Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Lean
Under 237.5
fair 1.56
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 64%
+11.6ppedge
Most recent Pacers and 76ers totals are below 237.5, including 212, 226, 220 and 199.
NBAFinished
Predictions gradedIndiana Pacers109Philadelphia 76ers114
Predictions21–872%
Edges3–175%
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 25 | 27 | 36 | 21 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 25 | 37 | 13 | 39 |
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Philadelphia owns the better form-and-scoring case, but Indiana’s home scoring and unresolved rotation questions keep the matchup from being one-sided.
Player forecasts are missing, so the main uncertainty sits in team rotation and late availability rather than in the normal-game evidence.
Context
Indiana’s frontcourt is thinned by Zubac’s reported absence and its backcourt by Haliburton and Nembhard’s uncertain status, while Philadelphia’s reported removal of Embiid from the injury report could tilt the interior matchup.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Lean
Philadelphia 76ers
fair 1.61
BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%
−0.5ppshort
Philadelphia's 3-1 start and recent 127-point output give it the stronger overall form, with Embiid's possible return adding interior lift.
Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
fair 1.89
BetBugs 53% · Market 54.6%
−1.6ppshort
Philadelphia has recent wins by 8 and 11 points, supporting a margin above 3.5.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result8 of 11 landed
Points12 of 17 landed
Total points
Full game · overtime included
Price snapshot
Selected line
237.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Under
64%
Chance of 237 points or fewer
+12 pp above break-even
Under 1.91 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 64%.
Over Bookmaker quote
BetBugs –Under Bookmaker quote
BetBugs 64%Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
L94–105
Indiana PacersvPhiladelphia 76ers
Indiana PacersvPhiladelphia 76ers·REG
199Avg total points
11Avg margin
1meetings
League table
NBA · 2026–27 regular seasonCurrent 2026–27 regular-season record and conference position.
- Indiana PacersEastern Conference · #82–2
- Philadelphia 76ersEastern Conference · #23–1
Recent Form
Indiana Pacers
7W 17L · last 24L
at Milwaukee Bucks102–110 REG
at Milwaukee Bucks102–110 REGW
at Brooklyn Nets136–109 REG
at Brooklyn Nets136–109 REGL
vs Dallas Mavericks105–121 REG
vs Dallas Mavericks105–121 REGW
at New Orleans Pelicans123–120 REG
at New Orleans Pelicans123–120 REGLvs Milwaukee Bucks127–128 OTPRE
vs Milwaukee Bucks127–128 OTPREL
at Oklahoma City Thunder112–114 OTPRE
at Oklahoma City Thunder112–114 OTPREL
vs Atlanta Hawks117–119 PRE
vs Atlanta Hawks117–119 PREW
vs Minnesota Timberwolves123–112 PRE
vs Minnesota Timberwolves123–112 PREL
vs Detroit Pistons121–133 REG
vs Detroit Pistons121–133 REGLvs Philadelphia 76ers94–105 REG
vs Philadelphia 76ers94–105 REGWat Brooklyn Nets123–94 REG
at Brooklyn Nets123–94 REGLvs Minnesota Timberwolves104–124 REG
vs Minnesota Timberwolves104–124 REGL
at Cleveland Cavaliers108–117 REG
at Cleveland Cavaliers108–117 REGL.svg)
at Charlotte Hornets108–129 REG
at Charlotte Hornets108–129 REGW
at Chicago Bulls145–126 REG
at Chicago Bulls145–126 REGW
vs Miami Heat135–118 REG
vs Miami Heat135–118 REGL.svg)
vs LA Clippers113–114 REG
vs LA Clippers113–114 REGL
vs Los Angeles Lakers130–137 REG
vs Los Angeles Lakers130–137 REGW
at Orlando Magic128–126 REG
at Orlando Magic128–126 REGL
at San Antonio Spurs119–134 REG
at San Antonio Spurs119–134 REGL
vs Portland Trail Blazers119–127 REG
vs Portland Trail Blazers119–127 REGL
at New York Knicks110–136 REG
at New York Knicks110–136 REGLat Milwaukee Bucks123–134 REG
at Milwaukee Bucks123–134 REGLvs New York Knicks92–101 REG
vs New York Knicks92–101 REGPhiladelphia 76ers
14W 10L · last 24Lvs Detroit Pistons93–106 REG
vs Detroit Pistons93–106 REGWvs Milwaukee Bucks127–116 REG
vs Milwaukee Bucks127–116 REGWvs Cleveland Cavaliers114–106 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers114–106 REGWat New York Knicks106–100 REG
at New York Knicks106–100 REGL
vs Boston Celtics120–125 OTPRE
vs Boston Celtics120–125 OTPRELat Boston Celtics106–144 PRE
at Boston Celtics106–144 PRELat Brooklyn Nets108–114 PRE
at Brooklyn Nets108–114 PREWvs New York Knicks120–97 PRE
vs New York Knicks120–97 PREWvs Orlando Magic109–97 REG
vs Orlando Magic109–97 REGWvs Milwaukee Bucks126–106 REG
vs Milwaukee Bucks126–106 REGWat Indiana Pacers105–94 REG
at Indiana Pacers105–94 REGL
at Houston Rockets102–113 REG
at Houston Rockets102–113 REGLat San Antonio Spurs102–115 REG
at San Antonio Spurs102–115 REGLvs Detroit Pistons93–116 REG
vs Detroit Pistons93–116 REGWvs Minnesota Timberwolves115–103 REG
vs Minnesota Timberwolves115–103 REGW
at Washington Wizards153–131 REG
at Washington Wizards153–131 REGLat Miami Heat109–119 REG
at Miami Heat109–119 REGWat Charlotte Hornets118–114 REG
at Charlotte Hornets118–114 REGWvs Chicago Bulls157–137 REG
vs Chicago Bulls157–137 REGLvs Oklahoma City Thunder103–123 REG
vs Oklahoma City Thunder103–123 REGW
at Utah Jazz126–116 REG
at Utah Jazz126–116 REGW
at Sacramento Kings139–118 REG
at Sacramento Kings139–118 REGL
at Denver Nuggets96–124 REG
at Denver Nuggets96–124 REGWvs Portland Trail Blazers109–103 REG
vs Portland Trail Blazers109–103 REGStat Battle
Last 15 games · all competitions
Indiana Pacers
24 games
Stats
2–3
Philadelphia 76ers
24 games
Philadelphia 76ers leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.
Shooting· 2–1
2-point %+3.8pp
57.2%
+3.8pp53.4%
3-point %+5.4pp
38.6%
+5.4pp33.2%
Free-throw %+1.8pp
78.1%
+1.8pp79.9%
Scoring mix· style, not ranked
Points from 3s7.4pp apart
38.3%
7.4pp apart30.9%
Free throws per shot6.1pp apart
21.6%
6.1pp apart27.7%
Possession· 0–2
Rebounds per game+2.3
42.6
+2.344.9
Turnovers per game2.5 fewer
16.0
2.5 fewer13.5
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.