Everton - Manchester City
🇬🇧 Premier LeagueFinished
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 19:00
Finished Snapshot
FT3-3
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-1
Predictions
5W · 4L · 0P
Edges
1W · 3L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
25%-75%
Shots
14-20
Shots on Target
6-4
Corners
5-9
Quick Take
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
The likeliest outcome is a controlled Manchester City win with Everton struggling to create enough to score twice, and possibly at all. The best value angle is City over 6.5 corners, while Everton under 0.5 goals is the more aggressive secondary play; the straight City win looks more likely than mispriced.
1 St Half Both Teams To ScoreNo82%Fair price
Total Goals HomeUnder 1.580%Fair price
Away CornersOver 6.574%+24.0pp
Context Signals
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Betting Edges
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Head-to-Head
0W · 1D · 4WL2-0Manchester CityvEvertonOct 18, 2025PL
L0-2EvertonvManchester CityApr 19, 2025PL
D1-1Manchester CityvEvertonDec 26, 2024PL
L2-0Manchester CityvEvertonFeb 10, 2024PL
L1-3EvertonvManchester CityDec 27, 2023PL
Manchester City unbeaten in 5 meetingsManchester City: 3 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg
League Table
Premier League 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Everton | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 41-41 | 47 |
| 2 | Manchester City Promotion - Champions League (League phase) | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66-29 | 70 |
23pt gap between teams
Recent Form
Everton
L1-2West HamApr 25PL
L1-2LiverpoolApr 19PL
D2-2BrentfordApr 11PL
W3-0ChelseaMar 21PL
L0-2ArsenalMar 14PL
W2-0BurnleyMar 3PL
W3-2NewcastleFeb 28PL
L0-1Manchester UnitedFeb 23PL
L1-2BournemouthFeb 10PL
W2-1FulhamFeb 7PL
Manchester City
W2-1SouthamptonApr 25FAC
W1-0BurnleyApr 22PL
W2-1ArsenalApr 19PL
W3-0ChelseaApr 12PL
W4-0LiverpoolApr 4FAC
W2-0ArsenalMar 22LEA
L1-2Real MadridMar 17UEF
D1-1West HamMar 14PL
L0-3Real MadridMar 11UEF
W3-1NewcastleMar 7FAC
Squad & Injuries
Everton
4 out#32 J. Branthwaite — Injury
#18 J. Grealish — Foot Injury
#32 J. Branthwaite — Injury
#18 J. Grealish — Foot Injury
Manchester City
6 out#3 R. Dias — Muscle Injury
#24 J. Gvardiol — Broken Leg
#16 Rodri — Groin Injury
#3 R. Dias — Muscle Injury
#24 J. Gvardiol — Broken Leg
#16 Rodri — Groin Injury
This sets up as a pressure-on-City match more than a true coin flip. Manchester City are 2nd on 70 points after 33 matches, six behind Arsenal with two games in hand, while Everton sit 11th on 47 after 34. The form and venue history are both strongly tilted: City have won their last five visits to Everton, going 11-1 on aggregate, and they arrive on a five-match winning run with 12 scored and only 2 conceded.
The most likely game script is sustained City control rather than chaos.