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Predictions graded

Zemplin Michalovce1Dukla Banska Bystrica0

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges4–450%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 17:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Michalovce are the likely winners based on home form and Dukla's poor away record, but the odds offer no value.

All major markets show negative edges, so the best action is to avoid betting this match.

Context

Dukla Banska Bystrica are 9th in the Super Liga with 7 points from 8 matches.
Their away record is poor: 1 win and 3 losses in 4 away games, with 1 goal scored and 8 conceded. This suggests they may struggle to create chances and defend against Zemplin Michalovce, who have a solid home record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses in 4 matches, 1 goal for, 8 against.
- Recent away league results: lost 0-3 to FK Košice on 2026-09-06, lost 0-3 to Spartak Trnava on 2026-08-08, lost 0-2 to Dunajska Streda on 2026-08-02.
Zemplín defender M. Koscelník was sent off against Trenčín and received a two-match ban starting 6 September.
Whether he has served that suspension remains unresolved, so his availability for this fixture is uncertain. If unavailable, Zemplín must adjust their defensive selection without a player who started in that Trenčín win.
- SFZ suspended Martin Koscelník for two competitive matches from 6 September for the red-card offence against Trenčín.
- Michalovce's official report records his 37th-minute red card in the 3-1 win over Trenčín.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:36 · Europe/BucharestSFZ official disciplinary reportsportnet.sme.sk · 11 Sep 2026MFK Zemplín match report: Michalovce 3-1 Trenčínmfkzemplin.sk · 5 Sep 2026
Zemplin Michalovce are 6th in the Super Liga with 10 points from 8 matches.
Their home form is solid: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 4 home games, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. This gives them a clear advantage against a Dukla Banska Bystrica side that has struggled on the road.
- Home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 4 matches, 6 goals for, 3 against.
- Recent home league results: won 3-1 vs AS Trencin on 2026-09-05, won 2-0 vs Skalica on 2026-08-22, drew 1-1 vs Komárno on 2026-08-08.
Zemplín's coach Anton Šoltis said Ružomberok won the long-ball and behind-the-defence duels, and a midfield turnover led to Ružomberok's second goal.
That direct-play exposure is a recent defensive-organisation weakness Zemplín must address against Dukla. The evidence is limited to one match, but it identifies a specific pattern opponents may target.
- Šoltis said Ružomberok dominated long balls and passes behind Zemplín's defence, with his team losing nearly all of those duels.
- Ružomberok scored their second goal after intercepting a Michalovce pass in midfield.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:36 · Europe/BucharestMFK Zemplín match report: Ružomberok 3-0 Michalovcemfkzemplin.sk · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Zemplin Michalovce

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Michalovce's home form is solid (2W 1D 1L) and Dukla's away record is poor (1W 0D 3L), but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zemplin Michalovce or Draw

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Michalovce's home form and Dukla's away struggles make a home win or draw likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches and H2H history suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, with Dukla's leaky away defense a key factor.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Michalovce's home scoring record and Dukla's defensive frailty away suggest both teams are likely to find the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Dukla's tendency to concede early, especially away, and the H2H pattern support at least one first-half goal.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zemplin Michalovce to score

1.35fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Dukla's poor away defensive record and Michalovce's home scoring form make an away clean sheet unlikely.

Total Goals HomelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Michalovce's home scoring and Dukla's away defensive weakness support the home team scoring at least twice.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Dukla's away scoring struggles and Michalovce's solid home defense suggest the away team will score at most one goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Michalovce's strong home form and Dukla's poor away record, combined with a positive H2H trend, make the home side the most likely winner.
- Home record: 2W 1D 1L, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 4 home league matches
- Away record: 1W 0D 3L, 1 goal scored, 8 conceded in 4 away league matches
- H2H last 5: Michalovce won 3, drew 1, lost 1 (including 3-2 away win in May 2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZemplin MichalovceEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Michalovce's solid home form and Dukla's struggles away make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Home record: 2W 1D 1L, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 4 home league matches
- Away record: 1W 0D 3L, 1 goal scored, 8 conceded in 4 away league matches
- H2H last 5: Michalovce won 3, drew 1, lost 1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZemplin Michalovce or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Michalovce's home advantage and Dukla's poor first-half record give the home side a slight edge, but the probability remains low.
- Michalovce led at half-time in 27% of matches overall
- Dukla trailed at half-time in 47% of matches overall
- H2H last 5: Michalovce led at half-time in 2 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostZemplin MichalovceEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win from start to finish is possible given Dukla's away struggles, but the low probability reflects the risk of a draw or comeback.
- Michalovce home record: 2W 1D 1L, with both wins by 2+ goals
- Dukla away record: 1W 0D 3L, with all losses by 2+ goals
- H2H last 5: Michalovce won 3, drew 1, lost 1
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostZemplin Michalovce/Zemplin MichalovceEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, with Dukla's leaky away defense a key factor.
- Dukla away matches average 2.25 total goals (1 scored, 8 conceded in 4 games)
- Michalovce home matches average 2.25 total goals (6 scored, 3 conceded in 4 games)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Michalovce's home scoring record and Dukla's defensive frailty away suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- Michalovce scored in 3 of 4 home league matches
- Dukla conceded in all 4 away league matches (8 goals)
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dukla's tendency to concede early, especially away, and the H2H pattern support at least one first-half goal.
- Michalovce first-half goals: 0.5 average overall, but 2 goals in last home league match
- Dukla first-half goals conceded: 1.1 average overall, 3 in last away league match
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown second-half scoring and conceding patterns, but the low confidence reflects limited direct evidence.
- Dukla's last away match had 3 second-half goals (0-3 vs FK Košice)
- Michalovce's last home match had 2 second-half goals (3-1 vs AS Trencin)
- H2H last 5: second-half goals in all 5 meetings
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dukla's away scoring struggles and Michalovce's home defensive record make a home clean sheet possible, but not highly likely.
- Michalovce kept 2 clean sheets in 4 home league matches
- Dukla failed to score in 3 of 4 away league matches
- H2H last 5: Michalovce kept 2 clean sheets against Dukla
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDukla Banska Bystrica not to scoreEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dukla's poor away defensive record and Michalovce's home scoring form make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Dukla conceded in all 4 away league matches (8 goals)
- Michalovce scored in 3 of 4 home league matches
- H2H last 5: Dukla kept only 1 clean sheet against Michalovce
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZemplin Michalovce to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Michalovce's home scoring and Dukla's away defensive weakness support the home team scoring at least twice.
- Michalovce home average: 1.5 goals per match (6 in 4)
- Dukla away average conceded: 2.0 goals per match (8 in 4)
- H2H last 5: Michalovce scored 2+ goals in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostZemplin Michalovce over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dukla's away scoring struggles and Michalovce's solid home defense suggest the away team will score at most one goal.
- Dukla away average: 0.25 goals per match (1 in 4)
- Michalovce home average conceded: 0.75 goals per match (3 in 4)
- H2H last 5: Dukla scored 1 goal or fewer in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDukla Banska Bystrica under 1.5Estimated chance60%