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Predictions graded

Argentinos Juniors1Gimnasia de La Plata1

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 14–9On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 05:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Argentinos Juniors are unbeaten at home, but the odds (1.70) imply a 59% win probability versus our 45% estimate, offering negative value.

The confirmed departure of midfielder Alan Lescano and Gimnasia's solid away record further reduce the edge. Avoid the home win and double chance markets; no clear betting value exists in this match.

Context

Argentinos Juniors are top of Clausura Group B with 17 points from eight matches. Their home record in this phase is perfect.
In the Clausura, Argentinos have played three home games and won them all, beating Aldosivi 2-1, Racing Club 2-1, and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3-0. They have scored seven goals and conceded two at home. This strong home form suggests they can control the match against Gimnasia, who have lost two of their four away games in this phase.
- Argentinos Juniors have won all 3 home matches in Clausura Group B.
- Home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for, 2 goals against.
- Recent home wins: 2-1 vs Aldosivi (2026-08-30), 2-1 vs Racing Club (2026-08-09), 3-0 vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (2026-07-29).
Argentinos Juniors midfielder A. Lescano has completed a move to Vasco da Gama and is no longer available to Nicolás Diez.
His absence removes a current midfield selection option, forcing Argentinos to redistribute progression and chance-creation duties. The team must adjust without a player who was not in the squad for the 7 September draw at Barracas, so the exact replacement and tactical shift remain uncertain.
- ge reported that Vasco announced the signing of Alan Lescano on 9 September and that he signed a four-year contract.
- Argentinos' official report of the 7 September draw at Barracas listed neither Lescano in the starting XI nor among the substitutes.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:42 · Europe/Bucharestge: Vasco announces Alan Lescano signingge.globo.com · 9 Sep 2026Argentinos Juniors: Empate en Barracasargentinosjuniors.com.ar · 7 Sep 2026
Gimnasia de La Plata are third in Clausura Group B with 15 points. Their away record in this phase is inconsistent.
Gimnasia have played four away games in the Clausura, winning two and losing two. They beat Rosario Central 2-1 and Aldosivi 2-1, but lost to Estudiantes L.P. 0-4 and Racing Club 1-2. They have conceded eight goals in those four away matches, an average of two per game. Against an Argentinos side that is strong at home, this defensive record could be a problem.
- Gimnasia away record in Clausura: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses.
- Away goals: 5 for, 8 against.
- Away losses: 0-4 vs Estudiantes L.P. (2026-08-15), 1-2 vs Racing Club (2026-07-24).
Gimnasia de La Plata head coach Ariel Pereyra is weighing an unchanged XI after wins over Tigre and another recent league match.
If the lineup is retained, Argentinos can prepare against a more stable version of Gimnasia's recent central-forward support and wide-delivery routes. The selection remains unconfirmed until the official team sheet, so preparation still carries some uncertainty.
- El Día reported on 9 September that Ariel Pereyra was evaluating keeping the same starting eleven for the visit to Argentinos after the win over Tigre.
- Gimnasia's official report of the 5 September win over Tigre listed Miramón and Seoane behind Janson, Fernández, Zalazar and Auzmendi.
ReportedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:42 · Europe/BucharestEl Día: Pereyra evaluates unchanged XI at Argentinoswww.eldia.com · 10 Sep 2026Gimnasia: 2-1 win over Tigrewww.gimnasia.org.ar · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Argentinos Juniors

1.70fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Our model gives Argentinos a 45% chance, but the odds imply 59%, so the price is too short relative to our assessment.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Argentinos Juniors or Draw

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85%

−7.0ppshort

Our model gives 78% for home or draw, but the odds imply 85%, leaving no edge.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.13fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47%

