Shimizu S Pulse - V Varen Nagasaki
Finished Snapshot
Halftime
1-1
Predictions
1W · 10L · 0P
Edges
0W · 2L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
Shots
Shots on Target
Corners
Quick Take
Shimizu are heavy favourites backed by home advantage, H2H dominance (4W in last 9 vs Nagasaki), and a 3-0 demolition 24 days ago; the 2.20 odds imply 45% win probability but structured data supports ~52%, offering modest edge for backing the home favourite.
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 74% → Our estimate: 75% → Edge: +1pts
- •Shimizu unbeaten last 7 vs Nagasaki (4W 3D in H2H last 9)
- •Nagasaki away form last 6: 1W 5L (17% win rate)
- •Nagasaki newly promoted after 6 years in J2; transitional form volatility
Implied: 45% → Our estimate: 52% → Edge: +7pts
- •Shimizu 3W 0D 2L at home this season (60% win rate)
- •Nagasaki 2W 0D 4L away (33% win rate)
- •Shimizu beat Nagasaki 3-0 on April 5, 2026 (24 days prior, same competition)
Model probabilities
Combining H2H Psychology (Nagasaki have not beaten Shimizu recently) with Shimizu's home edge gives a high-floor probability that Nagasaki will not win outright.
Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean
Both sides post low first-half scoring rates; Tactical Matchup Edge plus subdued first-half output across both teams supports Under 1.5 HT goals.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean
Combined SoT averages plus the recent H2H total leaning around 7-8 keep this near a coin-flip, with a slight lean Over given Shimizu's home attacking output.
Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Lean
Discipline data shows steady booking rates and high foul totals from both sides, leaning Over 3.5 cards as a LOW-confidence stat call.
Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Lean
Nagasaki's poor scoring form (3 blanks in last 5) and Shimizu's adequate home defence (recent clean sheet vs same opponent) tilts BTTS toward No, leaning on Tactical Matchup Edge from the recent meeting.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Corner averages combined sit below 9 and the recent meeting closed at 8; corners trending Under 9.5 (LOW because corner data has high variance).
Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Modest scoring averages on both sides, especially Nagasaki's blunt attack, lean Under 2.5; LOW confidence because Shimizu's home games have shown variance (1-0, 3-1).
Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Strong H2H psychology after a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture combined with Structural Home/Away Edge (Shimizu 60% home win rate vs Nagasaki's away struggles) make Shimizu the clear stats-based favourite.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Tactical Matchup Edge already demonstrated in the 3-0 reverse fixture plus structural home advantage support backing Shimizu to win outright.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Shimizu's home scoring rate combined with Nagasaki's weak away defence supports Shimizu scoring multiple, but kept LOW because Shimizu's home form is draw-heavy in 100YV West.
Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip
H2H Psychology (recent CS vs same opponent) plus Nagasaki's blunt away attack support Shimizu CS, but kept LOW because Shimizu's home defence is not elite.
Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Markets to Avoid
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Recent Form
Shimizu S Pulse
V Varen Nagasaki
League Table
J1 League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shimizu S Pulse Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 15-16 | 17 |
| 10 | V Varen Nagasaki Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11-19 | 13 |