
Almeria - Mirandes

🇪🇸 La Liga 2Finished
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 18:30
Finished Snapshot
FT4-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
2-2
Predictions
9W · 1L · 0P
Edges
3W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
59%-41%
Shots
9-12
Shots on Target
3-5
Corners
5-6
Quick Take
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
Almeria are the likelier side because of their strong home record and Mirandes' weak away split, but the recent head-to-heads say this should be tight rather than dominant. The clearest actionable angles are Almeria or draw and over 1.5 goals; the straight home win looks less attractive because the market appears to price in too much comfort.
Double ChanceAlmeria or Draw90%+1.0pp
Goals Over/UnderOver 1.589%+1.0pp
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.581%+1.0pp
Context Signals
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Betting Edges
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Head-to-Head
3W · 2D · 0WD2-2MirandesvAlmeriaJan 10, 2026SEG
D0-0MirandesvAlmeriaMay 25, 2025SEG
W1-0AlmeriavMirandesDec 13, 2024SEG
W2-1AlmeriavMirandesFeb 20, 2022SEG
W1-4MirandesvAlmeriaOct 24, 2021SEG
Almeria unbeaten in 5 meetingsAlmeria: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg
League Table
Segunda División 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AlmeriaPromotion Playoffs | 37 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 74-56 | 67 |
| 20 | MirandesRelegation | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 40-60 | 36 |
31pt gap between teamsMirandes in relegation zone
Recent Form

Almeria
W4-2Granada CFApr 26SEG
W3-2MalagaApr 19SEG
L1-5Racing SantanderApr 12SEG
W2-1LeganesApr 5SEG
L0-2CastellónApr 2SEG
W5-1Real Sociedad IIMar 29SEG
W3-1HuescaMar 20SEG
L0-2ZaragozaMar 14SEG
W3-0Cultural LeonesaMar 9SEG
D1-1AlbaceteFeb 27SEG

Mirandes
W2-1Cultural LeonesaApr 26SEG
L1-3Deportivo La CorunaApr 20SEG
D2-2CastellónApr 12SEG
W2-1ZaragozaApr 5SEG
D1-1AlbaceteMar 31SEG
D2-2CordobaMar 27SEG
W2-1ValladolidMar 22SEG
L0-2CadizMar 13SEG
L0-2BurgosMar 7SEG
L0-1AD Ceuta FCMar 1SEG
Squad & Injuries
Almeria
30 availableMirandes
34 availableAlmeria come in with the stronger base, but this does not look like a routine home procession. They are 3rd on 67 points and 13-2-3 at home, while Mirandes are 20th on 36 and still fighting for survival. The 29 April match-context intel framed this as urgent for both clubs, which points to a tense game state rather than an open, carefree favorite.
The evidence still leans toward Almeria controlling territory. They average 2.56 home goals, their recent shot volume has been strong, and Mirandes are only 4-4-10 away.
