Primeira LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Famalicao1FC Alverca0

HT 0–0Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 11–7On targetOn target 2–1CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 00:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Famalicao’s strong home defense and Alverca’s poor away form point to a low-scoring match, with value in under 0.5 first-half goals (+24.7% edge) and a first-half draw (+18% edge).

Avoid the home win market as it’s correctly priced, and expect a cagey start with Famalicao likely to edge it after the break.

Context

Famalicao home record: 8W-4D-4L, 26 goals for, 12 against in 16 matches.
- 8 clean sheets in 16 home games (50%).
- 4 of last 5 matches overall stayed under 2.5 goals.
Alverca away record: 3W-4D-9L, 17 goals for, 28 against in 16 matches.
- Failed to score in 5 of 16 away matches.
- Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of 16 away matches.
Famalicao first-half goals at home: 0.3 per game average.
- 60% of home matches drawn at half-time (9 of 15).
- 3 of last 5 matches goalless at half-time.
Oliveira extended his contract on 2026-03-28, removing any short-term uncertainty.
- Famalicao have been unbeaten in 5 matches since the announcement (2W-3D).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's strong home form (8 wins, only 12 conceded) and Alverca's poor away record (9 losses, 28 conceded) give the hosts a clear edge, supported by their recent unbeaten run.
- Famalicao home record: 8W-4D-4L, 26 goals for, 12 against in 16 matches.
- FC Alverca away record: 3W-4D-9L, 17 goals for, 28 against in 16 matches.
- Famalicao last 5 matches: 2W-3D-0L, 6 goals for, 5 against.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 6 goals for, 5 against.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFamalicaoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's home resilience (only 4 losses all season) and Alverca's away struggles make a home win or draw highly probable, with the hosts losing just twice in their last 15 overall.
- Famalicao home record: 12 unbeaten in 16 (8W-4D).
- FC Alverca away record: 9 losses in 16, only 3 wins.
- Famalicao last 15 matches: only 2 losses (both away).
- H2H: Alverca won 1-0 in most recent meeting, but Famalicao won previous encounter.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFamalicao or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's tendency to draw at half-time (60% at home) and the overall low first-half scoring patterns make a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Famalicao half-time results at home: 13% leading, 27% trailing, 60% drawing.
- FC Alverca half-time results away: 33% leading, 33% trailing, 33% drawing.
- Famalicao last 5 matches: drawn at half-time in 3 of 5.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: drawn at half-time in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's superior home form and Alverca's second-half defensive frailties on the road suggest the hosts could edge the second period, though the evidence is not strong.
- Famalicao second-half performance at home: outscored opponents 17-7 in 16 matches (estimated).
- FC Alverca second-half performance away: outscored 10-17 in 16 matches (estimated).
- Famalicao last 5 matches: won second half in 2, drew 3.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: lost second half in 2, won 1, drew 2.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableFamalicaoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of Famalicao drawing at half-time and winning at full-time aligns with their home profile, but the specific combination is rare, hence low confidence.
- Famalicao home matches: drawn at half-time in 60%, won full-time in 50%.
- FC Alverca away matches: drawn at half-time in 33%, lost full-time in 56%.
- Famalicao last 5 matches: 3 draws at half-time, 2 wins full-time.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: 1 draw at half-time, 2 losses full-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / FamalicaoEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's home games are low-scoring (only 12 conceded in 16), and recent form for both sides shows a trend toward unders, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- Famalicao home matches: 26 goals for, 12 against in 16 (avg 2.38 total goals).
- FC Alverca away matches: 17 goals for, 28 against in 16 (avg 2.81 total goals).
- Famalicao last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's strong home defense (50% clean sheet rate) and Alverca's occasional away scoring struggles suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Famalicao home clean sheets: 8 in 16 matches.
- FC Alverca away failed to score: 5 in 16 matches.
- Famalicao last 5 matches: kept 2 clean sheets, conceded in 3.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: failed to score in 2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Famalicao's home defensive record is solid, but Alverca has scored in most away games, making a home clean sheet a plausible but not high-probability outcome.
- Famalicao home clean sheets: 8 in 16 (50%).
- FC Alverca away goals scored: 17 in 16 (1.06 per game).
- Famalicao last 5 home matches: 2 clean sheets.
- H2H: Alverca scored 1 goal in each of the two meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Alverca not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Famalicao averaging only 0.3 first-half goals overall and Alverca often failing to score early away from home, pointing to a goalless first half.
- Famalicao first-half goals at home: 0.3 per game average overall, with 13% leading at half-time.
- FC Alverca first-half goals away: 0.5 per game average overall, with 33% leading at half-time.
- Famalicao last 5 matches: 0 first-half goals in 3 of 5.
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: 0 first-half goals in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both teams are low-scoring early, they tend to find the net more after the break, but the overall low goal expectation makes over 1.5 second-half goals a borderline call.
- Famalicao second-half goals at home: 1.0 per game average (1.3 total - 0.3 first half).
- FC Alverca second-half goals away: 0.6 per game average (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- Famalicao last 5 matches: 6 second-half goals (1.2 per game).
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: 4 second-half goals (0.8 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have seen relatively high corner counts, with Alverca's away games averaging 10.7 total corners, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Famalicao home corners: 5.7 per game overall, opponents 3.7 (avg 9.4 total).
- FC Alverca away corners: 5.6 per game overall, opponents 5.1 (avg 10.7 total).
- Famalicao last 5 matches: total corners 10, 10, 13, 7, 13 (avg 10.6).
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: total corners 8, 9, 9, 12, 20 (avg 11.6).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card counts are inconsistent, but Famalicao's recent matches have trended higher, while Alverca's away games average just over 4 cards, making over 4.5 a marginal call.
- Famalicao home yellow cards: 2.3 per game overall, opponents 2.1 (avg 4.4 total).
- FC Alverca away yellow cards: 1.9 per game overall, opponents 2.3 (avg 4.2 total).
- Famalicao last 5 matches: total cards 4, 4, 2, 7, 11 (avg 5.6).
- FC Alverca last 5 matches: total cards 5, 5, 6, 3, 0 (avg 3.8).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L1-0AlvercavFamalicaoJan 4, 2026PRI

