Draw
Market 25% · BetBugs 35%
Grêmio Prudente have drawn 6 of their last 15 matches (40%) and Marília's away form shows 2 draws in their last 5 away games, while H2H has 2 draws in the last 5 meetings.
Copa PaulistaFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
The market heavily favours Grêmio Prudente, but H2H and form suggest a draw is the most likely outcome, offering value at 4.00.
Avoid the home win and double chance markets, which are overpriced; the only other minor edge is the first-half draw at 2.25.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 25% · BetBugs 35%
Grêmio Prudente have drawn 6 of their last 15 matches (40%) and Marília's away form shows 2 draws in their last 5 away games, while H2H has 2 draws in the last 5 meetings.
Market 44% · BetBugs 50%
Grêmio Prudente were level at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches and Marília in 47%, with 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings level at the break.
Other edges · 5
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 65% · Market 96%
Despite the predictor's 65% estimate, the bookmaker's 1.04 odds imply a 96% probability, making this a heavily overpriced selection with negative expected value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 96% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