0.0ppshort

Our model gives 45% for a first-half draw, but the odds imply 47%, so no value exists.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring rates and solid defensive records, making a low-scoring match likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Argentinos' strong home form and Gimnasia's inconsistent away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Argentinos are unbeaten at home this season with 6 wins and 3 draws in 9 home matches.
- Gimnasia have lost 3 of their 8 away matches this season.
- Argentinos have won 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArgentinos JuniorsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's unbeaten home record makes a home win or draw highly likely, driven by the structural home/away edge.
- Argentinos have not lost at home this season (6W, 3D).
- Gimnasia have only won 4 of 8 away matches, with 3 losses.
- Argentinos have lost only 3 of 16 total matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArgentinos Juniors or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams' first-half scoring patterns suggest a balanced opening period, making a draw at half-time the most likely outcome.
- Argentinos have drawn at half-time in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimnasia have drawn at half-time in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates, leading to balanced first halves.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a home win is plausible given Argentinos' second-half dominance at home, but the specific sequence is less certain.
- Argentinos have won 6 of 9 home matches, often after a level first half.
- Gimnasia have lost 3 of 8 away matches, with some losses coming after a level first half.
- The home side's second-half strength is supported by their higher possession and shot numbers.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Argentinos JuniorsEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and solid defensive records, making a low-scoring match likely.
- Argentinos average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Gimnasia average 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match for both teams is 2.6, but recent matches show lower scoring trends.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and have shown defensive vulnerabilities, supporting both teams scoring.
- Argentinos have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Gimnasia have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have conceded in over half of their recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Argentinos average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Gimnasia average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.2, below the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, but the margin is small, leading to a low-confidence over prediction.
- Argentinos average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Gimnasia average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.8, slightly above the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a slight lean towards over 8.5 corners.
- Argentinos average 5.9 corners per match and concede 3.1 opponent corners.
- Gimnasia average 3.5 corners per match and concede 5.9 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners per match is 9.4, above the 8.5 line.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a decent number of shots on target, and the combined average narrowly supports over 8.5.
- Argentinos average 4.9 shots on target per match and concede 3.1 opponent shots on target.
- Gimnasia average 4.0 shots on target per match and concede 4.5 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target per match is 8.9, slightly above the 8.5 line.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, and the combined average supports over 4.5 cards.
- Argentinos average 2.5 yellow cards per match and 0.4 red cards.
- Gimnasia average 2.9 yellow cards per match and 1.0 red cards.
- Combined average cards per match is 5.4, above the 4.5 line.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds are significantly shorter than our model's estimate, offering negative value.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L2-0Gimnasia L.P.vArgentinos JRSMay 3, 2026LIG

L1-0Gimnasia L.P.vArgentinos JRSSep 2, 2024LIG

L2-0Argentinos JRSvGimnasia L.P.Mar 6, 2024COP

L3-2Gimnasia L.P.vArgentinos JRSOct 19, 2023COP

W2-4Argentinos JRSvGimnasia L.P.Apr 25, 2023LIG

Gimnasia de La Plata: 3 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Argentinos Juniors Knockout Phase	16	8	5	3	17-13	29	DWDLW
6	Gimnasia de La Plata Knockout Phase	16	8	2	6	19-19	26	WWLLW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Argentinos Juniors

D0-0Barracas CentralSep 7LIG

W2-1AldosiviAug 30LIG

D1-1LanusAug 25LIG

L0-2River PlateAug 16LIG

W2-1Racing ClubAug 9LIG

W1-0Belgrano CordobaAug 1LIG

W3-0Estudiantes de Rio CuartoJul 29LIG

W3-2Sarmiento JuninJul 23LIG

W2-0LanusMay 10LIG

L0-2Gimnasia L.P.May 3LIG

W2-1HuracanApr 28LIG

W1-0Atletico TucumanApr 19LIG

L1-3Independ. RivadaviaApr 11LIG

W3-2BanfieldApr 6LIG

W2-0AldosiviMar 31LIG

Gimnasia de La Plata

W2-1TigreSep 5LIG

W2-1Rosario CentralAug 29LIG

L2-3Gimnasia M.Aug 22LIG

L0-4Estudiantes L.P.Aug 15LIG

W2-0Barracas CentralAug 9LIG

W2-1AldosiviAug 2LIG

W1-0River PlateJul 29LIG

L1-2Racing ClubJul 24LIG

W3-1Dinamo MakhachkalaJul 7FRI

D1-1ZenitJul 5FRI

L0-2River PlateMay 14LIG

W1-0Velez SarsfieldMay 11LIG

W2-0Argentinos JRSMay 3LIG

W1-0Belgrano CordobaApr 26LIG

W3-0AcassusoApr 22COP

Squad & Injuries

Argentinos Juniors

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Gimnasia de La Plata

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Argentinos Juniors

Argentinos Juniors or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Argentinos Juniors

Argentinos Juniors or Draw

@ 1.30

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Argentinos Juniors

Gimnasia de La Plata

Squad & Injuries

Argentinos Juniors

Gimnasia de La Plata