away first-half goals for: 0.8; against: 1.2.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGainsborough or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced goals, and Leamington's away games average four goals, pointing to at least three total.
- Gainsborough overall average total goals per match: 3.09 (1.73 for, 1.36 against).
- Leamington away average total goals per match: 4.0 (1.2 for, 2.8 against).
- Leamington overall average total goals per match: 3.1 (1.2 for, 1.9 against).
- Gainsborough home average total goals per match: 2.6 (1.2 for, 1.4 against).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Leamington score regularly and concede often, while Gainsborough have scored in most recent matches, making both teams finding the net likely.
- Leamington overall both teams scored in 7 of 10 competitive matches.
- Leamington away both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.
- Gainsborough recent 4 of last 6 matches saw both teams score.
- Gainsborough home both teams scored in only 1 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Leamington's away matches have produced first-half goals, and their early scoring and conceding record points to at least one goal before the break.
- Combined home/away first-half total goals per match: 1.2 (Gainsborough home 0.4, Leamington away 2.0).
- Gainsborough overall first-half total goals per match: 1.09.
- Leamington overall first-half total goals per match: 1.5.
- Leamington away first-half total goals per match: 2.0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have been high-scoring, especially Leamington away and Gainsborough at home, so two or more goals after the break is likely.
- Gainsborough home second-half total goals per match: 2.2 (0.8 for, 1.4 against).
- Leamington away second-half total goals per match: 2.0 (0.4 for, 1.6 against).
- Gainsborough overall second-half total goals per match: 2.0.
- Leamington overall second-half total goals per match: 1.6.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance61%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

D1-1LeamingtonvGainsborough TrinitySep 19, 2026FAC

L2-0LeamingtonvGainsborough TrinityNov 16, 2013FA

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Gainsborough

D1-1LeamingtonSep 19FAC

L0-2AvroSep 12NON

W4-2Sherwood CollierySep 5FAC

L0-3Cleethorpes TownAug 31NON

W2-1Ashton UnitedAug 28NON

D2-2QuornAug 25NON

L0-1BuryAug 22NON

W4-1Stockton TownAug 18NON

W3-0United of ManchesterAug 15NON

L1-2Alfreton TownAug 11NON

W2-0WorkingtonAug 8NON

L0-2Bradford (Park Avenue)Aug 1FRI

D0-0DoncasterJul 25FRI

L2-3FC Halifax TownJul 21FRI

D1-1Basford UnitedJul 18FRI

Leamington

D1-1Gainsborough TrinitySep 19FAC

L1-3Bishop's StortfordSep 12NON

W3-1Ilkeston TownSep 5FAC

W2-0StourbridgeSep 1NON

D1-1Worcester CityAug 29NON

L0-3Bury TownAug 22NON

L0-1Kettering TownAug 15NON

D1-1Anstey NomadsAug 11NON

L2-4Real BedfordAug 8NON

W3-1Yate TownAug 1FRI

L2-3Coventry City U21Jul 17FRI

D2-2Brackley TownJul 14FRI

D0-0WalsallJul 11FRI

W3-1Sutton Coldfield TownJul 7FRI

L1-4BuxtonApr 25NAT

Squad & Injuries

Gainsborough

22 available

Attackers4

Midfielders5

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Leamington

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders14

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Gainsborough or Leamington

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Gainsborough

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Gainsborough

Leamington

Squad & Injuries

Gainsborough

Leamington