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Juventus - Hellas Verona
🇮🇹 Serie AUpcoming
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 16:00
Quick Take
Juventus are the clear likely winner, but the better betting angle is the match tempo rather than the short home price. Under 3.5 goals and first-half Under 1.5 stand out most, backed by Juventus' four straight clean sheets under Spalletti, Verona's relegated status, and Verona's weak away attack.
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.570%+3.3pp
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.569%+4.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Home (Juventus):Implied 83% is above our 77% estimate, so the price already overstates Juventus despite the strong home-versus-away matchup.
1st Half Double Chance Home (Juventus) or Draw:Implied 95% leaves no cushion versus our 85% estimate; Verona rarely lead early, but 1.05 is still too short for the residual downside.
1st Half Result Home (Juventus):Implied 64% sits well above our 56% estimate, and Juventus' 50% halftime lead rate does not justify paying a premium for the fast-start scenario.
Juventus come in with both the stronger base numbers and the sharper motivation. They are fourth on 64 points after 34 matches, only three points clear of both Como and Roma, so there is still real pressure around the top-four race. At home they are 10-6-1 with a 34-13 goal split, while Hellas Verona are 19th, already mathematically relegated as of May 2, and have gone 2-5-10 away with just 11 goals scored.
The defensive evidence is what makes this matchup especially one-sided.
Recent Form
Juventus
D0-0AC MilanApr 26SA
W2-0BolognaApr 19SA
W1-0AtalantaApr 11SA
W2-0GenoaApr 6SA
D1-1SassuoloMar 21SA
W1-0UdineseMar 14SA
W4-0PisaMar 7SA
D3-3AS RomaMar 1SA
L0-2ComoFeb 21SA
L2-5GalatasarayFeb 17UEF
Hellas Verona
D0-0LecceApr 25SA
L0-1AC MilanApr 19SA
L1-2TorinoApr 11SA
L0-1FiorentinaApr 4SA
L0-1AtalantaMar 22SA
L0-2GenoaMar 15SA
W2-1BolognaMar 8SA
L1-2NapoliFeb 28SA
L0-3SassuoloFeb 20SA
L1-2ParmaFeb 15SA
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Juventus Promotion - Champions League (League phase) | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 57-29 | 64 |
| 19 | Hellas Verona Relegation - Serie B | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 23-56 | 19 |
45pt gap between teamsHellas Verona in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
3W · 2D · 0WD1-1Hellas VeronavJuventusSep 20, 2025SA
W2-0JuventusvHellas VeronaMar 3, 2025SA
W0-3Hellas VeronavJuventusAug 26, 2024SA
D2-2Hellas VeronavJuventusFeb 17, 2024SA
W1-0JuventusvHellas VeronaOct 28, 2023SA
Juventus unbeaten in 5 meetingsJuventus: 3 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Juventus
4 out#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury
#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury
#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury
#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury
Hellas Verona
12 out#25 D. Mosquera — Knee Injury
#8 S. Serdar — Knee Injury
#6 N. Valentini — Yellow Cards
#37 A. Bella-Kotchap — Injury
#16 G. Orban — Inactive
#2 D. Oyegoke — Injury
#25 D. Mosquera — Knee Injury
#8 S. Serdar — Knee Injury
#6 N. Valentini — Yellow Cards
#37 A. Bella-Kotchap — Injury
#16 G. Orban — Inactive
#2 D. Oyegoke — Injury