Primeira LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Rio Ave1Sporting Lisbon4

HT 1–2Mon 11 May 2026, 19:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 12–16On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 May 2026, 21:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting Lisbon's H2H dominance and Rio Ave's poor home form make an away win likely, but the best value lies in the first-half draw (3.00, +22pt edge) and Draw-Sporting HT/FT (4.50, +13pt edge).

Back BTTS No (1.91) and Under 1.5 first-half goals (1.80), while avoiding short-priced Over 2.5 goals.

Context

Sporting won the last five competitive meetings, including 4-0 and 3-0 in the most recent league clashes.
- Rio Ave failed to score in three of those five matches.
- AiScore records 31 Sporting wins to Rio Ave's 7 in 48 all-time meetings.
Rio Ave's home record: 3W 6D 7L in 16 Primeira Liga matches.
- They have scored 16 and conceded 25 at home, averaging 1.0 goals for and 1.6 against.
- Recent home results include a 0-0 draw with Gil Vicente and a 1-2 loss to Alverca.
Sporting's away record: 11W 5D 0L, with 34 goals scored and 12 conceded.
- They have kept clean sheets in 50% of away games (8 of 16).
- Recent away results include a 1-0 win at Estrela and a 1-1 draw at AVS.
Rio Ave have scored 11 goals in their last 15 matches (0.73 per game).
- They were shut out in 6 of those 15 games, including against Gil Vicente, Guimaraes, and Famalicao.
- Their first-half output is even lower at 0.2 goals per game in this span.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H dominance and Sporting's unbeaten away record, combined with Rio Ave's poor home form, make an away win highly likely.
- Sporting Lisbon have won the last 5 competitive H2Hs, including 4-0 and 3-0 in the last two league meetings.
- Rio Ave have lost 7 of 16 home matches this season, while Sporting are unbeaten away (11W 5D 0L).
- Sporting average 1.8 goals per game overall; Rio Ave concede 1.5 per game and have failed to score in 3 of last 5 H2Hs.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSporting LisbonEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's unbeaten away record and Rio Ave's low home win rate make a double chance covering Sporting or draw a very safe outcome.
- Sporting Lisbon have not lost an away league match this season (11W 5D).
- Rio Ave have won only 3 of 16 home games, with 6 draws.
- Sporting have lost only 2 of 32 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Sporting LisbonEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws, and the H2H pattern supports a cautious start, making a halftime stalemate the most probable outcome.
- Rio Ave have been drawing at halftime in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Sporting Lisbon have been drawing at halftime in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, 3 were level at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's superior fitness and tactical adjustments typically lead to second-half dominance, especially against a Rio Ave side that fades after the break.
- Sporting Lisbon have won the second half in 10 of 16 away matches.
- Rio Ave have lost the second half in 8 of 16 home matches.
- Sporting have outscored Rio Ave 8-1 in the second half across the last 5 H2Hs.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSporting LisbonEstimated chance60%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match averages and recent H2H history support a relatively high-scoring game, with Sporting's attacking strength likely to push the total over 2.5.
- Sporting Lisbon's away matches average 2.88 total goals (34 scored, 12 conceded in 16 games).
- Rio Ave's home matches average 2.56 total goals (16 scored, 25 conceded in 16 games).
- 4 of the last 5 H2Hs have seen Over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rio Ave's scoring struggles, especially against Sporting, and Sporting's solid away defense suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Rio Ave failed to score in 3 of the last 5 H2Hs, including both league meetings this season.
- Sporting Lisbon have kept 8 clean sheets in 16 away league matches.
- Rio Ave average only 0.7 goals per game over their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's strong away defensive record and Rio Ave's offensive futility in this fixture make a clean sheet for the visitors a solid possibility.
- Sporting Lisbon have kept clean sheets in 50% of away league matches (8 of 16).
- Rio Ave have been shut out in 3 of their last 5 H2Hs against Sporting.
- Rio Ave average only 0.7 goals per game in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRio Ave not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of Sporting shutting out Rio Ave in recent meetings, combined with Rio Ave's home scoring woes, supports a win to nil for the visitors.
- Sporting Lisbon have won to nil in 6 of 16 away league matches.
- Rio Ave have lost to nil in 5 of 16 home matches.
- The last two league H2Hs ended 3-0 and 4-0 to Sporting.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Rio Ave particularly goal-shy in the first half, making a low-scoring opening 45 minutes likely.
- Rio Ave average only 0.2 first-half goals per game in their last 15 matches.
- Sporting Lisbon average 0.7 first-half goals per game, but 0.3 conceded.
- In the last 5 H2Hs, only 2 matches had more than 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's tendency to accelerate after the break and Rio Ave's second-half defensive frailties point to more goals in the second half.
- Sporting Lisbon score 60% of their away goals in the second half (20 of 34).
- Rio Ave concede 64% of their home goals in the second half (16 of 25).
- In 4 of the last 5 H2Hs, the second half produced at least 2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The corner averages for both teams hover around the 9.5 line, but Sporting's attacking pressure could push the total slightly over.
- Rio Ave average 5.0 corners per game overall; Sporting Lisbon average 5.3.
- Combined average corners in Rio Ave's home games is 10.1 (5.0 for, 5.1 against).
- Sporting's away games average 9.8 total corners (4.9 for, 4.9 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The card averages and recent H2H data suggest a moderate card count, with the competitive nature of the match likely to push it over 4.5.
- Rio Ave average 2.3 yellow cards per game; Sporting Lisbon average 1.7.
- Combined average cards in Rio Ave's home games is 4.4 (2.3 for, 2.1 against).
- In the last 5 H2Hs, total cards were 5, 4, 6, 3, and 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 5W

