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Predictions graded

Union Saint-Gilloise5RSC Anderlecht1

HT 4–0Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 22–9On targetOn target 9–3CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 23:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Saint-Gilloise are clear favourites with an unbeaten home record and three straight H2H wins, including a cup final victory 10 days ago.

The best value lies in Draw/Union HT/FT (+10pts edge) and Over 1.5 second-half goals (+24pts edge), exploiting Anderlecht’s poor away second halves and Union’s home dominance after the break.

Context

Union beat Anderlecht 3-1 in the cup final on 14 May 2026.
- Anderlecht coach Taravel said on 20 May that the team had to process the cup loss and quickly shift focus to Europe.
- Anderlecht have lost their last three meetings with Union, including a 3-1 league defeat on 27 April.
Taravel stated Diarra is out with a glute injury and Stroeykens remains injured.
- Anderlecht have lost four of their last five away matches.
- Anderlecht have conceded 33 goals in 19 away league games this season.
Union's home record: 17 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 38 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Union have kept 11 clean sheets in 19 home matches.
- Anderlecht have won only 5 of 19 away matches this season.
Anderlecht's 19-20 May communications targeted fourth place and European qualification.
- As of 21 May, Union were 2nd on 50 points and Anderlecht 4th on 33 in the Champions' Play-offs.
- Anderlecht are winless in their last five matches (DDLLL).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Saint-Gilloise's dominant home form, recent H2H superiority, and Anderlecht's poor run make a home win highly likely.
- Union SG are unbeaten at home this season (17W 2D 0L, 38GF 6GA in 19 home matches).
- Union SG have won the last 3 H2H meetings, including a 3-1 cup final win 10 days ago and a 3-1 league win on 27 Apr 2026.
- Anderlecht have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (DDLLL) and have a poor away record (5W 5D 9L, 23GF 33GA).
- Union SG have the best defensive record in the league (26 goals conceded in 38 matches) and have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUnion Saint-GilloiseEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Saint-Gilloise's fortress-like home record and Anderlecht's struggles on the road make a home win or draw extremely probable.
- Union SG are unbeaten at home in 19 league matches this season (17W 2D).
- Anderlecht have won only 5 of 19 away matches this season.
- Union SG have lost only 4 of 38 league matches overall this season.
- Anderlecht have failed to win any of their last 5 matches (DDLLL).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUnion Saint-Gilloise or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half win rates and similar first-half scoring, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- Union SG have led at half-time in only 40% of matches, Anderlecht in 13%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were drawn at half-time.
- Union SG average 0.7 first-half goals, Anderlecht 0.7.
- Anderlecht have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches, Union SG in 13%.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Union's strong second-half performances at home, combined with Anderlecht's second-half collapses away, point to a home win after the break.
- Union SG have won the second half in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Anderlecht have lost the second half in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Union SG have a +17 second-half goal difference at home (24GF 7GA).
- Anderlecht have a -10 second-half goal difference away (14GF 24GA).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableUnion Saint-GilloiseEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Union's second-half dominance is a plausible scenario given both teams' patterns.
- Union SG have drawn at half-time and won at full-time in 4 of their last 10 home matches.
- Anderlecht have drawn at half-time and lost at full-time in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 followed this pattern.
- Union SG have the best second-half home record in the league.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Union Saint-GilloiseEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H meetings and Anderlecht's leaky away defense suggest goals, though Union's strong home defense tempers the probability slightly.
- Union SG's home matches average 2.32 goals per game (44 goals in 19 matches), but recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring (3-1, 3-1, 2-0 in last 3).
- Anderlecht's away matches average 2.95 goals per game (56 goals in 19 matches).
- Union SG have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Anderlecht have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Union's strong home defense is countered by Anderlecht's consistent away scoring, making both teams scoring a balanced possibility.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 H2H meetings.
- Anderlecht have scored in 14 of their 19 away matches this season.
- Union SG have kept 11 clean sheets in 19 home matches, but Anderlecht have failed to score in only 5 of 19 away matches.
- Union SG have conceded in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union's home defensive record is strong, but Anderlecht's ability to score away makes a clean sheet less certain.
- Union SG have kept 11 clean sheets in 19 home matches this season.
- Anderlecht have failed to score in 5 of 19 away matches.
- Union SG have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Anderlecht have scored in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRSC Anderlecht not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in H2H matches.
- Union SG average 0.7 first-half goals per match this season, conceding 0.5.
- Anderlecht average 0.7 first-half goals per match, conceding 1.0.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Union SG have led at half-time in only 40% of matches, Anderlecht in 13%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matches tend to open up after the break, with both teams showing higher scoring rates in the second half, especially in recent H2H encounters.
- Union SG's home matches see 55% of goals in the second half (24 of 44 goals).
- Anderlecht's away matches see 59% of goals in the second half (33 of 56 goals).
- In the last 3 H2H meetings, second halves produced 2+ goals each time.
- Union SG have scored 2+ second-half goals in 4 of their last 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner averages are near the line, but recent H2H meetings have occasionally exceeded 9.5, making it a borderline call.
- Union SG average 5.4 corners per match, Anderlecht 4.8.
- Union SG's home matches average 10.2 total corners (5.4 + 4.8 opponent corners).
- Anderlecht's away matches average 9.6 total corners (4.8 + 4.8 opponent corners).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were 11, 7, 12, 7, 9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby intensity and similar card averages suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 4.5 cards.
- Union SG average 2.5 yellow cards per match, Anderlecht 2.6.
- Union SG's home matches average 5.1 total cards (2.5 + 2.6 opponent cards).
- Anderlecht's away matches average 5.2 total cards (2.6 + 2.6 opponent cards).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were 5, 5, 4, 3, 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L3-1Union St. GilloisevAnderlechtMay 14, 2026CUP

