Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

UEFA Europa LeagueFinished

Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 19:00

Finished Snapshot

FT1-0

FinishedSettled

Halftime

0-0

Predictions

7W · 5L · 0P

Edges

0W · 0L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

50%-50%

Shots

11-10

Shots on Target

5-4

Corners

5-7

Quick Take

Forest's hostile home EL advantage (3W-0D-1L, 11 goals scored) and Gibbs-White's top-scorer form, combined with Villa's Emery exit distraction (Chelsea/Man Utd links confirmed Apr 18–23, days before the semi), back a draw-or-home first-leg outcome (68% estimated probability) and...

Context Signals

Model probabilities

Home Goals TotalNottingham Forest Over 0.575%Mediumwon

Forest's home EL scoring rate and Gibbs-White's top-scorer form make Forest finding the net the most probable outcome (Structural Home Edge + Tactical signal).

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Double ChanceHome or Draw (Nottingham Forest or Draw)68%Mediumwon

Structural home edge at City Ground (perfect home EL record, hostile semi-final atmosphere) combined with the narrow 1-1 H2H result 18 days ago and the Emery distraction tilts the first-leg into a contest where Forest avoid defeat more often than not.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Away Goals TotalAston Villa Over 0.565%Mediumlost

Villa's strong scoring profile, particularly away in Europe (5/6 wins), supports them finding the net despite Forest's home defensive form (Structural away edge in EL).

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.564%Mediumlost

Knockout stakes plus combined yellow-card averages just below 3 are likely pushed over 3.5 by added physicality (Motivation/Stakes signal).

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.562%Mediumwon

Both teams concede sparingly before the break and Villa rarely trail at halftime (10%); first-leg knockout caution further suppresses early goals (Tactical Matchup Edge).

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 7.560%Mediumwon

Combined shots-on-target averages (8.5) and recent H2H sample (9) both clear 7.5 comfortably; both sides take shots regularly.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Double Chance First HalfDraw or Aston Villa (1st Half)60%Lowlost

Villa's strong first-half discipline (only 10% trailing at HT) makes them unlikely to be behind at the break, supporting draw-or-Villa double chance (Tactical Matchup Edge).

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Lean

Home CornersOver 4.558%Mediumwon

Forest's home corner volume in EL (8 vs Porto) and recent 7 vs Villa both exceed 4.5; structural home edge supports continued attacking pressure.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.556%Mediumwon

Both teams' defensive metrics and the cautious dynamics of a first-leg semi-final, plus the most recent 1-1 meeting, support a low-scoring contest (Tactical Matchup Edge + H2H Psychology).

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.554%Lowlost

Combined corner averages sit just below 9 with Villa's away corner counts trending low and Forest's counter-attacking style; LOW confidence due to small sample variance (Tactical signal).

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Both Teams to ScoreNo47%Lowwon

Injuries to Villa's central midfield (Kamara, Onana) plus Forest's strong recent defensive runs raise the chance one team fails to score, though Villa's overall scoring is robust enough to keep this LOW confidence (Injuries + Tactical signal).

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Match WinnerDraw30%Lowlost

Tactical matchup edge favours a balanced first leg given two-leg knockout urgency, the recent 1-1 PL meeting, and Villa's away EL caution (3W-0D-1L away with low concession rate).

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Double Chance Nottingham Forest or Draw:Market at 71.43% implies pricing is overvalued relative to 68% estimate; insufficient edge for MEDIUM confidence (need 5+ pts cushion). Forest's extensive injury list (7 players out) adds downside uncertainty, and Villa's strong away EL record (5-1 in competition) threatens the draw/home scenarios.

1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Implied probability (73.5%) substantially exceeds our estimate (62%); bookmaker confidence suggests late-breaking information; insufficient margin for a MEDIUM-confidence wager.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa is the first all-Midlands UEFA semi-final in European history, a high-stakes first leg at hostile City Ground between two former European champions (Forest 1979–80, Villa 1982). The recent 1-1 Premier League draw on April 12, 2026—just 18 days prior—signals genuine competitive parity despite Villa's superior H2H record (7W-3D-3L in last 13 meetings).

Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

W5-0SunderlandApr 24PL

W4-1BurnleyApr 19PL

W1-0FC PortoApr 16UEF

D1-1Aston VillaApr 12PL

D1-1FC PortoApr 9UEF

W3-0TottenhamMar 22PL

D0-0FulhamMar 15PL

L0-1FC MidtjyllandMar 12UEF

D2-2Manchester CityMar 4PL

L1-2BrightonMar 1PL

Aston Villa

L0-1FulhamApr 25PL

W4-3SunderlandApr 19PL

W4-0BolognaApr 16UEF

D1-1Nottingham ForestApr 12PL

W3-1BolognaApr 9UEF

L1-2ElcheMar 27FRI

W2-0West HamMar 22PL

W2-0LilleMar 19UEF

L1-3Manchester UnitedMar 15PL

W1-0LilleMar 12UEF

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Nottingham Forest Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	8	4	2	2	15-7	14	WLWWD
2	Aston Villa Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	8	7	0	1	14-6	21	WWWWW

7pt gap between teamsAston Villa leads the league

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D1-1Nottingham ForestvAston VillaApr 12, 2026PL

L3-1Aston VillavNottingham ForestJan 3, 2026PL

L2-1Aston VillavNottingham ForestApr 5, 2025PL

W2-1Nottingham ForestvAston VillaDec 14, 2024PL

L4-2Aston VillavNottingham ForestFeb 24, 2024PL

3.6 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Nottingham Forest

18 out

Attackers4/6

×#9

×#7

×#9

×#7

Midfielders11

Defenders10/10

×#30

×#5

×#25

×#37

×#23

×#30

×#5

×#25

×#37

×#23

Goalkeeper2/6

×#13

#9 T. Awoniyi — Inactive

#30 W. Boly — Knee Injury

#7 C. Hudson-Odoi — Injury

#13 John Victor — Knee Injury

#5 Murillo — Muscle Injury

#25 L. Netz — Inactive

#37 N. Savona — Knee Injury

E. da Silva Moreira — Inactive

#23 Cunha — Injury

#9 T. Awoniyi — Inactive

#30 W. Boly — Knee Injury

#7 C. Hudson-Odoi — Injury

#13 John Victor — Knee Injury

#5 Murillo — Muscle Injury

#25 L. Netz — Inactive

#37 N. Savona — Knee Injury

E. da Silva Moreira — Inactive

#23 Cunha — Injury

Aston Villa

10 out

Attackers4/7

×#47

×#24

×#47

×#24

Midfielders6/14

×#6

×#44

×#24

×#6

×#44

×#24

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

#47 Alysson — Injury

#6 R. Barkley — Inactive

#44 B. Kamara — Knee Injury

#24 B. Madjo — Inactive

#24 A. Onana — Injury

#47 Alysson — Injury

#6 R. Barkley — Inactive

#44 B. Kamara — Knee Injury

#24 B. Madjo — Inactive

#24 A. Onana — Injury

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

Quick Take

Context Signals

Emery to Chelsea/Man Utd Rumours Land 5 Days Pre-Semi

Villa Lose Both First-Choice Defensive Mids: Kamara and Onana

Forest Defence Stripped: Murillo, Boly, Savona All Out

First All-Midlands UEFA Semi Magnifies City Ground Atmosphere

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

League Table

Head-to-Head

Squad & Injuries

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa