Ligue 1Full time

Predictions graded

Nice1Le Havre1

HT 0–1Sun 12 Apr 2026, 15:15 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 15–11On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Apr 2026, 01:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Relegation stakes and institutional chaos on both sides (Nice's INEOS turmoil + Puel uncertainty; Le Havre's six-game slump) create a low-scoring, cautious affair.

Back Under 0.5 first-half goals (52% vs 37.5% implied) and draw at half-time (72% vs 47.6% implied) for clearest value; avoid match winner markets where Nice's home advantage is offset by management uncertainty.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The structural home/away edge and H2H psychology both favour Nice -- Le Havre have won just 1 of 13 away games and the home side has won all 5 recent H2H meetings -- but Nice's own severe instability (interim manager, INEOS sale chaos, 4 losses in last 5) limits confidence to LOW.
- Home team has won all 5 of the last H2H meetings between these sides (each home team winning their respective fixture)
- Le Havre's away record is dismal: 1W 3D 9L in 13 away games this season
- Nice have managed 4W 5D 5L at home this season despite overall poor form
- Le Havre have not won any of their last 6 Ligue 1 matches (DLDLL form)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNiceEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's catastrophic away record (1 win in 13) and the strong home-team H2H pattern make a Le Havre away win very unlikely, even accounting for Nice's turmoil; the structural home/away edge dominates here.
- Le Havre have won only 1 of 13 away Ligue 1 matches this season (7.7% away win rate)
- Nice are unbeaten in their last 5 home H2H meetings with Le Havre (per intel report)
- Le Havre's form is DLDLL over last 5, with 0 wins in last 6 Ligue 1 matches
- Despite poor form, Nice have 4W 5D at home this season (64% home non-loss rate)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNice or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows any capacity to lead at half-time -- Nice lead at HT just 10% and Le Havre 0% of the time -- and their minuscule first-half scoring rates virtually guarantee a level scoreline at the break, with motivation/stakes reinforcing caution.
- Nice trail at half-time 70% and lead only 10% of the time over last 10 matches
- Le Havre trail at half-time 50% and lead at half-time 0% over last 10 matches
- Combined first-half goals average is just 0.5 scored by each side per match
- Nice's FH goals scored is 0.2/game; Le Havre's is 0.3/game over last 10
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance72%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The relegation-stakes motivation signal strongly favours caution from both sides, compounded by Le Havre's dreadful away attacking output (0.54 goals/away game) and Nice's own poor home scoring (1.21 goals/home game), making a low-scoring affair the most likely outcome.
- Le Havre average just 0.54 goals per away game this season (7 in 13 away matches), with 1.77 GA per away game
- Nice average 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded at home this season (14 home matches)
- Both teams in relegation battle (Nice 15th, 27 pts; Le Havre 14th, 28 pts) -- survival matches historically suppress goals
- Le Havre have scored 0 first-half goals in their last 5 matches (0.3 FH goals avg over last 10)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's away attacking impotence (0.54 goals/away game, frequently blanked) combined with their low shots-on-target average (2.8/game) suggests they will struggle to find the net, making BTTS No the marginally more likely outcome despite Nice's own defensive frailties.
- Le Havre have scored in only 5 of 13 away matches this season (0.54 goals/away game)
- Le Havre managed 0 shots on target in their away loss to Brest and only 2 SOT vs PSG at home in recent form
- Le Havre's overall shot conversion is very low with just 2.8 SOT average across last 10 matches
- Nice kept a clean sheet vs Angers (2-0) in their most recent win, and Le Havre drew 0-0 with Lyon recently
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' extremely low first-half goal production (Nice 0.2, Le Havre 0.3 per game) and the cautious relegation-battle motivation suggest a goalless or near-goalless opening half is the most probable outcome.
- Nice average just 0.2 first-half goals scored over their last 10 matches
- Le Havre average 0.3 first-half goals scored over their last 10 matches
- Le Havre have led at half-time in 0% of their last 10 matches; Nice lead at HT only 10%
- Combined first-half goal output for both teams is 0.5 goals per match average (last 10 each)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's abysmal away goal record (blanked in 8 of 13 away matches) and low shot quality (2.8 SOT avg) make a shutout the single most likely outcome for their goal total, reinforced by the injuries to attacker Mambimbi and questionable Soumare.
- Le Havre have scored in only 5 of 13 away games this season (61.5% blanked away)
- Le Havre average 0.54 goals per away match (7 goals in 13 away games)
- Le Havre's SOT average is just 2.8 across last 10 matches, dropping further in away games
- Le Havre failed to score in 3 of their 5 most recent matches shown (0 vs Lyon, 0 vs Brest, 0 vs PSG)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLe Havre under 0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nice's defensive fragility (1.79 goals conceded per home game) worsened by the absence of multiple defenders (Bombito, Dante, Abdelmonem) and a suspended midfielder suggests they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet, though Le Havre's away impotence introduces genuine uncertainty, hence LOW confidence.
- Nice have conceded in every one of their last 5 matches shown (3, 4, 0, 4, 1 goals conceded)
- Nice have conceded 25 goals in 14 home matches this season (1.79 GA/home game)
- H2H shows Le Havre scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings (3-1, 1-3, 1-2, 0-1, 3-1)
- Nice are missing defenders Bombito, Dante, and Abdelmonem plus suspended midfielder Ndayishimiye
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLe Havre to scoreEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's low corner generation (4.2 avg) and cautious away approach combined with Nice's moderate corner output (6.0 avg) project a total corner count around 8-9, fitting under 9.5; the tactical matchup of two struggling sides favours limited final-third entries.
- Le Havre average 4.2 corners per match over their last 10, while conceding variable amounts
- Nice average 6.0 corners per match over last 10, but opponents average around 5 corners against them
- In Le Havre's away matches the corner counts have been low: 5, 5, 2, 3, 3 in their last 5 shown
- Relegation six-pointers tend to be cagey affairs with fewer attacking sequences
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high foul rates for both teams (12.5 and 11.9 per game) and the intensity of a relegation six-pointer with high stakes create conditions for frequent bookings, with a combined 3.7 yellows average already near the line before accounting for the elevated tension.
- Nice average 2.0 yellow cards per match and 0.5 red cards over last 10 matches
- Le Havre average 1.7 yellow cards per match and 0.5 red cards over last 10 matches
- Combined yellow card average is 3.7 per match plus 1.0 combined red cards per match
- Nice commit 12.5 fouls/game and Le Havre 11.9 fouls/game (last 10) -- both foul-heavy
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L3-1Le HavrevNiceAug 31, 2025L1

