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Predictions graded

CFR Cluj0Universitatea Craiova0

HT 0–0Fri 8 May 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–0100%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 7–7On targetOn target 1–0CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 May 2026, 14:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Most likely match script: a tense, low-scoring game with a slow first half, then a better chance of the decisive moment arriving after the break.

Best actionable angles are Under 3.5 goals and Under 1.5 first-half goals, while CFR or draw at half-time looks stronger than forcing a full-time winner pick.

Context

The last four head-to-head meetings brought three Craiova wins and one draw.
- Craiova won the last two meetings 3-1 in the Cup on 2026-03-04 and 2-0 in Liga I on 2026-04-06.
- CFR did not score in either of those last two matches.
CFR average 43.8% possession over their last 15 matches, which fits a compact and reactive setup.
- CFR's three championship-round home matches in 2026 produced 3 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- Craiova average 56.6% possession and 4.9 shots on target over their last 15 matches.
- Craiova's three championship-round away matches in 2026 produced only 2 goals scored, so their control has not turned into easy away wins.
Craiova are first on 45 points, while CFR are third on 40 in the championship round.
- Craiova have gone 4W-1L in their last five matches; CFR have gone 3W-1D-1L.
- Craiova kept clean sheets in three of those four recent wins, which shows they are arriving with controlled results.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 3.5

1.22fair 1.19

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Recent totals, championship-round home and away splits, and a title-race tactical setup all support a controlled match that stays below four goals more often than the price suggests.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CFR Cluj or Draw

1.30fair 1.21

BetBugs 74% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

Venue splits strengthen the early-control read: CFR Cluj have not trailed at half-time in their last 15 matches and have avoided a half-time home deficit in 8 straight, which makes the 1.30 protection line slightly too big.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation and H2H both lean toward away protection here, and with no listed absences plus venue-specific travel detail unavailable, the split data still points more toward Craiova avoiding defeat than toward a full CFR Cluj reset.
- Universitatea Craiova are 1st on 45 points, while CFR Cluj are 3rd on 40 in the 2026 championship round.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in the last 4 H2Hs with CFR Cluj: 3 wins and 1 draw.
- The last 2 H2Hs were 2-0 and 3-1 wins for Universitatea Craiova on 2026-04-06 and 2026-03-04.
- The squad report dated 2026-05-08 lists no injuries for either team.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Universitatea CraiovaEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Craiova get the slight edge from recent H2H psychology and current-leader stakes, but the probability stays low because CFR Cluj still carry a meaningful structural home advantage and the injuries report gives neither side a manpower edge.
- Universitatea Craiova's last 5 matches: 4 wins, 1 loss, 6 goals scored and 5 conceded.
- CFR Cluj's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with the loss a 0-2 defeat to Craiova on 2026-04-06.
- Universitatea Craiova have won 3 of the last 4 H2Hs with CFR Cluj since 2025-08-03.
- CFR Cluj's 2025 Superliga home record was strong at 9 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUniversitatea CraiovaEstimated chance36%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CFR Cluj's clearest structural edge is early-game control, while Craiova's threat has been more decisive over full matches than in fast starts.
- CFR Cluj's trailingAtHalfTime rate is 0 across their last 15 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova led at half-time in only 27% of their last 15 matches.
- CFR Cluj's last 5 half-time results were W, D, D, D, and D.
- Universitatea Craiova average 0.3 first-half goals over the last 15.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCFR Cluj or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With title stakes high, CFR Cluj's compact 43.8% possession and 0.9 goals-against profile versus Craiova's possession-heavy but only moderately productive attack points to a controlled tactical game, while no reported absences remove a personnel-based reason to expect chaos.
- CFR Cluj last 15: 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Universitatea Craiova last 15: 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- CFR Cluj championship-round home record in 2026: 3 goals scored and 1 conceded in 3 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova championship-round away record in 2026: 2 goals scored and 4 conceded in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The strongest signals are H2H psychology and tactical control, because Craiova have recently shut CFR Cluj out while CFR's home defensive structure still points more toward 0-1, 1-0, or 0-0 than a mutual scoring game.
- Universitatea Craiova kept 8 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Only 5 of Universitatea Craiova's last 15 matches finished with both teams scoring.
- CFR Cluj failed to score in the last 2 H2Hs with Craiova: 2026-03-04 and 2026-04-06.
- CFR Cluj conceded only 1 goal across their 3 championship-round home matches in 2026.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show conservative first-half profiles, and the tactical clash of CFR Cluj's compact shape against Craiova's slower possession game points to another cagey opening period.
- CFR Cluj first-half averages over the last 15: 0.8 scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Universitatea Craiova first-half averages over the last 15: 0.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.
- 11 of CFR Cluj's last 15 matches were level at half-time.
- The last league H2H on 2026-04-06 was 0-0 at half-time before Craiova won 2-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Early-game caution and strong first-half defensive numbers outweigh everything else here, so the most likely first-half state is that at least one side stays scoreless before the break.
- CFR Cluj have not trailed at half-time in any of their last 15 matches.
- CFR Cluj concede only 0.3 first-half goals per game over the last 15.
- Universitatea Craiova average just 0.3 first-half goals over the last 15.
- Only 4 of CFR Cluj's last 15 matches and 3 of Craiova's last 15 matches had 2 or more total first-half goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides are materially more active after the break than before it, so the tactical pattern and title-race pressure favor at least one second-half goal even if the first half is slow.
- 13 of CFR Cluj's last 15 matches had at least 1 second-half goal.
- 11 of Universitatea Craiova's last 15 matches had at least 1 second-half goal.
- CFR Cluj's full-match goal average is 2.4, but only 1.1 of that comes in first halves.
- Universitatea Craiova's full-match goal average is 2.3, but only 0.8 of that comes in first halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance67%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup favors Craiova shot volume because they usually control possession and CFR Cluj often concede territory, which should still let the visitors test the goalkeeper even in a tighter scoreline.
- Universitatea Craiova average 4.9 shots on target across their last 15 matches.
- In their last 5 matches, Craiova recorded 9, 4, 2, 9, and 6 shots on target.
- CFR Cluj allowed opponents 7, 1, 3, 5, and 6 shots on target in their last 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova average 56.6% possession over the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Shots on Target TotallostUniversitatea Craiova over 3.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Craiova's possession-heavy attacking structure is more consistently reflected in corners than in goals, especially if CFR Cluj spend long spells defending deeper under the pressure of the table.
- Universitatea Craiova average 5.1 corners over their last 15 matches.
- In their last 5 matches, Craiova won 4, 5, 4, 5, and 6 corners.
- CFR Cluj's last 5 opponents won 5, 2, 4, 2, and 6 corners against them.
- Universitatea Craiova average 56.6% possession over the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away CornerslostUniversitatea Craiova over 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Discipline data and the title-race stakes both point to a tense, stop-start game in which tactical fouls and cautions are more likely than a clean-flowing contest.
- CFR Cluj average 2.4 yellow cards and 12.5 fouls over their last 15 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova average 2.3 yellow cards and 11.4 fouls over their last 15 matches.
- In the 2026 championship round, this is 1st versus 3rd with only 5 points between the teams.
- Across the last 5 matches, CFR Cluj and Craiova combined for 4 or more cards in 6 of 10 team samples.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-0Universitatea CraiovavCFR 1907 ClujApr 6, 2026LIG

