Primera CFull time

Predictions graded

Leones de Rosario2Deportivo Muniz1

HT 1–0Tue 25 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Leones de Rosario are favored at home against Deportivo Muniz, but the odds are too short across all markets.

The coaching change and low-scoring trends are already priced in, leaving no betting value. Best to avoid this match or wait for live betting opportunities.

Context

Franco Ferlazzo was dismissed after a six-match winless run.
- Alejandro Ojeda was previously the club's sixth-tier coach.
- The original 10 August fixture was postponed, delaying Ojeda's debut.
Leones have won 4 of their last 5 home matches overall.
- In their last 5 home matches, they have W2 D1 L2.
- They have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
Muniz have 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses away from home.
- They have scored only 6 goals in 12 away matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
Leones average 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Muniz average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Both teams have drawn 10 of 24 matches this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Leones de Rosario

1.70fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Leones' superior league position and home form are offset by a poor recent run and coaching upheaval, making the market's 59% implied probability too high relative to our 45% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Leones de Rosario or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Leones' strong home record and Muniz's poor away form support a high probability, but the market's 80% implied probability is slightly above our 75% estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.92fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, but the market's 52% implied probability is higher than our 45% estimate, indicating no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low scoring rates and recent matches frequently feature fewer than three goals, but the odds already price in a strong under bias.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams struggle to score consistently, but the market heavily favors BTTS No, leaving no value on the predicted outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, but the odds are extremely short, offering no value despite the high probability.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.15fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Second-half scoring is even lower for both teams, but the market has priced this as a near-certainty, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leones de Rosario's superior league position, better recent form, and previous H2H win give them a clear edge, though their inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Leones de Rosario sit 7th in Group B with 34 points, while Deportivo Muniz are 14th with 22 points.
- Leones have won 4 of their last 5 home matches (W2 D1 L2 in last 5 overall, but home form stronger).
- Deportivo Muniz have lost 4 of their last 5 matches overall.
- H2H: Leones won the only prior meeting 2-1 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeones de RosarioEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams draw frequently, and Leones' strong home record combined with Muniz's poor away form makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Leones de Rosario have drawn 10 of 24 matches this season.
- Deportivo Muniz have drawn 10 of 24 matches, including 6 away draws.
- Leones have lost only 3 of 12 home matches this season.
- Deportivo Muniz have won only 2 of 12 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLeones de Rosario or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at the break, with low first-half scoring and similar first-half performance metrics.
- Leones de Rosario have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Muniz have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Both teams average similar first-half goal rates (0.5 vs 0.5).
- H2H: The only prior meeting was 1-1 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high draw frequency for both teams and low scoring, a draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Leones de Rosario have drawn 10 of 24 matches overall.
- Deportivo Muniz have drawn 10 of 24 matches overall.
- Both teams have drawn at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Low scoring rates increase the chance of a stalemate.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, and their recent matches frequently feature fewer than three goals, supporting an under 2.5 outcome.
- Leones de Rosario average 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Deportivo Muniz average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams is under 2.0.
- Leones' last 5 matches: 0-1, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2 (3 of 5 under 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score consistently, and Muniz's poor away scoring record makes it likely at least one team fails to find the net.
- Leones de Rosario have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Muniz have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Leones have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Muniz have scored only 6 goals in 12 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.
- Leones de Rosario average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Deportivo Muniz average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.0 per match.
- In Leones' last 5 matches, only 2 had more than 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is even lower than first-half for both teams, supporting under 1.5 goals in the second half.
- Leones de Rosario average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Deportivo Muniz average 0.2 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined second-half goal average is 0.75 per match.
- Recent matches show few late goals, with both teams often drawing 0-0 or 1-1.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league averages and the teams' low attacking output to predict a moderate corner count under 8.5.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams have low possession and shot stats, suggesting fewer attacking opportunities.
- Primera C matches typically average around 8-9 corners total.
- No direct corner averages provided, so this is an estimate based on league norms.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With no card data available, we estimate a typical card count for a low-intensity match, leaning under 4.5 cards.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average 0 yellow cards per match according to provided data (likely missing).
- Primera C matches typically see around 4-5 cards total.
- No disciplinary trends are evident from the data.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 59% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and ignores Leones' poor recent form and coaching change.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W1-2Deportivo MuñizvLeones de RosarioApr 13, 2026PRI

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera C 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Leones de Rosario Promotion - Primera C (Promotion - Play Offs)	24	8	10	6	22-21	34	LWDDL
14	Deportivo Muniz Torneo Promocional Amateur (Relegation - Play Offs)	24	4	10	10	16-24	22	LLDWL

12pt gap between teamsDeportivo Muniz in relegation zone

Recent Form

Leones de Rosario

L0-1CanuelasAug 22PRI

W2-0Defensores de CambaceresAug 17PRI

D1-1Centro EspañolAug 4PRI

D0-0Deportivo EspañolJul 31PRI

L0-2Central CordobaJul 25PRI

D1-1ClaypoleJul 13PRI

L0-1Central BallesterJul 4PRI

D0-0El PorvenirJun 27PRI

W1-0FénixJun 15PRI

W2-0Sportivo BarracasJun 6PRI

L0-2LujanMay 30PRI

W2-1General LamadridMay 23PRI

D2-2LuganoMay 16PRI

D0-0YupanquiMay 9PRI

L2-3Atletico AtlasMay 3PRI

Deportivo Muniz

L0-2General LamadridAug 21PRI

L0-1Juventud UnidaAug 18PRI

D1-1Atletico AtlasJul 30PRI

W1-0CanuelasJul 25PRI

L0-3JJ UrquizaJul 18PRI

W1-0YupanquiJul 11PRI

D1-1Deportivo EspañolJul 6PRI

D0-0Central CordobaJun 27PRI

L1-2ClaypoleJun 14PRI

W4-0Central BallesterJun 7PRI

L1-2El PorvenirMay 30PRI

W1-0FénixMay 25PRI

L0-1Leandro N. AlemMay 17PRI

D0-0Sportivo BarracasMay 11PRI

L0-2LujanMay 4PRI

Squad & Injuries

Leones de Rosario

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Deportivo Muniz

1 available

Attackers1

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0