Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Udinese0Como0

HT 0–0Mon 6 Apr 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges1–0100%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Apr 2026, 16:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Como's 7-match unbeaten form, 4th-place table position, and decisive H2H reversal against a depleted Udinese side (missing 4 key players, weak home record) establish them as statistical favourites.

The double-chance market (Draw or Como @ 1.40) aligns with 72% estimated probability, offering modest value over match-winner pricing which shows severe market variance.

Context

Como WWWWW last 5 with 12 goals scored and 2 conceded
- 4th place with 57 pts vs Udinese 11th with 39 pts
Buksa and Davis absent from attack
- Zanoli and Zemura absent from defence
- 4 absences across multiple positions weakens both ends
Como won last 2 H2H encounters
- Udinese previously 7W-3D in 10 home Serie A meetings vs Como

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Como's vastly superior current form, Champions League-chasing motivation, and Udinese's poor home record (5W-6L) combine to make the away side slight favourites despite the historical difficulty of winning at Udine.
- Como 4th (57 pts) vs Udinese 11th (39 pts), an 18-point gap in the Serie A table (2025-26 season, 30 matches played)
- Como on a 5-match winning streak (WWWWW) with 12 goals scored and 2 conceded in that span; Udinese form is WLDWL over same period
- Como away record: 7W-4D-3L with 22 GF / 11 GA (1.57 goals per away game conceded); Udinese home record: 5W-4D-6L with 16 GF / 19 GA
- Como average 14.3 shots and 5.1 SOT per match vs Udinese's 9.0 shots and 3.3 SOT -- a significant output gap
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostComoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Udinese's subpar home record and significant injury absences across multiple positions, combined with Como's exceptional form and strong away record, make it highly likely Como avoid defeat.
- Udinese have lost 6 of 15 home league matches this season, winning only 5 -- one of the weaker home records in Serie A
- Como unbeaten in 7 matches (5W-2D) including a 0-0 draw away at Inter in the Coppa Italia
- Como's away record (7W-4D-3L) shows they lose fewer than 1 in 5 away games this season
- Udinese missing 2 attackers (Buksa, Davis) and 2 defenders (Zanoli, Zemura) weakens both ends of the pitch
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or ComoEstimated chance72%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Como's prolific attacking output (1.9 goals/match, 14.3 shots/match) against a Udinese side that concedes 1.0 per game and is missing key defenders suggests enough attacking threat to clear 2.5 goals, though Udinese's low-possession counter-attacking style can also suppress games.
- Como average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match (last 10); combined expected goals in match approximately 3.2 when added to Udinese's 1.3 GF / 1.0 GA averages
- 6 of Como's last 10 matches produced 3+ total goals (5-0, 2-1, 2-1, 3-1 among recent results)
- Udinese last 5: 2-0, 0-1, 2-2, 3-0, 0-1 -- 2 of 5 saw 3+ total goals
- H2H recent: Como 4-1 Udinese (Jan 2025) was high-scoring; Udinese 1-0 Como (Sep 2024) was tight
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Como are virtually certain to score given their form and shot volume, while Udinese typically find the net at home despite limited possession -- the combination supports both teams scoring, albeit with moderate confidence given Udinese blanked in 2 of last 5.
- Udinese scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (2, 0, 2, 3, 0) and average 1.3 goals per game over last 10
- Como conceded in 3 of their last 5 league matches (1 vs Roma, 1 vs Cagliari, 1 vs Lecce)
- Udinese's home goals: 16 in 15 home games (1.07/game) show they usually contribute at least one goal
- Como scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 goals in that stretch
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Como's attacking potency (1.9 goals/game), their strong recent scoring run (12 goals in last 5), and Udinese's defensive weaknesses compounded by two missing defenders make 2+ Como goals a likely outcome.
- Como average 1.9 goals per match across last 10; their away record shows 22 goals in 14 away games (1.57/game)
- Como scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (5-0, 2-1, 2-1, 3-1) with only the Inter cup match (0-0) being an exception
- Udinese concede 1.27 goals per home game (19 GA in 15 home matches) and are missing defenders Zanoli and Zemura
- In H2H, Como scored 4 goals vs Udinese in Jan 2025 and 1 in Jan 2026
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostComo over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Como have been defensively strong (0.7 GA/game average), Udinese's ability to score on the counter against high-possession teams -- as demonstrated against Atalanta (2 goals) and Fiorentina (3 goals) -- suggests they will likely breach Como's defence at least once.
- Como conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches despite strong form (1 vs Roma, 1 vs Cagliari, 1 vs Lecce)
- Udinese scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (2, 0, 2, 3, 0) and have 16 home goals in 15 home games this season
- Udinese's counter-attacking style (42.2% average possession) can be effective on the break against possession-dominant sides
- Udinese scored 2 goals at 32% possession vs Atalanta and 3 goals at 35% possession vs Fiorentina in recent matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostUdinese to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal averages of 1.3 sit below the 1.5 line, and Udinese's low-block style tends to keep first halves tight even when the overall match produces goals, giving a slight edge to under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Udinese average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded (last 10 matches)
- Como average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded (last 10 matches)
- Combined first-half goal expectation: approximately 1.3 goals before half-time based on recent averages
- Udinese were level at half-time in 50% of recent matches (30% leading, 20% trailing)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest roughly 9 corners per match, and Como's dominant possession style (61.3%) tends to suppress opposition corners, keeping the total comfortably below 10.5 in most scenarios.
- Udinese average 3.9 corners per match (last 10) and concede approximately 6.0 opponent corners per match
- Como average 5.1 corners per match (last 10) with opponents averaging roughly 1.2 corners against them in recent matches
- Combined corner average: Udinese corners (3.9) + Como corners (5.1) = 9.0 corners per match expected
- In Udinese's last 5 matches, total corners ranged from 8 to 14 but centred around 8-11
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Como's high-volume shooting approach (14.3/game) combined with Udinese's own contribution (9.0/game) puts the expected combined total at 23+ shots, making over 22.5 a high-probability outcome.
- Como average 14.3 total shots per match over the last 10 games
- Udinese average 9.0 total shots per match over the last 10 games
- Combined average: 23.3 shots per match, above the 22.5 line
- In Udinese's last 5 matches, opponent shots ranged from 10 to 22 -- Como's volume should push the total comfortably over
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined average of 4.3 yellows per match driven by high foul counts from both sides (27.7 combined fouls/game), the tactical fouling Udinese need to disrupt Como's possession play should push the card count above 3.5.
- Udinese average 2.2 yellow cards per match and commit 14.5 fouls per match (last 10)
- Como average 2.1 yellow cards per match and commit 13.2 fouls per match (last 10)
- Combined yellow card average: 4.3 per match, comfortably above the 3.5 line
- Both teams play physical styles -- Udinese's low-block requires tactical fouling, while Como's recent matches show high foul counts (16 vs Roma, 18 vs Cagliari)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 2W

