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Predictions graded

Universidad Catolica Quito5Manta1

HT 3–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 21–6On targetOn target 11–3CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 16:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Universidad Católica Quito are strong favorites at home against a poor Manta side, but the odds (1.29) already reflect this, offering no value.

Recent H2H shows Manta won the last two meetings, adding risk. Avoid the home win and double chance markets; the over 2.5 goals market is closest to fair value but still slightly negative.

Context

Home record: 8W-2D-2L, 29 goals scored, 11 conceded.
- Recent home results include a 5-0 win over Técnico Universitario and a 2-1 win over Barcelona SC.
- They lost 2-3 to Mushuc Runa at home in July.
Away record: 2W-2D-8L, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- Failed to score in 8 of 12 away matches.
- Only two away wins all season.
1-0 Manta (27 Apr 2026)
- 4-2 Manta (12 Jul 2025)
- 3-0 Universidad Católica (15 Mar 2025)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Universidad Catolica Quito

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Home side are W8-D2-L2 at home this season while away side are W2-D2-L8 away, but the odds already price in a very high probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Universidad Catolica Quito or Draw

1.06fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 94.3%

−9.3ppshort

Home side have lost only 2 of 12 home matches, but the odds leave no room for value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Catolica's home games average 3.33 total goals and Manta concede heavily away, supporting a high-scoring contest.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Universidad Catolica's strong home form and Manta's poor away record, combined with the 23-point gap in the standings, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Home record: 8W-2D-2L, 29 goals scored, 11 conceded in 12 home matches
- Overall: 11W-7D-7L, 40 goals scored, 22 conceded
- Manta away record: 2W-2D-8L, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 away matches
- Manta overall: 4W-5D-16L, 11 goals scored, 32 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUniversidad Catolica QuitoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Catolica's strong home form and Manta's struggles away, the double chance of home win or draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Home team has lost only 2 of 12 home matches
- Manta has won only 2 of 12 away matches
- H2H last 3: Manta won 2, Catolica won 1 (all home wins)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUniversidad Catolica Quito or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Catolica is more likely to lead at halftime given Manta's tendency to trail, but the probability is modest due to low first-half scoring.
- Catolica led at halftime in 20% of matches overall
- Manta trailed at halftime in 47% of matches overall
- Catolica first half goal difference at home: +0.1 (0.6 scored - 0.5 conceded)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUniversidad Catolica QuitoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with Catolica leading at halftime is plausible but not highly probable given their modest first-half scoring.
- Catolica home win rate: 67%
- Catolica led at halftime in 20% of matches
- Manta away loss rate: 67%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonUniversidad Catolica Quito/Universidad Catolica QuitoEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Catolica's home games tend to be high-scoring, and Manta's defense is leaky on the road, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Catolica home matches average 3.33 total goals (29 scored + 11 conceded in 12 games)
- Manta away matches average 2.0 total goals (6 scored + 18 conceded in 12 games)
- Last H2H: 4-2 Manta, 3-0 Catolica, 1-0 Manta
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's poor away scoring record suggests they may fail to score, making 'No' for both teams to score likely.
- Manta has scored only 6 goals in 12 away matches (0.5 per game)
- Manta failed to score in 8 of 12 away matches
- Catolica kept clean sheets in 4 of 12 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's away scoring struggles give Catolica a good chance of keeping a clean sheet.
- Catolica kept clean sheets in 4 of 12 home matches
- Manta failed to score in 8 of 12 away matches
- Manta averages 0.5 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostManta not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be low-scoring in the first half, especially Manta, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Catolica first half goals: 0.6 per game overall, 0.6 at home
- Manta first half goals: 0.2 per game overall, 0.2 away
- Manta first half goals conceded: 0.7 per game overall, 0.7 away
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Catolica's attacking output tends to increase after halftime, and Manta's defense may tire, leading to more second-half goals.
- Catolica scores 1.1 goals per second half at home (1.7 total - 0.6 first half)
- Manta concedes 0.6 goals per second half away (1.3 total - 0.7 first half)
- Catolica home matches average 1.67 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the line, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Catolica averages 4.8 corners per game overall, 5.0 at home
- Manta averages 4.1 corners per game overall, 4.3 away
- Combined average: 8.9 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just below the line, making over 7.5 a near 50-50 call.
- Catolica averages 4.7 shots on target per game overall, 5.0 at home
- Manta averages 2.7 shots on target per game overall, 2.5 away
- Combined average: 7.4 shots on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are close to the line, making over 4.5 a near 50-50 proposition.
- Catolica averages 2.0 yellow cards per game overall, 2.0 at home
- Manta averages 2.4 yellow cards per game overall, 2.5 away
- Combined average: 4.4 yellow cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77.5% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L1-0Manta FCvUniversidad CatolicaApr 27, 2026LIG

L4-2Manta FCvUniversidad CatolicaJul 12, 2025LIG

L3-0Universidad CatolicavManta FCMar 15, 2025LIG

W0-1Manta FCvUniversidad CatolicaJul 31, 2021LIG

D3-3Universidad CatolicavManta FCFeb 27, 2021LIG

Manta: 2 clean sheets3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Universidad Catolica Quito Play-offs	25	11	7	7	40-22	40	DLWDW
16	Manta Relegation Playoffs	25	4	5	16	11-32	17	LWLLD

23pt gap between teamsManta in relegation zone

Recent Form

Universidad Catolica Quito

D1-1MacaraAug 18LIG

L1-2LibertadAug 10LIG

W3-2CuniburoAug 5COP

W5-0Tecnico UniversitarioAug 1LIG

D0-0Guayaquil City FCJul 27LIG

W2-1Barcelona SCJul 22LIG

W2-0Deportivo CuencaJul 18LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoJul 15LIG

L0-1Leones del NorteJul 10LIG

L2-3Mushuc Runa SCJul 6LIG

L0-1EmelecMay 31LIG

W4-1El NacionalMay 28COP

W2-1Orense SCMay 23LIG

D2-2Delfin SCMay 16LIG

L0-3Independiente del ValleMay 13SUP

Manta

L0-2Leones del NorteAug 15LIG

W2-1Deportivo CuencaAug 11LIG

L1-2Mushuc Runa SCAug 1LIG

L0-1Independiente del ValleJul 30COP

L0-1Tecnico UniversitarioJul 26LIG

D1-1LDU de QuitoJul 23LIG

L0-1Guayaquil City FCJul 19LIG

L0-1Delfin SCJul 15LIG

D0-0Orense SCJul 11LIG

L0-4Independiente del ValleJul 4LIG

W2-1LibertadMay 30LIG

L1-3AucasMay 26LIG

D0-0EmelecMay 17LIG

L0-1MacaraMay 10LIG

D1-1Barcelona SCMay 3LIG

Squad & Injuries

Universidad Catolica Quito

28 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Manta

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders13

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Universidad Catolica Quito

Universidad Catolica Quito or Draw

Over 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Universidad Catolica Quito

Universidad Catolica Quito or Draw

Universidad Catolica Quito, draw no bet

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Universidad Catolica Quito

Manta

Squad & Injuries

Universidad Catolica Quito

Manta