UEFA Europa Conference LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

GKS Katowice2Hapoel Tel Aviv1

HT 0–1Wed 12 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 67%–33%On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 7–3FoulsFouls 18–18

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 23:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Hapoel Tel Aviv's 2-0 aggregate lead and defensive solidity make them strong favorites to avoid defeat; the best value is Double Chance Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv at 1.75 (+18-point edge).

Expect a low-scoring, cautious match, with first-half Under 1.5 goals and Corners Under 9.5 also offering edges.

Context

Hapoel Tel Aviv won the first leg 2-0 at home on 6 August, scoring twice in the first half and keeping a clean sheet.
- Katowice managed only two shots on target in that match and have failed to score in two of their last four competitive games.
- In two-legged Conference League qualifiers, the team trailing by two goals must push forward, often leading to a more open game.
Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last four competitive matches (W3 D1), with clean sheets against Ludogorets (2-0) and Katowice (2-0).
- They have conceded only 0.4 goals per game over their last five competitive outings.
- In the first leg, Hapoel limited Katowice to just two shots on target and no goals.
Katowice's last six competitive home matches: W2 D2 L2, with wins against Radomiak Radom (3-1) and Žilina (3-1).
- They failed to score in home losses to Piast Gliwice (0-1) and a friendly against Raków Częstochowa (1-1, but only one goal scored).
- In their last four competitive home games, they scored more than one goal only twice.
Hapoel's last three away competitive results: W2 D1, with wins at Dunajska Streda (1-0) and Zlin (2-1), and a draw at Ludogorets (2-2).
- They scored in all three away matches, averaging 1.7 goals per game.
- The away draw at Ludogorets came in the previous Conference League qualifying round, showing they can handle tough European trips.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hapoel Tel Aviv's strong defensive form and first-leg advantage give them the edge, though GKS Katowice's home form and desperation could make it close.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv won the first leg 2-0 at home on 2026-08-06, controlling the match with 2 first-half goals and a clean sheet.
- GKS Katowice have lost 2 of their last 3 competitive matches, including the first leg, while Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 4 competitive games (W3 D1).
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches, conceding only 2 goals in that span.
- GKS Katowice have failed to score in 2 of their last 4 competitive matches, including the first leg against Hapoel Tel Aviv.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHapoel Tel AvivEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hapoel Tel Aviv's solid defensive record and first-leg dominance make them unlikely to lose, while GKS Katowice's inconsistent home form supports a double chance for the visitors.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 4 competitive matches (W3 D1), with 3 clean sheets.
- GKS Katowice have won only 2 of their last 6 competitive home matches (W2 D2 L2).
- In the first leg, Hapoel Tel Aviv dominated with a 2-0 win, limiting GKS Katowice to 2 shots on target.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have not lost an away competitive match in their last 3 (W2 D1), including a 2-2 draw at Ludogorets.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Hapoel Tel AvivEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
GKS Katowice's slow starts and Hapoel Tel Aviv's cautious away approach make a stalemate at the break the most likely scenario.
- GKS Katowice have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have drawn at halftime in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches, and led in 2 others.
- The first leg saw Hapoel Tel Aviv lead 2-0 at halftime, but that was at home; away from home, they have drawn 2 of their last 3 first halves.
- GKS Katowice have not led at halftime in any of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With Hapoel Tel Aviv likely to protect their lead and GKS Katowice pushing but lacking cutting edge, a drawn second half is probable.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have drawn the second half in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- GKS Katowice have drawn the second half in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches, winning 2 and losing 1.
- The first leg second half ended 0-0, with both teams creating little.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have not lost a second half in their last 5 competitive matches (W1 D4).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not the most likely outcome, a stalemate throughout is possible given both teams' recent patterns of slow starts and defensive focus.
- GKS Katowice have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches, and drawn at full time in 2 of those.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have drawn at halftime in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches, and drawn at full time in 2 of those.
- The first leg was not a draw at halftime or full time, but away from home Hapoel Tel Aviv have been more conservative.
- Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring, tight matches recently.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Hapoel Tel Aviv's defensive solidity and GKS Katowice's recent low-scoring competitive matches, a tight, low-scoring affair is likely as the visitors protect their aggregate lead.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv's last 5 competitive matches have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of them.
- GKS Katowice's last 4 competitive matches have averaged 2.0 total goals, with 3 of 4 finishing under 2.5.
- The first leg ended 2-0, with both teams combining for only 8 shots on target.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches, conceding only 0.4 goals per game in that span.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hapoel Tel Aviv's strong defensive form and GKS Katowice's recent struggles to score, especially against organized defenses, suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- GKS Katowice failed to score in the first leg and have been shut out in 2 of their last 4 competitive matches.
- In the first leg, Hapoel Tel Aviv limited GKS Katowice to just 2 shots on target.
- GKS Katowice have scored in only 2 of their last 4 competitive home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a clean sheet is always difficult away from home, Hapoel Tel Aviv's defensive organization and GKS Katowice's attacking woes make it a plausible outcome.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches.
- GKS Katowice have failed to score in 2 of their last 4 competitive matches, including the first leg.
- In the first leg, Hapoel Tel Aviv held GKS Katowice to 0 goals and only 2 shots on target.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv's away competitive matches have seen them concede only 2 goals in the last 3 outings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGKS Katowice not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring records, and Hapoel Tel Aviv will likely prioritize defensive solidity to protect their aggregate lead.
- GKS Katowice's last 5 competitive matches have seen only 2 first-half goals total (0.4 per game).
- Hapoel Tel Aviv's last 5 competitive matches have seen only 3 first-half goals total (0.6 per game).
- The first leg had 2 first-half goals, but both were scored by Hapoel Tel Aviv in a dominant display; GKS Katowice had 0 first-half shots on target.
- GKS Katowice have trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches, but have not conceded more than 1 first-half goal in any of those.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With Hapoel Tel Aviv likely to manage the game and GKS Katowice struggling to break down deep defenses, the second half should remain low-scoring.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv's last 5 competitive matches have seen only 3 second-half goals total (0.6 per game).
- GKS Katowice's last 5 competitive matches have seen 5 second-half goals total (1.0 per game), but 3 of those came in one match.
- The first leg had 0 second-half goals, with both teams managing only 2 shots on target combined after halftime.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv have conceded only 1 second-half goal in their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner averages, and the first leg was well under 9.5, suggesting a repeat is likely in a match where attacking intent may be limited.
- GKS Katowice average only 4.6 corners per game over their last 15 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv average only 3.6 corners per game over their last 15 matches.
- The first leg saw only 5 total corners (Hapoel Tel Aviv 3, GKS Katowice 2).
- In GKS Katowice's last 5 competitive matches with corner data, they averaged 5.2 corners per game, while opponents averaged 4.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first leg was clean in terms of cards, and both teams have moderate disciplinary records, so a low card count is expected in a match that may not be overly physical.
- GKS Katowice average 2.0 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv average 1.6 yellow cards per game over their last 15 matches.
- The first leg saw 0 yellow cards for either team.
- In GKS Katowice's last 5 competitive matches with card data, they received 12 yellows (2.4 per game), while opponents received 9 (1.8 per game).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29% vs our 45% estimate suggests value, but the draw risk is high in a second leg where the away side protects a lead; the 3.40 odds don't fully compensate for the draw probability.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L2-0Hapoel Tel AvivvGKS KatowiceAug 6, 2026UEF