L1-0ComovUdineseJan 3, 2026SA

L4-1ComovUdineseJan 20, 2025SA

W1-0UdinesevComoSep 1, 2024SA

2.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Udinese	30	11	6	13	35-42	39	WLDWL
4	Como Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	30	16	9	5	53-22	57	WWWWW

18pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Udinese

W2-0GenoaMar 20SA

L0-1JuventusMar 14SA

D2-2AtalantaMar 7SA

W3-0FiorentinaMar 2SA

L0-1BolognaFeb 23SA

L1-2SassuoloFeb 15SA

L1-2LecceFeb 8SA

W1-0AS RomaFeb 2SA

W3-1Hellas VeronaJan 26SA

L0-1InterJan 17SA

Como

W5-0PisaMar 22SA

W2-1AS RomaMar 15SA

W2-1CagliariMar 7SA

D0-0InterMar 3CI

W3-1LecceFeb 28SA

W2-0JuventusFeb 21SA

D1-1AC MilanFeb 18SA

L1-2FiorentinaFeb 14SA

D0-0AtalantaFeb 1SA

W3-1FiorentinaJan 27CI

Squad & Injuries

Udinese

8 out

Attackers4/4

×#18

×#9

×#18

×#9

Midfielders10

Defenders4/8

×#59

×#33

×#59

×#33

Goalkeeper4

#18 A. Buksa — Calf Injury

#9 K. Davis — Yellow Cards

#59 A. Zanoli — Knee Injury

#33 J. Zemura — Muscle Injury

#18 A. Buksa — Calf Injury

#9 K. Davis — Yellow Cards

#59 A. Zanoli — Knee Injury

#33 J. Zemura — Muscle Injury

Como

6 out

Attackers2/7

×#42

Midfielders2/8

×#17

Defenders2/10

×#14

Goalkeeper4

#42 J. Addai — Achilles Tendon Injury

#14 J. Ramon — Muscle Injury

#17 J. Rodriguez — Knee Injury

#42 J. Addai — Achilles Tendon Injury

#14 J. Ramon — Muscle Injury

#17 J. Rodriguez — Knee Injury