W1-3Le HavrevNiceFeb 16, 2025L1

W2-1NicevLe HavreDec 7, 2024L1

W1-0NicevLe HavreMay 10, 2024L1

L3-1Le HavrevNiceDec 16, 2023L1

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Nice	28	7	6	15	33-55	27	LLWLL
14	Le Havre	28	6	10	12	23-36	28	DLDLL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Nice

L1-3StrasbourgApr 4L1

L0-4Paris Saint GermainMar 21L1

W2-0AngersMar 14L1

L0-4RennesMar 8L1

L0-1Paris FCMar 1L1

D3-3LorientFeb 22L1

L0-2LyonFeb 15L1

D0-0MonacoFeb 8L1

W3-2MontpellierFeb 4CDF

D2-2Stade Brestois 29Feb 1L1

Le Havre

D1-1AuxerreApr 5L1

L2-3Paris FCMar 22L1

D0-0LyonMar 15L1

L0-2Stade Brestois 29Mar 8L1

L0-1Paris Saint GermainFeb 28L1

L0-2NantesFeb 22L1

W2-1ToulouseFeb 15L1

W2-1StrasbourgFeb 8L1

L0-1LensJan 30L1

D0-0MonacoJan 24L1

Squad & Injuries

Nice

12 out

Attackers10

Midfielders4/12

×#55

×#41

×#55

×#41

Defenders6/12

×#64

×#4

×#37

×#64

×#4

×#37

Goalkeeper4

M. Abdelmonem — Lacking Match Fitness

#64 M. Bombito — Leg Injury

#4 Dante — Injury

#55 Y. Ndayishimiye — Red Card

#41 E. Pereira — Ankle Injury

#37 K. Peprah — Injury

M. Abdelmonem — Lacking Match Fitness

#64 M. Bombito — Leg Injury

#4 Dante — Injury

#55 Y. Ndayishimiye — Red Card

#41 E. Pereira — Ankle Injury

#37 K. Peprah — Injury

Le Havre

6 out

Attackers4/10

×#10

×#45

×#10

×#45

Midfielders2/11

×#94

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

#10 F. Mambimbi — Injury

#94 A. Toure — Knee Injury

#45 I. Soumare — Injury

#10 F. Mambimbi — Injury

#94 A. Toure — Knee Injury

#45 I. Soumare — Injury

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5

Under 0.5

Draw

Under 9.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Nice

Le Havre

Squad & Injuries

Nice

Le Havre