L3-1Universitatea CraiovavCFR 1907 ClujMar 4, 2026CUP

D1-1Universitatea CraiovavCFR 1907 ClujDec 7, 2025LIG

W2-3CFR 1907 ClujvUniversitatea CraiovaAug 3, 2025LIG

D2-2Universitatea CraiovavCFR 1907 ClujMay 10, 2025LIG

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga I 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	CFR Cluj Qualification Playoffs	7	4	1	2	7-6	40	WWWDL
1	Universitatea Craiova Champions League Qualification	7	5	0	2	7-6	45	WWWLW

5pt gap between teamsUniversitatea Craiova leads the league

Recent Form

CFR Cluj

W2-1RapidMay 4LIG

W1-0Universitatea ClujApr 25LIG

W1-0Arges PitestiApr 17LIG

D1-1Dinamo BucurestiApr 12LIG

L0-2Universitatea CraiovaApr 6LIG

W3-2ASA Targu MuresMar 28FRI

W1-0RapidMar 20LIG

L1-2Universitatea ClujMar 16LIG

W2-0Dinamo BucurestiMar 9LIG

W2-1Farul ConstantaFeb 28LIG

W2-1Petrolul PloiestiFeb 21LIG

W1-0AFC HermannstadtFeb 16LIG

D1-1RapidFeb 10CUP

W3-2Universitatea ClujFeb 7LIG

W1-0Uta AradFeb 4LIG

Universitatea Craiova

W2-1Dinamo BucurestiMay 3LIG

W1-0Arges PitestiApr 27LIG

W1-0RapidApr 19LIG

L0-4Universitatea ClujApr 13LIG

W2-0CFR 1907 ClujApr 6LIG

W1-0Dinamo BucurestiMar 19LIG

L0-1Arges PitestiMar 13LIG

D1-1RapidMar 8LIG

W2-1MetaloglobusFeb 28LIG

W3-0Unirea SloboziaFeb 22LIG

W1-0FCSBFeb 15LIG

D2-2FCSBFeb 12CUP

D1-1Dinamo BucurestiFeb 9LIG

W1-0OţelulFeb 5LIG

L1-4Farul ConstantaFeb 1LIG

Squad & Injuries

CFR Cluj

29 available

Attackers3

Midfielders15

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Universitatea Craiova

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper6