Primera BFull time

Predictions graded

Deportes Santa Cruz0Puerto Montt0

HT 0–0Sat 8 Aug 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 15:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 (65% model probability vs.

57.1% implied) and Both Teams to Score – No at 1.91 (60% vs. 52.4%) for clear value. The Double Chance Draw or Puerto Montt at 1.44 is also solid, given Santa Cruz's one home win all season. Avoid short-priced first-half markets where the odds overestimate the likelihood of low-scoring outcomes.

Context

Giovagnoli took over on 4 May 2026, replacing John Armijo after a poor start.
- Santa Cruz have just 2 wins in 17 Primera B matches, sitting 15th with 12 points.
- Recent form: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 5 league games, conceding 11 goals.
Puerto Montt away record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 5 away league games.
- Three clean sheets in those five away matches, conceding only 2 goals.
- Santa Cruz home record: 1 win, 4 draws, 3 losses in 8 home matches this season.
Last 4 H2H results: 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 — all under 2.5 goals.
- Puerto Montt won the most recent meeting 2-0 at home in March 2026.
- In 3 of those 4 matches, at least one team failed to score.
Mancilla was ratified on 8 June 2026, taking over from Astorga who left in May.
- Under Mancilla, Puerto Montt have won 2, drawn 1, and lost 1 in their last 4 league games.
- The team sits 4th with 29 points, showing no major disruption from the change.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puerto Montt's superior league standing and recent away form, plus Deportes Santa Cruz's poor home record, give the visitors a clear edge.
- Puerto Montt away form: 3 wins in last 5 away league matches.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home form: only 1 win in 8 home matches this season.
- H2H: Puerto Montt won the reverse fixture 2-0 in March 2026.
- League position: Puerto Montt 4th (29 pts) vs Deportes Santa Cruz 15th (12 pts).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPuerto MonttEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportes Santa Cruz's extremely low win rate at home and overall makes a home win unlikely, heavily favoring the double chance for the away side.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: only 1 win in 8 home matches (12.5% win rate).
- Puerto Montt away: lost only 4 of 8 away matches, with 3 wins.
- H2H: Puerto Montt unbeaten in last 2 meetings (1 win, 1 draw).
- Deportes Santa Cruz overall: 2 wins in 17 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Puerto MonttEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High frequency of halftime draws in both teams' respective home/away splits and in recent H2H suggests a stalemate at the break is most probable.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: 5 of 8 home matches were level at halftime.
- Puerto Montt away: 5 of 8 away matches were level at halftime.
- H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings were level at halftime.
- Both teams have a high percentage of draws at halftime this season (home 62.5%, away 62.5%).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puerto Montt's tendency to finish stronger on the road and Deportes Santa Cruz's second-half defensive frailties give the visitors a slight edge after the break.
- Puerto Montt away: won the second half in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: lost the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- H2H: Puerto Montt won the second half 1-0 in the most recent meeting.
- Puerto Montt has a better second-half goal difference (+2) than Deportes Santa Cruz (-5) this season.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostPuerto MonttEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the recent H2H pattern—halftime draw followed by a Puerto Montt victory—is plausible given both teams' tendencies.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: 4 of 8 home matches were draw at HT, with 2 ending in away wins.
- Puerto Montt away: 3 of 8 away matches were draw at HT and ended in away win.
- H2H: The most recent meeting was 0-0 at HT and ended 2-0 to Puerto Montt.
- Puerto Montt has a higher second-half scoring rate (0.7 goals) than first half (0.4).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Puerto MonttEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side has shown the consistency to dominate both halves, with Deportes Santa Cruz particularly weak and Puerto Montt rarely achieving this feat away.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: never won both halves in any home match this season.
- Puerto Montt away: won both halves in only 1 of 8 away matches.
- H2H: No team has won both halves in the last 5 meetings.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring, making a dominant performance unlikely.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportes Santa Cruz rarely leads at halftime at home, while Puerto Montt is resilient early in away games, making a home halftime lead improbable.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: led at halftime in only 1 of 8 home matches.
- Puerto Montt away: trailed at halftime in only 1 of 8 away matches.
- H2H: Deportes Santa Cruz has not led at halftime in any of the last 4 meetings.
- Puerto Montt has a better first-half goal difference (+0) than Deportes Santa Cruz (-3) this season.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Puerto MonttEstimated chance65%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring H2H pattern combined with both teams' moderate attacking output and Puerto Montt's solid defensive record away from home supports a low total.
- H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings had 2 goals or fewer, including the most recent 2-0 in March 2026.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home matches: 5 of 8 had under 2.5 goals (avg total 3.6, but median 2.5).
- Puerto Montt away matches: 5 of 8 had under 2.5 goals (avg total 2.1).
- Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per match overall this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H trend of clean sheets and Puerto Montt's defensive solidity on the road make it likely at least one side blanks.
- H2H: In 3 of last 4 meetings, at least one team failed to score.
- Puerto Montt away: kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 away league matches.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: failed to score in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Puerto Montt overall: 7 clean sheets in 17 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring in their respective home/away splits and in recent H2H encounters.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: 6 of 8 home matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Puerto Montt away: 6 of 8 away matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- H2H: Last 4 meetings all had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals per game this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving these teams tend to open up after halftime, with a slight majority of recent home/away games seeing multiple second-half goals.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: 5 of 8 home matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Puerto Montt away: 4 of 8 away matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- H2H: 2 of last 4 meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams concede more goals in the second half than the first this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams and a clean H2H record of no first-half BTTS make this outcome highly unlikely.
- Deportes Santa Cruz home: both teams scored in first half in only 2 of 8 home matches.
- Puerto Montt away: both teams scored in first half in only 1 of 8 away matches.
- H2H: Both teams scored in the first half in 0 of the last 4 meetings.
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals scored per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85.5% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; odds too short to justify the risk.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0D. Puerto MonttvDeportes Santa CruzMar 15, 2026PRI