L4-0Sporting CPvRio AveDec 28, 2025PRI

L1-2Rio AvevSporting CPApr 22, 2025TAÇ

L2-0Sporting CPvRio AveApr 3, 2025TAÇ

L0-3Rio AvevSporting CPJan 18, 2025PRI

L3-1Sporting CPvRio AveAug 9, 2024PRI

Sporting Lisbon unbeaten in 5 meetingsSporting Lisbon: 3 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Rio Ave	32	8	11	13	33-52	35	DLDWL
3	Sporting Lisbon Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	32	23	7	2	82-23	76	WDDLW

41pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Rio Ave

D0-0GIL VicenteMay 3PRI

L0-2GuimaraesApr 25PRI

D2-2AVSApr 17PRI

W2-0Santa ClaraApr 11PRI

L1-2AlvercaApr 4PRI

W2-1EstorilMar 22PRI

W2-1EstrelaMar 15PRI

W1-0TondelaMar 9PRI

D0-0FamalicaoMar 1PRI

L0-1FC PortoFeb 22PRI

L1-2MoreirenseFeb 16PRI

L0-3SC BragaFeb 8PRI

L0-3AroucaJan 31PRI

L0-4NacionalJan 25PRI

L0-2BenficaJan 17PRI

Sporting Lisbon

W5-1GuimaraesMay 4PRI

D2-2TondelaApr 29PRI

D1-1AVSApr 26PRI

D0-0FC PortoApr 22TAÇ

L1-2BenficaApr 19PRI

D0-0ArsenalApr 15UEF

W1-0EstrelaApr 11PRI

L0-1ArsenalApr 7UEF

W4-2Santa ClaraApr 3PRI

W4-1AlvercaMar 22PRI

L0-3Bodo/GlimtMar 11UEF

D2-2SC BragaMar 7PRI

W1-0FC PortoMar 3TAÇ

W3-0EstorilFeb 27PRI

W3-0MoreirenseFeb 21PRI

Squad & Injuries

Rio Ave

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Sporting Lisbon

37 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw at half-time / Sporting Lisbon at full-time

No

Under 1.5

Over 1.5

Sporting Lisbon

Draw or Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Rio Ave

Sporting Lisbon

Squad & Injuries

Rio Ave

Sporting Lisbon