CA Fenix Pilar
Market 23.1% · BetBugs 38%
CA Fenix Pilar's stronger recent form and Claypole's poor home defensive record give the away side a clear edge, with the market pricing them far too high.
Primera CFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back CA Fenix Pilar to win at 4.33 (model edge +15pts) or take Draw/Fenix Pilar double chance at 1.90 (+9pts).
The match is likely to be low-scoring, but Under 2.5 goals at 1.40 offers no value. Avoid Claypole in all markets, as their home record and recent form do not justify the short prices.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
CA Fenix PilarMarket 23.1% · BetBugs 38%
CA Fenix Pilar's stronger recent form and Claypole's poor home defensive record give the away side a clear edge, with the market pricing them far too high.
Market 52.6% · BetBugs 62%
Claypole's low home win rate and CA Fenix Pilar's moderate away form make the double chance of away win or draw the most likely outcome, and the market underestimates it.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%
The high frequency of drawn first halves for both teams makes a half-time draw the most likely outcome, but the odds are too short to offer value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 55% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers no value.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Claypole | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 17-30 | 25 |
| 12 | CA Fenix Pilar | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 19-25 | 26 |

