Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimeUncertainty band: Lean
Atlanta Hawks
fair 1.64
BetBugs 61% · Market 62.9%
−1.9ppshort
Atlanta has scored 114 or more in four of six games and owns the stronger recent scoring profile.
NBAUpcoming
New Orleans PelicansAtlanta Hawks
10Probabilities1Priced2Edges61%Strongest
LeanSlight leanQuick Take
Read first
Atlanta has the stronger recent scoring case for the full-game result, but New Orleans' habit of close games keeps a small Pelicans cushion live.
The main swing factor is a Pelicans rotation missing Missi and Poole, with Murray only expected back.
Context
Atlanta leans on steadier scoring around Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson, while New Orleans must cover Missi's and Poole's absences with Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III carrying more and Dejounte Murray only expected back; Landale's reported availability offsets Atlanta's own frontcourt losses.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimeUncertainty band: Slight lean
New Orleans Pelicans +4.5
fair 1.89
BetBugs 53% · Market 53.5%
−0.5ppshort
New Orleans' 1-, 3- and 6-point games in its recent stretch make a 4.5-point cushion live.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.
Result3 outcomes · top 61%
Points7 outcomes · top 57%
League table
NBA · 2026–27 regular seasonCurrent 2026–27 regular-season record and conference position.
- New Orleans PelicansWestern Conference · #140–4
- Atlanta HawksEastern Conference · #72–3
Recent Form
New Orleans Pelicans
8W 16L · last 24W
vs Sacramento Kings132–120 REG
vs Sacramento Kings132–120 REGL
vs Denver Nuggets91–104 REG
vs Denver Nuggets91–104 REGLat Denver Nuggets135–141 OTREG
at Denver Nuggets135–141 OTREGL
at Utah Jazz119–120 REG
at Utah Jazz119–120 REGL
vs Indiana Pacers120–123 REG
vs Indiana Pacers120–123 REGW
vs Washington Wizards107–106 PRE
vs Washington Wizards107–106 PREW
at Dallas Mavericks101–97 PRE
at Dallas Mavericks101–97 PREL
at Miami Heat118–128 PRE
at Miami Heat118–128 PREW
at Oklahoma City Thunder116–110 PRE
at Oklahoma City Thunder116–110 PREL
at Minnesota Timberwolves126–132 REG
at Minnesota Timberwolves126–132 REGL
at Boston Celtics118–144 REG
at Boston Celtics118–144 REGWvs Utah Jazz156–137 REG
vs Utah Jazz156–137 REGL
vs Orlando Magic108–112 REG
vs Orlando Magic108–112 REGLat Sacramento Kings113–117 REG
at Sacramento Kings113–117 REGL
at Portland Trail Blazers106–118 REG
at Portland Trail Blazers106–118 REGL
vs Houston Rockets102–134 REG
vs Houston Rockets102–134 REGL
at Toronto Raptors106–119 REG
at Toronto Raptors106–119 REGL
at Detroit Pistons108–129 REG
at Detroit Pistons108–129 REGL
at New York Knicks116–121 REG
at New York Knicks116–121 REGL
vs Cleveland Cavaliers106–111 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers106–111 REGW.svg)
vs LA Clippers105–99 REG
vs LA Clippers105–99 REGWvs LA Clippers124–109 REG
vs LA Clippers124–109 REGWvs Dallas Mavericks129–111 REG
vs Dallas Mavericks129–111 REGLat Houston Rockets105–107 REG
at Houston Rockets105–107 REGAtlanta Hawks
16W 9L · last 25Wvs Cleveland Cavaliers114–111 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers114–111 REGLvs Miami Heat117–129 REG
vs Miami Heat117–129 REGLat Houston Rockets110–120 REG
at Houston Rockets110–120 REGLvs Houston Rockets114–121 REG
vs Houston Rockets114–121 REGW.svg)
at Charlotte Hornets128–81 REG
at Charlotte Hornets128–81 REGWat Orlando Magic132–125 REG
at Orlando Magic132–125 REGWat Dallas Mavericks135–111 PRE
at Dallas Mavericks135–111 PREWvs Oklahoma City Thunder113–110 PRE
vs Oklahoma City Thunder113–110 PREWat Indiana Pacers119–117 PRE
at Indiana Pacers119–117 PREW
at San Antonio Spurs123–116 PRE
at San Antonio Spurs123–116 PREL
vs Memphis Grizzlies123–132 PRE
vs Memphis Grizzlies123–132 PRELat Miami Heat117–143 REG
at Miami Heat117–143 REGWvs Cleveland Cavaliers124–102 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers124–102 REGLat Cleveland Cavaliers116–122 REG
at Cleveland Cavaliers116–122 REGLvs New York Knicks105–108 REG
vs New York Knicks105–108 REGW
at Brooklyn Nets141–107 REG
at Brooklyn Nets141–107 REGWat Orlando Magic130–101 REG
at Orlando Magic130–101 REGWvs Boston Celtics112–102 REG
vs Boston Celtics112–102 REGWvs Sacramento Kings123–113 REG
vs Sacramento Kings123–113 REGLat Boston Celtics102–109 REG
at Boston Celtics102–109 REGWat Detroit Pistons130–129 OTREG
at Detroit Pistons130–129 OTREGWvs Memphis Grizzlies146–107 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies146–107 REGW
vs Golden State Warriors126–110 REG
vs Golden State Warriors126–110 REGLat Houston Rockets95–117 REG
at Houston Rockets95–117 REGWat Dallas Mavericks135–120 REG
at Dallas Mavericks135–120 REGStat Battle
Last 15 games · all competitions
New Orleans Pelicans
24 games
Stats
0–5
Atlanta Hawks
25 games
Atlanta Hawks leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.
Shooting· 0–3
2-point %+1.8pp
53.6%
+1.8pp55.4%
3-point %+3.2pp
33.9%
+3.2pp37.1%
Free-throw %+0.2pp
76.7%
+0.2pp76.9%
Scoring mix· style, not ranked
Points from 3s11.0pp apart
28.0%
11.0pp apart39.0%
Free throws per shot7.4pp apart
30.8%
7.4pp apart23.4%
Possession· 0–2
Rebounds per game+0.3
44.2
+0.344.5
Turnovers per game1.4 fewer
15.2
1.4 fewer13.8
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.