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FarnboroughUxbridge

Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:4522 Sept, 18:45

16Probabilities6Priced6Edges90%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 14:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Farnborough have one win in four home games and one goal in them; Uxbridge, beaten twice in 15 competitive matches since April, are the likelier winners and the draw is a live fallback.

Draw or Uxbridge at 2.7 is the strongest of six qualifying prices, alongside Uxbridge at 5.5, the half-time pair at 5.0 and 1.83, under 2.5 goals at 2.63 and both teams not to score at 2.15. Farnborough at 1.4 does not appeal.

Context

No confirmed availability news for either side. The sporting picture rests on Uxbridge's two defeats in 15 competitive matches since 3 April against Farnborough's single win and single goal in four home games.

Both teams come into this tie off the same match, a 2-2 draw they played against each other.
This is the most recent match for both clubs, so neither arrives with a fresh result behind it and the two managers have just seen each other up close. Farnborough scored twice in it even though they have managed one goal in four home games this season, which is the clearest counterweight to the idea that they will be kept out at home. Uxbridge have scored in 13 of their 15 competitive matches since 3 April, so the same game showed they can be got at as well.
- 19 Sep 2026, FA Cup at Uxbridge: Uxbridge 2-2 Farnborough; first half 1-1, each side scoring once in each half.
Home form is the weakest strand of Farnborough's season, and it is a four-match sample rather than a settled pattern.
The four home games produced one win and three defeats with one goal scored, including a 0-1 loss to Dover on 12 September and a 0-4 loss to Tonbridge Angels on 5 September. That is the record Uxbridge's defence will be tested against, and it is why the home side's attacking output is the open question in this tie. Uxbridge have managed one clean sheet in seven away matches, so the four-game sample points a direction rather than settling anything.
- Home split 15 Aug–12 Sep 2026: 4 matches, 1W 0D 3L, 1 goal scored.
Uxbridge carry the better season into this tie, although the away half of that record is noticeably softer.
Two defeats in five months of competitive football is the strongest single line either side brings to this fixture, and Uxbridge have scored 13 goals across those 15 matches. The away split tempers it: 3W 2D 2L on the road with 1.29 goals per away game, and one of those defeats came 1-0 at Berkhamsted on 15 September. Their scoring output clearly drops when they travel, which matters for a tie played at Farnborough.
- Overall 3 Apr–19 Sep 2026: 15 competitive matches, 8W 5D 2L, 13 goals scored and 9 conceded, 2.07 goals per game.
- Away split: 7 matches, 3W 2D 2L, 1.29 goals scored per away game.
It is the biggest scoreline in either side's recent run and shows how Uxbridge can finish when a game opens up for them, with two goals before the break and three after it. It came at home, though, and three days later they lost 1-0 away at Berkhamsted, so this looks like their best afternoon rather than the shape of their form. Their away scoring of 1.29 goals per game is the more relevant figure for a trip to Farnborough.
- 12 Sep 2026, Non League Premier Southern South: Uxbridge 5-0 Chichester City; first half 2-0, second half 3-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 90%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 5.50
The read
Uxbridge's stronger form and Farnborough's home struggles point to an away win.
- Uxbridge overall: 8W 5D 2L
- Uxbridge away: 3W 2D 2L
- Farnborough home: 1W 3L
- Uxbridge average 2.07 goals per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerUxbridgeMarket price5.50Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 5.00
The read
Farnborough concede regularly in the first half at home, giving Uxbridge a good chance to lead at the break.
- Uxbridge away first half goals for 0.43
- Farnborough home first half goals against 1.25
BetBugs · First Half WinnerUxbridgeMarket price5.00Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown moderate second-half scoring, but a draw in the second half is the most likely single outcome.
- Farnborough home second half goals for 0.25
- Uxbridge away second half goals for 0.86
- Uxbridge away second half goals against 0.57
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.70
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to draw, and the recent cup tie was level. Uxbridge's stronger form and Farnborough's home struggles point to an away win.
- Recent head-to-head ended 2-2
- Farnborough drew 2 of 9 competitive matches
- Uxbridge overall: 8W 5D 2L
- Uxbridge away: 3W 2D 2L
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or UxbridgeMarket price2.70Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring, so a level first half is a strong possibility. Farnborough concede regularly in the first half at home, giving Uxbridge a good chance to lead at the break.
- Farnborough home first half goals for 0
- Uxbridge away first half goals against 0.43
- Uxbridge away first half goals for 0.43
- Farnborough home first half goals against 1.25
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or UxbridgeMarket price1.83Estimated chance90%