W1-2AlvercavFamalicaoNov 20, 2021TAÇ

2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Famalicao	33	14	11	8	41-29	53	DDWDD
11	FC Alverca	33	10	9	14	35-51	39	DLWLW

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Famalicao

D0-0EstrelaMay 11PRI

D2-2BenficaMay 2PRI

W1-0EstorilApr 26PRI

D2-2SC BragaApr 19PRI

D1-1MoreirenseApr 10PRI

D2-2FC PortoApr 4PRI

W1-0NacionalMar 21PRI

W2-1GuimaraesMar 14PRI

W1-0AroucaMar 6PRI

D0-0Rio AveMar 1PRI

W2-0Casa PiaFeb 23PRI

L0-1Sporting CPFeb 15PRI

W3-1AVSFeb 9PRI

L0-5GIL VicenteFeb 1PRI

W3-0TondelaJan 25PRI

FC Alverca

D1-1EstorilMay 10PRI

L0-1FC PortoMay 2PRI

W2-1AroucaApr 24PRI

L0-1NacionalApr 18PRI

W3-1Casa PiaApr 12PRI

W2-1Rio AveApr 4PRI

L1-4Sporting CPMar 22PRI

D2-2GIL VicenteMar 14PRI

D0-0AVSMar 7PRI

D1-1GuimaraesFeb 28PRI

D1-1Santa ClaraFeb 21PRI

D1-1TondelaFeb 13PRI

L1-2BenficaFeb 8PRI

D1-1EstrelaJan 31PRI

L0-5SC BragaJan 25PRI

Squad & Injuries

Famalicao

28 available

Attackers9

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

FC Alverca

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Famalicao or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Famalicao

FC Alverca

Squad & Injuries

Famalicao

FC Alverca