Huracan
BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%
Huracan's home edge is offset by Deportivo Riestra's recent away resilience (0-0 vs Lanus, 1-1 vs Palestino) and the H2H pattern of low-scoring draws, making the 1.95 price fair rather than value.
Liga Profesional ArgentinaFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Huracan are strong favourites at home against a Deportivo Riestra side that has scored just one away goal all season, but the bookmakers have already priced in the low-scoring, home-dominant script.
The best value may be in avoiding the heavily juiced Under 2.5 goals and first-half Under 1.5 markets, as our model sees significantly lower probabilities than the odds imply. No clear betting edge exists, but the likely outcome is a Huracan win or draw with under 2.5 total goals.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 6
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
HuracanBetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%
Huracan's home edge is offset by Deportivo Riestra's recent away resilience (0-0 vs Lanus, 1-1 vs Palestino) and the H2H pattern of low-scoring draws, making the 1.95 price fair rather than value.
BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%
The market has already priced in Huracan's home advantage and Riestra's away struggles, leaving no cushion at 1.20 despite the high confidence in the outcome.
BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%
Both teams average under 2.0 total goals per match and H2H has been low-scoring, supporting the under.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 24% is close to our 22% estimate; no value and the away side's scoring record is dire.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | HuracanKnockout Phase | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17-13 | 22 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5-12 | 11 |

