Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimelostUncertainty band: Lean
Chicago Bulls +13.5
fair 1.61
Market 51.3% · BetBugs 62%
+10.7ppedge
Chicago's 132-point output at Milwaukee shows it can keep a large spread within reach.
NBAFinished
Predictions gradedBoston Celtics134Chicago Bulls99
Predictions13–1743%
Edges1–233%
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 33 | 33 | 39 | 29 |
| Chicago Bulls | 21 | 33 | 21 | 24 |
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Boston has the better evidence and the scoring lean at home, but Chicago's high-end scoring and Boston's narrow recent margins keep a Bulls cover live.
No player forecasts are supported, so rotation and availability questions remain open.
Context
Boston's reshaped rotation around Paul George, Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley meets a Chicago frontcourt without Nic Claxton and with Patrick Williams and Noa Essengue uncertain, so interior matchups and bench minutes matter more than the early-season billing; Devin Carter's absence is a minor Boston depth note.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Strong lean
Boston Celtics
fair 1.39
BetBugs 72% · Market 89.3%
−17.3ppshort
Boston's recent home win over New York and stronger scoring profile make it the likelier winner at TD Garden.
Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Over 233.5
fair 1.92
BetBugs 52% · Market 52.4%
−0.4ppshort
Chicago's recent games have produced enough combined scoring to clear this lower total.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result6 of 11 landed
Points6 of 17 landed
Total points
Full game · overtime included
Price snapshot
Selected line
233.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Over
52%
Chance of 234+ points
Near break-even
Over 1.91 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.
Over Bookmaker quote
BetBugs 52%Under Bookmaker quote
BetBugs –Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
League table
NBA · 2026–27 regular seasonStandings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.
Recent Form
Boston Celtics
18W 6L · last 24W
vs New York Knicks107–103 REG
vs New York Knicks107–103 REGL
at Detroit Pistons113–121 REG
at Detroit Pistons113–121 REGW
at Philadelphia 76ers125–120 OTPRE
at Philadelphia 76ers125–120 OTPREW.svg)
vs Charlotte Hornets114–93 PRE
vs Charlotte Hornets114–93 PREWvs Philadelphia 76ers144–106 PRE
vs Philadelphia 76ers144–106 PREW
at Cleveland Cavaliers124–113 PRE
at Cleveland Cavaliers124–113 PREW
vs Orlando Magic113–108 REG
vs Orlando Magic113–108 REGW
vs New Orleans Pelicans144–118 REG
vs New Orleans Pelicans144–118 REGLat New York Knicks106–112 REG
at New York Knicks106–112 REGWvs Charlotte Hornets113–102 REG
vs Charlotte Hornets113–102 REGW
vs Toronto Raptors115–101 REG
vs Toronto Raptors115–101 REGW
at Milwaukee Bucks133–101 REG
at Milwaukee Bucks133–101 REGW
at Miami Heat147–129 REG
at Miami Heat147–129 REGL
at Atlanta Hawks102–112 REG
at Atlanta Hawks102–112 REGWat Charlotte Hornets114–99 REG
at Charlotte Hornets114–99 REGWvs Atlanta Hawks109–102 REG
vs Atlanta Hawks109–102 REGW
vs Oklahoma City Thunder119–109 REG
vs Oklahoma City Thunder119–109 REGL
vs Minnesota Timberwolves92–102 REG
vs Minnesota Timberwolves92–102 REGW
at Memphis Grizzlies117–112 REG
at Memphis Grizzlies117–112 REGW
vs Golden State Warriors120–99 REG
vs Golden State Warriors120–99 REGW
vs Phoenix Suns120–112 REG
vs Phoenix Suns120–112 REGW
vs Washington Wizards111–100 REG
vs Washington Wizards111–100 REGLat Oklahoma City Thunder102–104 REG
at Oklahoma City Thunder102–104 REGL
at San Antonio Spurs116–125 REG
at San Antonio Spurs116–125 REGChicago Bulls
8W 17L · last 25Lvs Washington Wizards120–124 REG
vs Washington Wizards120–124 REGWat Milwaukee Bucks132–125 REG
at Milwaukee Bucks132–125 REGLat Toronto Raptors92–135 REG
at Toronto Raptors92–135 REGWvs Minnesota Timberwolves133–116 PRE
vs Minnesota Timberwolves133–116 PREWat Milwaukee Bucks125–104 PRE
at Milwaukee Bucks125–104 PREL
at Denver Nuggets128–133 PRE
at Denver Nuggets128–133 PRELvs Memphis Grizzlies100–104 PRE
vs Memphis Grizzlies100–104 PREWvs Phoenix Suns124–117 PRE
vs Phoenix Suns124–117 PREL
at Dallas Mavericks128–149 REG
at Dallas Mavericks128–149 REGLvs Orlando Magic103–127 REG
vs Orlando Magic103–127 REGWat Washington Wizards119–108 REG
at Washington Wizards119–108 REGWat Washington Wizards129–98 REG
at Washington Wizards129–98 REGLvs Phoenix Suns110–120 REG
vs Phoenix Suns110–120 REGLat New York Knicks96–136 REG
at New York Knicks96–136 REGL
vs Indiana Pacers126–145 REG
vs Indiana Pacers126–145 REGLat San Antonio Spurs114–129 REG
at San Antonio Spurs114–129 REGLat Memphis Grizzlies124–125 REG
at Memphis Grizzlies124–125 REGLat Oklahoma City Thunder113–131 REG
at Oklahoma City Thunder113–131 REGLat Philadelphia 76ers137–157 REG
at Philadelphia 76ers137–157 REGW
vs Houston Rockets132–124 REG
vs Houston Rockets132–124 REGLvs Cleveland Cavaliers110–115 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers110–115 REGLvs Toronto Raptors109–139 REG
vs Toronto Raptors109–139 REGWvs Memphis Grizzlies132–107 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies132–107 REGL.svg)
at LA Clippers108–119 REG
at LA Clippers108–119 REGL
at Los Angeles Lakers130–142 REG
at Los Angeles Lakers130–142 REGStat Battle
Last 15 games · all competitions
Boston Celtics
24 games
Stats
4–1
Chicago Bulls
25 games
Boston Celtics leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.
Shooting· 2–1
2-point %+2.5pp
55.1%
+2.5pp57.6%
3-point %+5.2pp
37.6%
+5.2pp32.4%
Free-throw %+3.0pp
80.8%
+3.0pp77.8%
Scoring mix· style, not ranked
Points from 3s7.8pp apart
40.5%
7.8pp apart32.7%
Free throws per shot4.7pp apart
24.2%
4.7pp apart28.9%
Possession· 2–0
Rebounds per game+2.1
47.1
+2.145.0
Turnovers per game3.4 fewer
13.7
3.4 fewer17.1
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.