Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg: result, stats and head-to-head

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's dominant home record, Freiburg's dismal away form, overwhelming H2H superiority, and Champions League race pressure all converge to make a Dortmund win the most likely outcome.
- Dortmund home record 2025-26: 11W-2D-2L, 33GF/14GA (2.2 GF/game)
- Freiburg away record 2025-26: 4W-3D-8L, 16GF/28GA (1.07 GF/game)
- H2H last 5: Dortmund 3W-1D-0L, scoring 16 goals (3.2 avg)
- Dortmund 2nd (64pts) fighting to stay ahead of Leipzig (62pts) — high motivation
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorussia DortmundEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's near-impregnable home record, Freiburg's chronic away struggles, and zero H2H wins for Freiburg in recent meetings make a Freiburg away win highly unlikely.
- Dortmund home: 13 of 15 unbeaten (11W-2D), only 2 losses
- Freiburg away: only 4 wins in 15 away games this season
- H2H last 5: Freiburg have 0 wins (3L, 1D from their perspective)
- Dortmund in CL race (2nd, 64pts) vs Freiburg mid-table with less at stake
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBorussia Dortmund or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Dortmund's H2H margin and home goal difference support a multi-goal win, the most recent 1-1 draw and Dortmund's two recent losses inject enough uncertainty to keep this at medium confidence.
- H2H: Dortmund won by 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 meetings (4-2, 3-0, 4-0)
- Dortmund home GD: +19 in 15 home games (+1.27/game)
- Freiburg away GD: -12 in 15 away games (-0.80/game)
- Dortmund's must-win CL race context vs Leipzig (only 2pts gap)
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonBorussia Dortmund -1Estimated chance48%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H history is emphatically high-scoring, Dortmund's home games average over 3 goals, and Freiburg's leaky away defense (1.87 GA/game) creates a strong Over 2.5 environment.
- H2H last 5 meetings averaged 5.0 total goals (16-4, 3-0, 4-0, 4-1, 1-1)
- Dortmund home: 33GF + 14GA in 15 games = 3.13 total goals/game
- Freiburg away: 16GF + 28GA in 15 games = 2.93 total goals/game
- Dortmund recent 10-match avg: 1.7 GF + 1.5 GA = 3.2 total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's weak away attack (1.07 GF/game) combined with Dortmund's solid home defense and H2H pattern of shutting out Freiburg tilts this slightly toward BTTS No, though it remains close to a coin flip.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings saw only one team score (3-0, 4-0, 4-1 with Freiburg blanked twice)
- Dortmund home: 14 GA in 15 games = 0.93 GA/game, clean sheet capable
- Freiburg away: only 16 goals in 15 away matches (1.07 GF/game)
- Dortmund kept clean sheets vs Freiburg in 2 of last 5 H2H (3-0, 4-0)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance47%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's prolific home scoring (2.2/game), Freiburg's vulnerable away defense, and H2H pattern of Dortmund scoring 3+ in 4 of 5 meetings strongly support Dortmund Over 1.5 goals.
- Dortmund home: 33 goals in 15 games (2.2 per game)
- Freiburg away: concede 28 goals in 15 away games (1.87 GA/game)
- H2H last 5: Dortmund scored 4, 3, 4, 4, 1 goals (avg 3.2)
- Dortmund recent home wins: 3-2 vs Hamburg, 2-0 vs Augsburg
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBorussia Dortmund over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' respective averages and the explosive H2H scoring history make it extremely unlikely this match produces fewer than 2 goals.
- Only 1 of last 5 H2H had fewer than 3 goals (1-1 draw)
- Dortmund home games average 3.13 total goals
- Freiburg away games average 2.93 total goals
- Dortmund's last 10 matches: 3.2 avg total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's poor away scoring and Dortmund's solid home defense create a reasonable clean sheet chance, but Süle's absence and Freiburg's decent recent form (last 10: 2.1 goals avg) prevent high confidence.
- Dortmund home: 0.93 GA/game in 15 home matches (2025-26)
- Freiburg away: only 1.07 GF/game in 15 away matches
- H2H: Dortmund kept clean sheet in 2 of last 5 meetings (3-0, 4-0)
- Dortmund missing Süle (defender) through injury
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFreiburg not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half averages hover around 1.3-1.4 total goals, and Dortmund's slow starts (trailing at HT in 50% of recent matches) suggest the bulk of goals come in the second half.
- Dortmund first-half goals avg (last 10): 0.5 scored, 0.8 conceded = 1.3 total
- Freiburg first-half goals avg (last 10): 0.9 scored, 0.5 conceded = 1.4 total
- Dortmund leading at HT only 40% of last 10 matches
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had 0-0 or 0-1 at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
When Dortmund dominate at home (likely here given Freiburg's poor away record), they generate 10+ corners as seen vs Hamburg and Augsburg, though Freiburg's relatively low corner count away moderates total expectations.
- Dortmund avg corners (last 10): 4.8; opponent corners: varies with 2-5 range
- Dortmund home vs Hamburg: 11 corners (dominant possession game)
- Dortmund home vs Augsburg: 12 corners (dominant possession game)
- Freiburg avg corners (last 10): 4.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average of 4.8 comfortably exceeds 3.5, and Dortmund's high-stakes CL race context may increase tactical fouling intensity, though lack of referee data limits confidence.
- Dortmund avg yellows (last 10): 2.8 per match
- Freiburg avg yellows (last 10): 2.0 per match
- Combined average: 4.8 yellows per match
- No referee data available to confirm/refine card tendency
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Borussia Dortmund Champions League	30	19	7	4	61-31	64	LLWWW
7	Freiburg	30	12	7	11	44-48	43	WWLWL

Borussia Dortmund4Freiburg0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund

Freiburg

Squad & Injuries

Borussia Dortmund

Freiburg