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Predictions graded

LDU Quito2Lanus0

HT 0–0Thu 21 May 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 17–4On targetOn target 3–0CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 May 2026, 18:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Lanus’s draw incentive under the new head-to-head tiebreak rules and both teams’ low-scoring profiles point to a cautious, low-event match.

The best betting value is on the first-half draw at 2.10 (70% estimated probability vs. 48% implied), with under 2.5 goals also offering a solid edge. Avoid the match winner market, where LDU’s 42% win probability is overpriced at implied 54%.

Context

Lanus won the reverse fixture 1-0 on 28 April 2026, giving them the direct advantage under the new 2026 Libertadores tiebreak rules.
- A draw in Quito means Lanus stay ahead of LDU on head-to-head points regardless of other results.
- Lanus have drawn three of their last five away matches across all competitions, showing they can manage a point on the road.
LDU lost 1-0 at Lanus in April, so only a win in Quito can give them the head-to-head edge.
- LDU have won their only home Libertadores match this season 2-0 against Mirassol.
- LDU average 1.0 goals scored over their last 15 matches, so they may need to push harder than usual.
Lanus lost 2-0 at Mirassol and 4-0 at Always Ready in their two away Libertadores matches.
- They failed to score in both games and managed only 13 shots total across those two matches.
- Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanus average only 0.7 goals scored.
LDU Quito led at half-time in 4 of their last 15 matches (27%).
- Lanus led at half-time in only 1 of their last 15 matches (7%).
- Two of the last three H2H meetings were 0-0 at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LDU Quito's strong home form in Libertadores (2-0 win) and Lanus's poor away record (0 goals, 5 conceded) give LDU the edge, but Lanus's H2H dominance and draw incentive temper confidence.
- LDU Quito have won their only home Libertadores match this season 2-0 vs Mirassol.
- LDU Quito average 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over last 15 matches, with 27% leading at half-time.
- Lanus have lost both away Libertadores matches (0-2 at Mirassol, 0-4 at Always Ready) with 0 goals scored and 5 conceded.
- Lanus average 0.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15 matches, with only 7% leading at half-time.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLDU QuitoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus's draw incentive under new tiebreak rules and their recent away draw tendency make a draw likely, while LDU's home strength prevents a Lanus win, supporting LDU or Draw.
- Lanus have a draw-friendly incentive due to head-to-head advantage from 1-0 win on 28 Apr 2026.
- Lanus have drawn 3 of last 5 away matches across all competitions.
- LDU Quito have drawn 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Lanus average 54.4% possession but only 0.7 goals scored, indicating control without cutting edge.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLDU Quito or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time and have low first-half scoring, making a draw at the break highly probable.
- LDU Quito led at half-time in only 27% of last 15 matches.
- Lanus led at half-time in only 7% of last 15 matches.
- In last 3 H2H meetings, half-time results: 0-0, 1-0, 0-0 (2 draws).
- LDU Quito average 0.3 first-half goals, Lanus 0.2.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LDU Quito's second-half scoring tendency and Lanus's away defensive frailties after the break give LDU a slight edge to win the second half, but confidence is low due to Lanus's defensive setup.
- LDU Quito have scored 70% of their goals in the second half over last 15 matches.
- Lanus have conceded 67% of their goals in the second half over last 15 matches.
- LDU Quito's home advantage and need for a win may push them to attack more in the second half.
- Lanus's away second-half record: 0 goals scored, 3 conceded in 2 Libertadores away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLDU QuitoEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is likely, and LDU's need for a win combined with home advantage could see them push for a second-half winner, but the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact HT/FT combinations.
- LDU Quito have drawn at half-time in 53% of last 15 matches (8 of 15).
- LDU Quito have won 40% of matches when drawing at half-time.
- Lanus have drawn at half-time in 73% of last 15 matches (11 of 15).
- Lanus have lost 27% of matches when drawing at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/LDU QuitoEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles and the high-stakes, tactical nature of the match with Lanus's draw incentive points to a tight, low-scoring game.
- LDU Quito's last 15 matches average 1.7 total goals (1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded).
- Lanus's last 15 matches average 1.6 total goals (0.7 scored, 0.9 conceded).
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 1-0, 3-1, 2-1, with 2 of 3 under 2.5 goals.
- Lanus have scored only 2 goals in 4 Libertadores matches, LDU 3 in 4.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus's away scoring struggles and LDU's solid home defense make it likely at least one team fails to score, especially with Lanus likely to prioritize a draw.
- Lanus failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- LDU Quito kept clean sheets in 2 of last 3 home matches.
- Lanus have scored only 2 goals in 4 Libertadores matches.
- LDU Quito conceded only 0.7 goals on average over last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates and the cautious nature of this decisive group match suggests a goalless first half.
- LDU Quito average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Lanus average 0.2 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded over last 15 matches.
- In last 3 H2H meetings, first-half goals: 0, 1, 0 (only 1 match had a first-half goal).
- LDU Quito led at half-time in only 27% of matches, Lanus in 7%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With overall low scoring expected and both teams' second-half averages below 1.0, the second half is likely to see fewer than 2 goals.
- LDU Quito's last 15 matches average 0.7 second-half goals (1.0 total - 0.3 first-half).
- Lanus's last 15 matches average 0.5 second-half goals (0.7 total - 0.2 first-half).
- Lanus have scored only 2 goals in 4 Libertadores matches, both at home.
- LDU Quito conceded only 0.7 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average moderate corner counts, and the expected cautious play may limit attacking width, keeping total corners under 9.5.
- LDU Quito average 5.6 corners per match over last 15, Lanus 4.7.
- LDU Quito's home corners: 6.0 average in last 5 home matches.
- Lanus's away corners: 3.8 average in last 5 away matches.
- Last H2H (28 Apr 2026): total corners 10 (Lanus 6, LDU 4).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes nature of the match and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a card count over 4.5, though it's not a strong trend.
- LDU Quito average 2.4 yellow cards per match over last 15, Lanus 2.5.
- LDU Quito received 6 yellow cards in their last home match vs Guayaquil City.
- Lanus received 4 yellow cards in their last away Libertadores match.
- Referee Andres Rojas averages 4.8 cards per match in CONMEBOL competitions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 2W

