Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Brighton3Wolves0

HT 2–0Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 72%–28%ShotsShots 14–5On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 7–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Brighton are strong favourites at home to a Wolves side winless away all season, but the 1.29 odds offer no value.

The best betting edges lie in the goals markets: Under 1.5 first-half goals (65% estimate, +3pts edge) and Over 1.5 second-half goals (60% estimate, +2pts edge), reflecting Wolves' slow starts and second-half defensive collapses. Avoid the outright and double chance markets due to negative value.

Context

Wolves away record: 0 wins, 5 draws, 12 losses in 17 matches.
- They have scored only 7 away goals (0.41 per game) and conceded 30 (1.76 per game).
- In their last 5 away matches, Wolves have lost 4 and drawn 1, failing to score in 3 of those.
Brighton home record: 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses in 17 matches.
- In their last 8 home matches, Brighton have lost to Arsenal and Crystal Palace, and drawn with Everton and Bournemouth.
- They have kept only 6 home clean sheets, conceding in 11 of 17 home games.
Pereira was sacked on 2 Nov 2025, only 45 days after signing a new contract, with Wolves bottom of the league.
- Rob Edwards was appointed on 12 Nov 2025, but Wolves have continued to struggle, losing 23 of 35 league matches.
- The team has conceded 63 goals, the second-worst defensive record in the league.
Last three league H2H results: 0-0 (Jan 2024), 6-0 Brighton (Apr 2023), 1-0 Wolves (Dec 2021).
- The most recent meeting this season ended 1-1 at Molineux.
- Brighton have won only 2 of the last 6 meetings in all competitions.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's strong home form and Wolves' abysmal away record (0 wins, 30 goals conceded) make a home win highly likely, reinforced by Brighton's superior recent form.
- Brighton home record: 8W-6D-3L, 27 goals for, 17 against in 17 matches
- Wolves away record: 0W-5D-12L, 7 goals for, 30 against in 17 matches
- Brighton last 5 form: LWDWW (3W-1D-1L), Wolves last 5 form: DLLLD (0W-2D-3L)
- Wolves have lost 23 of 35 league matches, conceding 63 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrightonEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wolves have not won away all season, and Brighton have lost only 3 home games, making a Wolves win extremely unlikely; the double chance covers the most probable outcomes.
- Brighton home losses: only 3 in 17 matches
- Wolves away wins: 0 in 17 matches
- H2H last 3 Premier League meetings: 1 Brighton win, 2 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBrighton or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wolves often trail at half time, but Brighton's own first-half lead rate is modest, making a Brighton half-time lead a low-confidence but reasonable pick.
- Brighton leading at half time in 33% of matches
- Wolves trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Wolves first half goals conceded: 0.9 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBrightonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's tendency to improve in the second half, combined with Wolves' poor second-half defensive record, makes a Brighton second-half win probable.
- Brighton second half performance: often stronger, scoring majority of goals after break
- Wolves second half away: concede 1.76 goals on average
- Wolves overall goal difference: -38, with many goals conceded late
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBrightonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is common for both teams, and Brighton's second-half strength could lead to a home win, but the specific combination is not strongly supported.
- Brighton home half-time draws: 6 in 17 matches (35%)
- Wolves away half-time draws: 5 in 17 matches (29%)
- Brighton second half home performance: often stronger
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/BrightonEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's home games often see goals, and Wolves' defensive frailty on the road (30 conceded in 17) increases the likelihood of a higher-scoring match, though Wolves' own low scoring output tempers the probability.
- Brighton home matches average 2.59 total goals (27F, 17A in 17 games)
- Wolves away matches average 2.18 total goals (7F, 30A in 17 games)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Brighton last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Wolves struggle to score away, Brighton's home clean sheet rate is not dominant, and recent H2H meetings often see both teams score, suggesting a moderate chance.
- Brighton home clean sheets: 6 in 17 matches (35%)
- Wolves away scored in 7 of 17 matches (41%)
- Wolves away failed to score in 10 of 17 matches
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wolves' away scoring record is poor, but Brighton's home clean sheet rate is not high enough to make this a strong probability, though it remains a plausible outcome.
- Brighton home clean sheets: 6 in 17 (35%)
- Wolves away failed to score in 10 of 17 (59%)
- Wolves average 0.41 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWolves not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, with Wolves particularly poor before the break, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Brighton first half goals at home: 0.6 per match average
- Wolves first half goals away: 0.1 per match average
- Wolves trailing at half time in 53% of matches
- Brighton leading at half time in only 33% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wolves' defensive record worsens after the break, and Brighton tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Brighton home second half goals: average 1.0 (total 27 goals, 0.6 first half)
- Wolves away second half goals conceded: average 1.76 (30 total, 0.9 first half)
- Wolves concede heavily in second halves away from home
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's matches average over 10 corners, and while Wolves' totals are lower, Brighton's home corner numbers push the expected total above 9.5.
- Brighton average corners per match: 5.2, opponent corners: 5.2 (total 10.4)
- Wolves average corners per match: 3.2, opponent corners: 5.2 (total 8.4)
- Brighton home matches: average 5.2 corners for, opponent 5.2 against
- Last 5 H2H: corner totals of 12, 11, 7, 5, 6 (average 8.2)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game, and Wolves' disciplinary issues (0.5 red cards per match) increase the likelihood of cards exceeding 3.5.
- Brighton average yellow cards: 2.3 per match
- Wolves average yellow cards: 2.2 per match
- Combined average: 4.5 cards per match
- Wolves red cards: 0.5 per match average
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1WolvesvBrightonOct 5, 2025PL

W0-2WolvesvBrightonMay 10, 2025PL

D2-2BrightonvWolvesOct 26, 2024PL

W3-2BrightonvWolvesSep 18, 2024LEA

L1-0WolvesvBrightonFeb 28, 2024FAC

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Brighton	35	13	11	11	49-42	50	LWDWW
20	Wolves Relegation - Championship	35	3	9	23	25-63	18	DLLLD

32pt gap between teamsWolves in relegation zone

Recent Form

Brighton

L1-3NewcastleMay 2PL

W3-0ChelseaApr 21PL

D2-2TottenhamApr 18PL

W2-0BurnleyApr 11PL

W2-1LiverpoolMar 21PL

W1-0SunderlandMar 14PL

L0-1ArsenalMar 4PL

W2-1Nottingham ForestMar 1PL

W2-0BrentfordFeb 21PL

L0-3LiverpoolFeb 14FAC

L0-1Aston VillaFeb 11PL

L0-1Crystal PalaceFeb 8PL

D1-1EvertonJan 31PL

L1-2FulhamJan 24PL

D1-1BournemouthJan 19PL

Wolves

D1-1SunderlandMay 2PL

L0-1TottenhamApr 25PL

L0-3LeedsApr 18PL

L0-4West HamApr 10PL

D2-2BrentfordMar 16PL

L1-3LiverpoolMar 6FAC

W2-1LiverpoolMar 3PL

W2-0Aston VillaFeb 27PL

L0-1Crystal PalaceFeb 22PL

D2-2ArsenalFeb 18PL

W1-0GrimsbyFeb 15FAC

D0-0Nottingham ForestFeb 11PL

L1-3ChelseaFeb 7PL

L0-2BournemouthJan 31PL

L0-2Manchester CityJan 24PL

Squad & Injuries

Brighton

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Wolves

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Under 1.5

Over 1.5

Over 9.5

Brighton

Brighton or Draw

Brighton

Over 2.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Brighton

Wolves

Squad & Injuries

Brighton

Wolves