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Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon - Guimaraes

Guimaraes
🇵🇹 Primeira LigaFinished
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 19:15

Finished Snapshot

FT5-1
FinishedSettled

Halftime

3-0

Predictions

8W · 3L · 0P

Edges

0W · 2L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

51%-49%

Shots

14-13

Shots on Target

10-5

Corners

1-7

Quick Take

Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.

Sporting have the stronger motivation and the much better home profile, so they are the likelier winner, but recent head-to-head results argue against treating this as an easy blowout. The top actionable angle is the first-half under: the slow-start data is stronger than the short home-win prices, which look overvalued rather than attractive.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.571%+11.1pp
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 0.536%+10.0pp

Context Signals

The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.

Betting Edges

Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.

Model probabilities

The model view before price and edge filtering.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W
W1-2Sporting CPvGuimaraesJan 6, 2026TAÇ
W1-4GuimaraesvSporting CPDec 23, 2025PRI
L2-0Sporting CPvGuimaraesMay 17, 2025PRI
D4-4GuimaraesvSporting CPJan 3, 2025PRI
L3-0Sporting CPvGuimaraesApr 21, 2024PRI
Guimaraes: 2 clean sheets4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
3
Sporting LisbonSporting Lisbon
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
31227277-2273
7
GuimaraesGuimaraes
311261338-4342
31pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon

D2-2TondelaApr 29PRI
D1-1AVSApr 26PRI
D0-0FC PortoApr 22TAÇ
L1-2BenficaApr 19PRI
D0-0ArsenalApr 15UEF
W1-0EstrelaApr 11PRI
L0-1ArsenalApr 7UEF
W4-2Santa ClaraApr 3PRI
W4-1AlvercaMar 22PRI
L0-3Bodo/GlimtMar 11UEF
Guimaraes

Guimaraes

W2-0Rio AveApr 25PRI
W1-0GIL VicenteApr 18PRI
D1-1AVSApr 11PRI
W5-0TondelaApr 3PRI
L0-3BenficaMar 21PRI
L1-2FamalicaoMar 14PRI
L0-2Santa ClaraMar 8PRI
D1-1AlvercaFeb 28PRI
L2-3SC BragaFeb 21PRI
W2-1EstrelaFeb 14PRI

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Lisbon

39 available
Attackers8
Midfielders13
Defenders14
Goalkeeper4

Guimaraes

31 available
Attackers5
Midfielders12
Defenders10
Goalkeeper4
Sporting come into this with the clearer need. They are 3rd on 73 points with a +55 goal difference, still chasing Champions League qualification, while Guimaraes are 7th on 42 points and already out of the European race. The structural split is strong as well: Sporting are 11-2-2 at home with 43 scored and 10 conceded, whereas Guimaraes are 4-2-9 away with only 12 goals scored in 15 road matches. That said, the matchup is not as one-sided as the badge names suggest.