W1-3AnderlechtvUnion St. GilloiseApr 26, 2026JUP

L1-0AnderlechtvUnion St. GilloiseNov 30, 2025JUP

L2-0Union St. GilloisevAnderlechtAug 31, 2025JUP

W0-1AnderlechtvUnion St. GilloiseMay 10, 2025JUP

RSC Anderlecht: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Union Saint-Gilloise Champions League Qualification	38	24	10	4	61-26	49	LWLWD
4	RSC Anderlecht UEFA Europa League Qualification	38	14	10	14	55-56	30	DDLLL

19pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Union Saint-Gilloise

L0-5Club Brugge KVMay 17JUP

W3-0KV MechelenMay 10JUP

L1-2St. TruidenMay 2JUP

W3-1AnderlechtApr 26JUP

D0-0GentApr 22JUP

W2-1Club Brugge KVApr 19JUP

W1-0KV MechelenApr 12JUP

W1-0St. TruidenApr 4JUP

W3-1St. TruidenMar 22JUP

W2-0DenderMar 14JUP

W2-1GenkMar 7JUP

D0-0KVC WesterloMar 1JUP

W2-1AntwerpFeb 21JUP

D1-1Standard LiegeFeb 14JUP

W4-1CharleroiFeb 11CUP

RSC Anderlecht

D2-2KV MechelenMay 17JUP

D1-1GentMay 10JUP

L1-3Club Brugge KVMay 3JUP

L1-3Union St. GilloiseApr 26JUP

L0-2St. TruidenApr 23JUP

W2-1KV MechelenApr 18JUP

W3-1GentApr 12JUP

L2-4Club Brugge KVApr 6JUP

L2-3Cercle BruggeMar 22JUP

L0-1KV MechelenMar 15JUP

D2-2Club Brugge KVMar 8JUP

W5-1OH LeuvenFeb 28JUP

W4-2Zulte WaregemFeb 22JUP

D0-0RAAL La LouvièreFeb 15JUP

W4-0AntwerpFeb 12CUP

Squad & Injuries

Union Saint-Gilloise

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

RSC Anderlecht

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw at half-time / Union Saint-Gilloise at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Union Saint-Gilloise

Union Saint-Gilloise or Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Union Saint-Gilloise

RSC Anderlecht

Squad & Injuries

Union Saint-Gilloise

RSC Anderlecht