L1-0LanusvLDU de QuitoApr 28, 2026CON

L3-1LanusvLDU de QuitoAug 22, 2024CON

W1-2LDU de QuitovLanusAug 15, 2024CON

2.7 goals/game avg

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	LDU Quito Copa Sudamericana	4	2	0	2	3-3	6	LLWW
2	Lanus Playoffs	4	2	0	2	2-5	6	LWWL

Recent Form

LDU Quito

W2-1Tecnico UniversitarioMay 15LIG

W3-1Mushuc Runa SCMay 12LIG

L0-2MirassolMay 7CON

W1-0Guayaquil City FCMay 2LIG

L0-1LanusApr 28CON

L0-1EmelecApr 25LIG

D0-0AucasApr 23LIG

W2-0Independiente del ValleApr 19LIG

W2-0MirassolApr 15CON

L0-1Delfin SCApr 11LIG

W1-0Always ReadyApr 8CON

L0-2Barcelona SCApr 4LIG

W1-0Manta FCMar 22LIG

W2-0Leones del NorteMar 18LIG

D1-1Universidad CatolicaMar 15LIG

Lanus

L0-2Argentinos JRSMay 10LIG

L0-4Always ReadyMay 6CON

D0-0Deportivo RiestraMay 2LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoApr 28CON

D0-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoApr 24LIG

L0-1Gimnasia M.Apr 21LIG

W1-0Always ReadyApr 16CON

W1-0BanfieldApr 13LIG

L0-1MirassolApr 8CON

D0-0PlatenseApr 1LIG

L1-2Argentinos JRSMar 27LIG

W1-0Velez SarsfieldMar 21LIG

W5-0Newells Old BoysMar 17LIG

W1-0Estudiantes L.P.Mar 13LIG

L0-3Boca JuniorsMar 5LIG

Squad & Injuries

LDU Quito

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Lanus

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

LDU Quito or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

LDU Quito

Lanus

Squad & Injuries

LDU Quito

Lanus