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

GKS Katowice

L0-2Hapoel Tel AvivAug 6UEF

W3-1Radomiak RadomAug 2EKS

W3-1ŽilinaJul 30UEF

L1-2Wisla KrakowJul 26EKS

L1-2ŽilinaJul 23UEF

D1-1Raków CzęstochowaJul 16FRI

W3-1Stal RzeszówJul 11FRI

W2-0Miedz LegnicaJul 1FRI

L0-1Piast GliwiceJul 1FRI

W2-0Arka GdyniaJun 28FRI

W7-0Świt SkolwinJun 25FRI

D1-1Pogon SzczecinMay 23EKS

D2-2JagielloniaMay 17EKS

D0-0Piast GliwiceMay 10EKS

W5-1NiecieczaMay 3EKS

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W2-0GKS KatowiceAug 6UEF

D2-2LudogoretsJul 30UEF

W2-0LudogoretsJul 23UEF

D0-0Dukla Banská BystricaJul 14FRI

W1-0Dunajska StredaJul 11FRI

W2-1ZlinJul 8FRI

D3-3Bnei YehudaJul 3FRI

D1-1Beitar JerusalemMay 23LIG

L1-4Maccabi HaifaMay 19LIG

L0-2Hapoel Beer ShevaMay 15LIG

W1-0Hapoel Petah TikvaMay 12LIG

D1-1Maccabi Tel AvivMay 9LIG

L0-1Beitar JerusalemMay 6LIG

L0-2Hapoel Beer ShevaMay 2LIG

W4-0Maccabi HaifaApr 29LIG

Squad & Injuries

GKS Katowice

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Hapoel Tel Aviv

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv

Draw

Under 1.5

Under 9.5

No

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hapoel Tel Aviv

No

Under 4.5

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

GKS Katowice

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Squad & Injuries

GKS Katowice

Hapoel Tel Aviv