Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Cagliari1Cremonese0

HT 0–0Sat 11 Apr 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges0–20%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 17–5On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Apr 2026, 00:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Cagliari's unbeaten H2H dominance (4-0), manager contract survival pressure, and Cremonese's 4-month winless streak plus 5-player absence favour first-half props over match winner: First-half Draw @ 1.95 (58% vs 51%) and Cards Over 4.5 @ 2.40 (70% vs 42%) offer edge; full-match market prices Cagliari fairly without value.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cagliari's acute relegation survival motivation (coach Pisacane's contract renewal tied to staying up), the severe tactical damage of Cremonese losing their entire midfield core and both strikers, and Cremonese's four-month winless run all favour the home side despite Cagliari's own LLLLD form.
- Cagliari home record: 4W 4D 7L, 16 GF / 18 GA in 15 home matches this season
- Cremonese away record: 4W 3D 9L, 13 GF / 23 GA in 16 away matches this season
- Cremonese winless since 7 December 2025 (over 4 months), collecting only 3 points from draws
- Cremonese missing 5 players: 3 midfielders (Collocolo, Maleh suspended, Thorsby) and 2 forwards (Moumbagna, Vardy)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCagliariEstimated chance47%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cremonese's 25% away win rate across the season, combined with a four-month winless drought and the loss of five key players spanning both creative and finishing departments, makes an away victory an extreme outlier outcome.
- Cremonese have won only 4 of 16 away matches this season (25% away win rate)
- Cremonese winless in all competitions since 7 December 2025
- H2H: Cagliari unbeaten in last 3 meetings (2-2 draw Jan 2026, 1-0 Coppa Italia Sep 2024, 1-0 Coppa Italia Oct 2020)
- Cremonese missing 5 key players across midfield and attack, including red-card suspension for Maleh
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCagliari or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cremonese's absolute zero first-half goal output in 5 matches combined with Cagliari scoring in the first half less than half the time points strongly to a deadlocked first 45 minutes, amplified by the tactical conservatism typical of relegation deciders.
- Cremonese scored 0 first-half goals in last 5 matches and led at half-time 0% of the time
- Cagliari led at half-time in only 30% of last 5 matches, with 0.4 first-half goals average
- Both teams' combined first-half goal output: 0.4 (Cagliari) + 0.0 (Cremonese) = 0.4 per match
- Relegation-level matches produce conservative first-half approaches when stakes are this high
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance58%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor attacking form with a combined recent average of 1.6 goals per match, and Cremonese losing both main strikers to injury further depresses the expected goal total in what should be a cagey relegation encounter.
- Cremonese average 0.6 goals scored per match across last 5 league games
- Cagliari average 1.0 goals scored per match across last 5 league games
- Cagliari home matches average 2.27 total goals per game (16 GF + 18 GA in 15 home matches)
- Cremonese missing both primary attacking options (Vardy, Moumbagna) to muscle injuries
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cremonese's already weak away scoring rate of 0.81 per game is severely compromised by losing both strikers and the entire creative midfield core (Collocolo, Maleh, Thorsby), making a blank a genuinely likely outcome.
- Cremonese scored 0 goals in 2 of last 5 matches (0-2 vs AC Milan at home, context of low away output)
- Cremonese away scoring: 13 goals in 16 away matches this season (0.81 per away game)
- Cremonese missing both forwards (Vardy, Moumbagna) and 3 midfielders who supply creative service
- Cremonese average 0.6 goals per match in last 5 with 0 first-half goals in all 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cremonese's complete first-half goal drought across 5 matches and Cagliari's low 0.4 first-half scoring rate, combined with the cautious opening expected in a relegation six-pointer, give a meaningful chance of a goalless first period.
- Cremonese have scored 0 first-half goals in their last 5 matches (0.0 average)
- Cagliari average only 0.4 first-half goals scored across last 5 matches
- Cagliari concede only 0.4 first-half goals per match across last 5
- Combined first-half goal expectancy from recent form: approximately 0.4 total first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Cagliari concede regularly at home (18 GA in 15 home games), Cremonese's gutted attack -- both strikers out plus three midfielders -- and their 0.81 away goals per game rate give a reasonable path to a home clean sheet, though not the primary expectation.
- Cremonese away scoring: 13 goals in 16 away matches this season (0.81 per game)
- Cremonese missing both primary strikers (Vardy, Moumbagna) and 3 creative midfielders
- Cremonese failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches even with a fuller squad available
- H2H: Cremonese scored 0 in 2 of 3 meetings (both Coppa Italia fixtures, 0-1 results)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCremonese not to scoreEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined impact of Cremonese's season-long away goal struggles and losing both primary forwards plus three midfielders creates a plausible scenario for a Cremonese shutout, though their season-long 0.81 away goals per game prevents higher confidence.
- Cremonese average 0.6 goals per match across last 5 league games
- Cremonese away: 13 goals in 16 away matches this season (0.81 per game)
- Both main strikers (Vardy and Moumbagna) ruled out with muscle injuries
- Cremonese scored 0 first-half goals in last 5 matches, showing systematic attacking breakdown
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCremonese under 0.5Estimated chance37%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
An extraordinarily high combined foul rate of 28.5 per game, both teams' elevated card averages totalling 4.6 yellows plus frequent reds, and the heightened physicality inherent to a relegation six-pointer all create conditions strongly favourable to exceeding 4.5 cards.
- Cagliari average 2.6 yellow cards and 0.7 red cards per match in last 5 games
- Cremonese average 2.0 yellow cards and 1.0 red cards per match in last 5 games
- Combined foul average: 28.5 per match (Cagliari 13.2 + Cremonese 15.3)
- Cremonese committed 27 fouls in a single match vs Lecce; Cagliari had 4 yellows + 1 red vs Pisa
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate low corner counts with a combined average around 6.7, and their moderate-to-low possession figures indicate neither side sustains the territorial dominance needed to force high corner tallies.
- Cagliari average 3.5 corners won per match in last 5 games
- Cremonese average 3.2 corners won per match in last 5 games
- Combined corner total from recent form: approximately 6.7 corners per match for both teams
- Neither team averages above 50% possession (Cagliari 48.2%, Cremonese 44.6%), limiting sustained attacking pressure
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams maintain reasonable shot volumes (combined 20.5 average) despite poor conversion rates, and relegation urgency should push both sides to commit numbers forward, though Cremonese's depleted midfield and attack could slightly suppress their shot generation.
- Cagliari average 9.9 total shots per match in last 5 games
- Cremonese average 10.6 total shots per match in last 5 games
- Combined shot average: 20.5 per match across both teams' recent form
- Cremonese recorded 15 shots vs AC Milan and 13 vs Fiorentina despite losing both matches
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 19.5Estimated chance51%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

