Copa ChileFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back Deportes Recoleta or Draw at 2.05 (13-point edge) and the first-half draw at 2.30 (12-point edge).
Avoid the match winner draw and O'Higgins -1 handicap, as they offer no value. Expect a tight, low-scoring first half with goals more likely after the break.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 48.8% · BetBugs 62%
Recoleta are unbeaten in 5 of their last 7 at home while O'Higgins have lost 4 of their last 7 away, making the home double chance a clear value at 2.05.
Market 43.5% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams have drawn the first half in roughly half their recent matches and the H2H was 0-0 at the break, making the half-time draw a strong value at 2.30.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, and the H2H saw goals at both ends.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 26% leaves no cushion vs our 34% estimate; the draw is already priced as the least likely outcome and offers no value.
