Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Memphis Grizzlies
fair 1.82
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 55%
+3.7ppedge
Memphis has won its early games and beat Utah by 20 in the same building last week.
NBAFinished
Predictions gradedUtah Jazz105Memphis Grizzlies110
Predictions21–678%
Edges4–0100%
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 21 | 31 | 24 | 29 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 30 | 28 | 31 | 21 |
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Memphis is the side with the stronger team-level evidence, though its first back-to-back and unsettled rotation make Utah a live counterargument.
No player forecasts are supported, so the individual picture remains thinner than the team-level case.
Context
Memphis's early form and Ty Jerome's scoring support the Grizzlies' case, but the first back-to-back plus Zach Edey's ankle management and Karim López's knee issue leave the frontcourt rotation less predictable.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Lean
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5
fair 1.69
Market 53.5% · BetBugs 59%
+5.5ppedge
Memphis's recent edge over Utah makes it likely to win outright or stay within one point.
Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Under 238.5
fair 1.85
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 54%
+2.7ppedge
The recent Utah-Memphis matchup totaled 226, making the under slightly favored at 238.5.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result6 of 8 landed
Points12 of 16 landed
Total points
Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.
Full game · overtime included
Price snapshot
Selected line
238.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Under
54%
Chance of 238 points or fewer
+3 pp above break-even
Under 1.95 needs 51% to break even. BetBugs sees 54%.
Move the line main 238.5
Over Bookmaker quote
BetBugs –Under Bookmaker quote
BetBugs 54%Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
L123–103Memphis Grizzliesv
Utah Jazz
Memphis GrizzliesvUtah Jazz·REG
W147–101Utah JazzvMemphis Grizzlies
Utah JazzvMemphis Grizzlies·REG
237Avg total points
33Avg margin
2meetings
League table
NBA · 2026–27 regular seasonStandings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.
Recent Form
Utah Jazz
6W 18L · last 24L
vs Los Angeles Lakers123–132 REG
vs Los Angeles Lakers123–132 REGW
vs New Orleans Pelicans120–119 REG
vs New Orleans Pelicans120–119 REGLat Memphis Grizzlies103–123 REG
at Memphis Grizzlies103–123 REGW
at Phoenix Suns119–116 PRE
at Phoenix Suns119–116 PREW
vs San Antonio Spurs119–109 PRE
vs San Antonio Spurs119–109 PREL
vs Denver Nuggets106–117 PRE
vs Denver Nuggets106–117 PREWat Denver Nuggets109–97 PRE
at Denver Nuggets109–97 PRELat Los Angeles Lakers107–131 REG
at Los Angeles Lakers107–131 REGWvs Memphis Grizzlies147–101 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies147–101 REGLat New Orleans Pelicans137–156 REG
at New Orleans Pelicans137–156 REGL
at Oklahoma City Thunder111–146 REG
at Oklahoma City Thunder111–146 REGL
at Houston Rockets106–140 REG
at Houston Rockets106–140 REGLvs Denver Nuggets117–130 REG
vs Denver Nuggets117–130 REGL
vs Cleveland Cavaliers113–122 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers113–122 REGLat Phoenix Suns109–134 REG
at Phoenix Suns109–134 REGLat Denver Nuggets129–135 REG
at Denver Nuggets129–135 REGL
vs Washington Wizards110–133 REG
vs Washington Wizards110–133 REGL
vs Toronto Raptors127–143 REG
vs Toronto Raptors127–143 REGL
vs Philadelphia 76ers116–126 REG
vs Philadelphia 76ers116–126 REGW
vs Milwaukee Bucks128–96 REG
vs Milwaukee Bucks128–96 REGL
at Minnesota Timberwolves111–147 REG
at Minnesota Timberwolves111–147 REGL
at Sacramento Kings111–116 REG
at Sacramento Kings111–116 REGL
at Portland Trail Blazers114–124 REG
at Portland Trail Blazers114–124 REGL
vs New York Knicks117–134 REG
vs New York Knicks117–134 REGMemphis Grizzlies
7W 17L · last 24W
at Golden State Warriors111–108 REG
at Golden State Warriors111–108 REGWvs Utah Jazz123–103 REG
vs Utah Jazz123–103 REGW.svg)
vs Charlotte Hornets116–98 PRE
vs Charlotte Hornets116–98 PREW
at Chicago Bulls104–100 PRE
at Chicago Bulls104–100 PREL
vs Orlando Magic118–122 PRE
vs Orlando Magic118–122 PREW
at Atlanta Hawks132–123 PRE
at Atlanta Hawks132–123 PRELat Houston Rockets101–132 REG
at Houston Rockets101–132 REGLat Utah Jazz101–147 REG
at Utah Jazz101–147 REGLat Denver Nuggets119–136 REG
at Denver Nuggets119–136 REGLvs Cleveland Cavaliers126–142 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers126–142 REGLat Milwaukee Bucks115–131 REG
at Milwaukee Bucks115–131 REGLvs Toronto Raptors96–128 REG
vs Toronto Raptors96–128 REGLvs New York Knicks119–130 REG
vs New York Knicks119–130 REGLvs Phoenix Suns105–131 REG
vs Phoenix Suns105–131 REGWvs Chicago Bulls125–124 REG
vs Chicago Bulls125–124 REGLvs Houston Rockets109–119 REG
vs Houston Rockets109–119 REGLvs San Antonio Spurs98–123 REG
vs San Antonio Spurs98–123 REGLat Atlanta Hawks107–146 REG
at Atlanta Hawks107–146 REGLat Charlotte Hornets101–124 REG
at Charlotte Hornets101–124 REGL
vs Boston Celtics112–117 REG
vs Boston Celtics112–117 REGWvs Denver Nuggets125–118 REG
vs Denver Nuggets125–118 REGLat Chicago Bulls107–132 REG
at Chicago Bulls107–132 REGL
at Detroit Pistons110–126 REG
at Detroit Pistons110–126 REGL
vs Dallas Mavericks112–120 REG
vs Dallas Mavericks112–120 REGStat Battle
Last 15 games · all competitions
Utah Jazz
24 games
Stats
2–3
Memphis Grizzlies
24 games
Memphis Grizzlies leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.
Shooting· 1–2
2-point %+2.2pp
55.2%
+2.2pp53.0%
3-point %+0.5pp
34.5%
+0.5pp35.0%
Free-throw %+5.8pp
73.4%
+5.8pp79.2%
Scoring mix· style, not ranked
Points from 3s9.7pp apart
30.2%
9.7pp apart39.9%
Free throws per shot1.8pp apart
27.1%
1.8pp apart25.3%
Possession· 1–1
Rebounds per game+5.6
43.7
+5.638.1
Turnovers per game0.3 fewer
15.8
0.3 fewer15.5
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.