Goals11 outcomes · top 90%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.63
The read
Despite some high-scoring games, the expected total is close to the line, and Farnborough's home matches have been low-scoring for them.
- Farnborough overall average 0.89 goals for
- Uxbridge away average 1.29 goals for
- Combined expected goals around 2.15
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price2.63Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Farnborough's home scoring struggles make a clean sheet for Uxbridge or a match without both scoring more likely.
- Farnborough failed to score in 3 of 4 home games
- Uxbridge kept 1 clean sheet in 7 away
- Uxbridge scored 0 in 1 of last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price2.15Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Farnborough's home attack has been very poor, so under 1.5 is highly likely.
- Farnborough home goals for average 0.25
- 1 goal in 4 home matches
- 3 of 4 home games saw them score 0 or 1
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalFarnborough under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uxbridge's away scoring is moderate, and Farnborough's home defense may not be as leaky as their overall record suggests.
- Uxbridge away goals for average 1.29
- Uxbridge scored 0 or 1 in 4 of 7 away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalUxbridge under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Uxbridge score regularly, so Farnborough are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Farnborough home clean sheets 1 in 4
- Uxbridge scored in 13 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreUxbridge to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Farnborough's home scoring is poor, so Uxbridge have a good chance of a clean sheet.
- Farnborough failed to score in 3 of 4 home games
- Uxbridge away clean sheets 1 in 7
- Farnborough overall scored in 5 of 9
BetBugs · Team to ScoreFarnborough not to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Farnborough win to nil requires both a win and a clean sheet, which is very unlikely given their form.
- Farnborough home wins 1 in 4
- Farnborough home clean sheets 1 in 4
- Uxbridge scored in 13 of 15
BetBugs · Home Win to NilNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While Uxbridge may win, keeping a clean sheet is not their strong suit away from home.
- Uxbridge away clean sheets 1 in 7
- Farnborough scored in 1 of 4 home games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With Farnborough's defensive issues early on, at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Farnborough home first half goals against 1.25
- Uxbridge away first half goals for 0.43
- Combined expected first-half goals >1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With Farnborough's first-half scoring drought, it is unlikely both teams score in the first half.
- Farnborough home first half goals for 0
- Uxbridge away first half goals for 0.43
- Uxbridge away first half goals against 0.43
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The expected second-half total is below 1.5, so under is favored.
- Farnborough home second half goals for 0.25
- Uxbridge away second half goals against 0.57
- Combined expected second-half goals around 1.09
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D2-2UxbridgevFarnboroughSep 19, 2026FAC

4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Farnborough

D2-2UxbridgeSep 19FAC

L0-1DoverSep 12NAT

L0-2Hampton & RichmondSep 8NAT

L0-4Tonbridge AngelsSep 5NAT

W2-0BraintreeAug 31NAT

D1-1MaidenheadAug 22NAT

W1-0Chesham UnitedAug 19NAT

L0-2Hemel Hempstead TownAug 15NAT

W2-1Maidstone UtdAug 8NAT

W3-0Bath CityAug 1FRI

D1-1PortsmouthJul 29FRI

L1-2Aldershot TownJul 18FRI

L1-2ReadingJul 11FRI

W1-0Ashford Town (Middlesex)Jul 7FRI

W3-1CobhamJul 4FRI

Uxbridge

D2-2FarnboroughSep 19FAC

L0-1BerkhamstedSep 15NON

W5-0Chichester CitySep 12NON

W3-0Haywards Heath TownSep 5FAC

D0-0Wimborne TownAug 31NON

W2-1Bath CityAug 29NON

W5-4Taunton TownAug 22NON

D1-1Gosport BoroughAug 15NON

W2-0Havant & WvilleAug 11NON

W2-0Chippenham TownAug 8NON

D3-3Poole TownApr 25NON

D1-1Walton & HershamApr 18NON

L1-2Taunton TownApr 11NON

W2-0Hanwell TownApr 6NON

W2-1Gosport BoroughApr 3NON

Squad & Injuries

Farnborough

38 available

Attackers15

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper1

Uxbridge

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Uxbridge

Uxbridge

Draw or Uxbridge

Uxbridge

Under 2.5

No

Result5 outcomes · top 90%

Goals11 outcomes · top 90%

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Farnborough

Uxbridge

Squad & Injuries

Farnborough

Uxbridge