W1-0Deportes Santa CruzvD. Puerto MonttAug 4, 2023PRI

W1-2D. Puerto MonttvDeportes Santa CruzMar 20, 2023PRI

L0-2Deportes Santa CruzvD. Puerto MonttSep 25, 2022PRI

L3-0D. Puerto MonttvDeportes Santa CruzApr 30, 2022PRI

Puerto Montt: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Deportes Santa Cruz	17	2	6	9	22-33	12	LLWDD
4	Puerto Montt	17	9	2	6	21-18	29	WWDLL

17pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Deportes Santa Cruz

L1-3Santiago WanderersAug 2PRI

L2-4CobreloaJul 25PRI

L2-3PalestinoJul 11COP

W2-1A. ItalianoJul 5COP

D0-0PalestinoJun 27COP

W1-0A. ItalianoJun 19COP

W1-0Rangers de TalcaJun 7PRI

D1-1Deportes CopiapoJun 1PRI

D1-1AntofagastaMay 24PRI

L2-3Deportes TemucoMay 18PRI

L0-1RecoletaMay 9PRI

D2-2Deportes IquiqueMay 2PRI

L0-2Union EspanolaApr 27PRI

L1-3Union San FelipeApr 19PRI

D2-2MagallanesApr 11PRI

Puerto Montt

W1-0RecoletaAug 2PRI

W3-2AntofagastaJul 26PRI

L0-2ConcepciónJul 12COP

W2-1HuachipatoJul 5COP

W2-0ConcepciónJun 29COP

W2-0HuachipatoJun 21COP

D1-1CobreloaJun 6PRI

L0-1Union San FelipeMay 30PRI

L0-2San Marcos de AricaMay 24PRI

L1-4San LuisMay 17PRI

W2-0MagallanesMay 9PRI

W1-0Rangers de TalcaMay 3PRI

L1-2Curico UnidoApr 26PRI

W1-0Deportes TemucoApr 21PRI

D0-0Deportes IquiqueApr 12PRI

Squad & Injuries

Deportes Santa Cruz

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Puerto Montt

34 available

Attackers11

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Draw or Puerto Montt

Under 1.5

No

No

Result4 of 7 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Draw or Puerto Montt

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Deportes Santa Cruz

Puerto Montt

Squad & Injuries

Deportes Santa Cruz

Puerto Montt