Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Atlanta Hawks +5.5
fair 1.85
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 54%
+1.6ppedge
Atlanta's 128- and 132-point wins show it can stay within five or win outright.
NBAFinished
Predictions gradedHouston Rockets120Atlanta Hawks110
Predictions15–1354%
Edges2–250%
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 32 | 31 | 28 | 29 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 35 | 31 | 19 | 25 |
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Houston has the stronger full-game case through recent scoring and the head-to-head win, but Atlanta's high-scoring offense and creation keep the rematch open; no player forecasts are supported, leaving rotation risk.
Context
Houston's balanced scoring and recent win over Atlanta support the home side, while Jalen Johnson gives Atlanta a major creation threat; reported frontcourt absences add uncertainty to Atlanta's rotation.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Over 229.5
fair 1.82
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 55%
+3.7ppedge
The 235-point prior meeting and Houston's 238-point game support clearing 229.5.
Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Over 230.5
fair 1.92
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 52%
+0.7ppedge
The prior meeting's 235 points and Houston's 238-point game put 230.5 within reach.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result5 of 12 landed
Points10 of 16 landed
Total points
Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.
Full game · overtime included
Price snapshot
Selected line
229.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Over
55%
Chance of 230+ points
+4 pp above break-even
Over 1.95 needs 51% to break even. BetBugs sees 55%.
Move the line main 229.5
Over Bookmaker quote
BetBugs 55%Under Bookmaker quote
BetBugs –Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
W114–121Atlanta Hawksv
Houston Rockets
Atlanta HawksvHouston Rockets·REG
W117–95Houston RocketsvAtlanta Hawks
Houston RocketsvAtlanta Hawks·REG
223.5Avg total points
14.5Avg margin
2meetings
League table
NBA · 2026–27 regular seasonStandings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.
Recent Form
Houston Rockets
17W 6L · last 23Wat Atlanta Hawks121–114 REG
at Atlanta Hawks121–114 REGW
at San Antonio Spurs114–110 REG
at San Antonio Spurs114–110 REGW
vs Dallas Mavericks128–110 REG
vs Dallas Mavericks128–110 REGW
vs Oklahoma City Thunder116–89 PRE
vs Oklahoma City Thunder116–89 PRELvs Dallas Mavericks115–132 PRE
vs Dallas Mavericks115–132 PREWat Dallas Mavericks135–117 PRE
at Dallas Mavericks135–117 PREW
vs Memphis Grizzlies132–101 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies132–101 REGL
vs Minnesota Timberwolves132–136 REG
vs Minnesota Timberwolves132–136 REGW
vs Philadelphia 76ers113–102 REG
vs Philadelphia 76ers113–102 REGW
at Phoenix Suns119–105 REG
at Phoenix Suns119–105 REGW
at Golden State Warriors117–116 REG
at Golden State Warriors117–116 REGW
vs Utah Jazz140–106 REG
vs Utah Jazz140–106 REGW
vs Milwaukee Bucks119–113 REG
vs Milwaukee Bucks119–113 REGW
vs New York Knicks111–94 REG
vs New York Knicks111–94 REGW
at New Orleans Pelicans134–102 REG
at New Orleans Pelicans134–102 REGWat Memphis Grizzlies119–109 REG
at Memphis Grizzlies119–109 REGLat Minnesota Timberwolves108–110 OTREG
at Minnesota Timberwolves108–110 OTREGL
at Chicago Bulls124–132 REG
at Chicago Bulls124–132 REGW
vs Miami Heat123–122 REG
vs Miami Heat123–122 REGWvs Atlanta Hawks117–95 REG
vs Atlanta Hawks117–95 REGL
vs Los Angeles Lakers116–124 REG
vs Los Angeles Lakers116–124 REGLvs Los Angeles Lakers92–100 REG
vs Los Angeles Lakers92–100 REGWvs New Orleans Pelicans107–105 REG
vs New Orleans Pelicans107–105 REGAtlanta Hawks
18W 7L · last 25Lvs Houston Rockets114–121 REG
vs Houston Rockets114–121 REGW.svg)
at Charlotte Hornets128–81 REG
at Charlotte Hornets128–81 REGW
at Orlando Magic132–125 REG
at Orlando Magic132–125 REGWat Dallas Mavericks135–111 PRE
at Dallas Mavericks135–111 PREWvs Oklahoma City Thunder113–110 PRE
vs Oklahoma City Thunder113–110 PREW
at Indiana Pacers119–117 PRE
at Indiana Pacers119–117 PREWat San Antonio Spurs123–116 PRE
at San Antonio Spurs123–116 PRELvs Memphis Grizzlies123–132 PRE
vs Memphis Grizzlies123–132 PRELat Miami Heat117–143 REG
at Miami Heat117–143 REGW
vs Cleveland Cavaliers124–102 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers124–102 REGLat Cleveland Cavaliers116–122 REG
at Cleveland Cavaliers116–122 REGLvs New York Knicks105–108 REG
vs New York Knicks105–108 REGW
at Brooklyn Nets141–107 REG
at Brooklyn Nets141–107 REGWat Orlando Magic130–101 REG
at Orlando Magic130–101 REGW
vs Boston Celtics112–102 REG
vs Boston Celtics112–102 REGW
vs Sacramento Kings123–113 REG
vs Sacramento Kings123–113 REGLat Boston Celtics102–109 REG
at Boston Celtics102–109 REGW
at Detroit Pistons130–129 OTREG
at Detroit Pistons130–129 OTREGWvs Memphis Grizzlies146–107 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies146–107 REGWvs Golden State Warriors126–110 REG
vs Golden State Warriors126–110 REGLat Houston Rockets95–117 REG
at Houston Rockets95–117 REGWat Dallas Mavericks135–120 REG
at Dallas Mavericks135–120 REGWvs Orlando Magic124–112 REG
vs Orlando Magic124–112 REGWvs Milwaukee Bucks122–99 REG
vs Milwaukee Bucks122–99 REGWvs Brooklyn Nets108–97 REG
vs Brooklyn Nets108–97 REGStat Battle
Last 15 games · all competitions
Houston Rockets
23 games
Stats
4–1
Atlanta Hawks
25 games
Houston Rockets leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.
Shooting· 3–0
2-point %+1.2pp
56.8%
+1.2pp55.6%
3-point %+0.1pp
37.0%
+0.1pp36.9%
Free-throw %+0.4pp
77.7%
+0.4pp77.3%
Scoring mix· style, not ranked
Points from 3s5.6pp apart
33.0%
5.6pp apart38.6%
Free throws per shot1.3pp apart
26.0%
1.3pp apart24.7%
Possession· 1–1
Rebounds per game+1.8
47.2
+1.845.4
Turnovers per game1.0 fewer
14.8
1.0 fewer13.8
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.