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Pisa

Pisa - Lecce

Lecce
🇮🇹 Serie AFinished
Friday, May 1, 2026 at 18:45

Finished Snapshot

FT1-2
FinishedSettled

Halftime

0-0

Predictions

6W · 5L · 0P

Edges

2W · 2L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

58%-42%

Shots

18-7

Shots on Target

7-4

Corners

6-1

Quick Take

Extreme motivation asymmetry—Pisa relegated with zero incentive vs Lecce fighting for Serie A survival—combined with Lecce's H2H dominance (5 wins in 8, 2-0 win in December 2025) and worst home-scoring record in the league (0.47/game) make Lecce underpriced at 2.50, offering +12pts edge; Double Chance (Draw or Lecce) at 1.40 provides a higher-confidence alternative (+7pts) given Pisa's catastrophic home record (2W-4D-11L).

Double ChanceDraw or Away (Lecce)78%+7.0pp
Total Goals HomeUnder 1.5 (Pisa)76%+0.0pp
Match WinnerAway (Lecce)52%+12.0pp

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Pisa:Implied 33% at 3.00 odds leaves no cushion versus weak directional thesis; Pisa are mathematically relegated with zero sporting motivation and have lost 4 consecutive matches.
1st Half Winner Pisa:Pisa average just 0.2 firstHalfGoals per match (17 home games this season) with only 10% leadingAtHalfTime rate; odds at 3.75 imply 27% but real threat is <15%; relegated side shows no first-half intensity.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Over 1.5:Implied 77.5% (1.29 odds) leaves insufficient margin given our estimate of ~30-35% probability for 2+ first-half goals; borderline directional thesis with heavy vig.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Pisa vs Lecce on May 1 presents one of the starkest motivation asymmetries in late-season football: Pisa were mathematically relegated on April 25 after losing 1-0 to Parma, returning to Serie B after just one season in the top flight, while Lecce sit in 17th place—just one point above the relegation zone—in a survival six-pointer. The home side's lack of sporting motivation is compounded by their catastrophic form (four consecutive defeats, 0 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches) and the worst home-scoring record in the division at 0.47 goals per game.

Recent Form

Pisa

Pisa

L0-1ParmaApr 25SA
L1-2GenoaApr 19SA
L0-3AS RomaApr 10SA
L0-1TorinoApr 5SA
L0-5ComoMar 22SA
W3-1CagliariMar 15SA
L0-4JuventusMar 7SA
L0-1BolognaMar 2SA
L0-1FiorentinaFeb 23SA
L1-2AC MilanFeb 13SA
Lecce

Lecce

D0-0Hellas VeronaApr 25SA
D1-1FiorentinaApr 20SA
L0-2BolognaApr 12SA
L0-3AtalantaApr 6SA
L0-1AS RomaMar 22SA
L1-2NapoliMar 14SA
W2-1CremoneseMar 8SA
L1-3ComoFeb 28SA
L0-2InterFeb 21SA
W2-0CagliariFeb 16SA

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
20
PisaPisa
Relegation - Serie B
342122024-6118
17
LecceLecce
34781922-4629
11pt gap between teamsPisa in relegation zone

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W
L1-0LeccevPisaDec 12, 2025SA
L2-0LeccevPisaApr 25, 2022SER
W1-0PisavLecceDec 11, 2021SER
L0-1PisavLecceApr 5, 2021SER
W0-3LeccevPisaDec 19, 2020SER
Pisa: 2 clean sheetsLecce: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Pisa

32 available
Attackers6
Midfielders13
Defenders8
Goalkeeper5

Lecce

1 out
Attackers6
Midfielders1/12
×#36
Defenders9
Goalkeeper5
#36 F. Marchwiński — Jumpers knee