D2-2CremonesevCagliariJan 8, 2026SA

W1-0CagliarivCremoneseSep 24, 2024CI

W1-0CagliarivCremoneseOct 28, 2020CI

Cagliari unbeaten in 3 meetingsCagliari: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Cagliari	31	7	9	15	32-44	30	LLLLD
17	Cremonese	31	6	9	16	26-46	27	LWLLL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Cagliari

L1-2SassuoloApr 4SA

L0-1NapoliMar 20SA

L1-3PisaMar 15SA

L1-2ComoMar 7SA

D1-1ParmaFeb 27SA

D0-0LazioFeb 21SA

L0-2LecceFeb 16SA

L0-2AS RomaFeb 9SA

W4-0Hellas VeronaJan 31SA

W2-1FiorentinaJan 24SA

Cremonese

L1-2BolognaApr 5SA

W2-0ParmaMar 21SA

L1-4FiorentinaMar 16SA

L1-2LecceMar 8SA

L0-2AC MilanMar 1SA

L0-3AS RomaFeb 22SA

D0-0GenoaFeb 15SA

L1-2AtalantaFeb 9SA

L0-2InterFeb 1SA

L0-1SassuoloJan 25SA

Squad & Injuries

Cagliari

6 out

Attackers2/8

×#30

Midfielders2/13

×#17

Defenders2/8

×#3

Goalkeeper4

#17 M. Felici — Knee Injury

#3 R. Idrissi — Knee Injury

#30 L. Pavoletti — Injury

#17 M. Felici — Knee Injury

#3 R. Idrissi — Knee Injury

#30 L. Pavoletti — Injury

Cremonese

10 out

Attackers4/7

×#14

×#10

×#14

×#10

Midfielders6/8

×#18

×#29

×#2

×#18

×#29

×#2

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

#18 M. Collocolo — Injury

#29 Y. Maleh — Red Card

#14 F. Moumbagna — Muscle Injury

#2 M. Thorsby — Injury

#10 J. Vardy — Muscle Injury

#18 M. Collocolo — Injury

#29 Y. Maleh — Red Card

#14 F. Moumbagna — Muscle Injury

#2 M. Thorsby — Injury

#10 J. Vardy — Muscle Injury

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cagliari

Cremonese

Squad & Injuries

Cagliari

Cremonese