NBAAOT
Predictions graded| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 24 | 33 | 32 | 37 | 15 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 38 | 35 | 35 | 18 | 9 |
Pre-match view
Denver's rest advantage at home makes the Nuggets the better-supported winner, but the more convincing read of the evidence is New Orleans staying within a large handicap, with Denver's short wing rotation the main counterweight.
Denver's home rest edge runs against a Pelicans team on the second night of a back-to-back, but Denver's wing absences around DeRozan and Jokic and Yves Missi's uncertain availability leave both rotations genuinely unsettled.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
New Orleans Pelicans +11.5Market 53.5% · BetBugs 72%
New Orleans' recent scoring and Denver's missing wings make an 11.5-point home blowout unlikely.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Denver NuggetsBetBugs 57% · Market 82.6%
Denver has the fresher legs at home while New Orleans plays the second night of a back-to-back after a one-point loss.
BetBugs 51% · Market 51.8%
Denver's defensive opener and New Orleans' back-to-back travel make the under slightly more likely.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Selected line
239.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Under
51%
Chance of 239 points or fewer
1 pp below break-even
Under 1.93 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 51%.
Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
Current 2026–27 regular-season record and conference position.
Denver NuggetsWestern Conference · #100–1New Orleans PelicansWestern Conference · #80–1
at Oklahoma City Thunder84–96 REG
at Los Angeles Lakers121–106 PRE.svg)
at LA Clippers110–122 PRE
vs Chicago Bulls133–128 PRE
at Utah Jazz117–106 PREvs Utah Jazz97–109 PRE
at San Antonio Spurs128–118 REGvs Oklahoma City Thunder127–107 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies136–119 REG
vs Portland Trail Blazers137–132 OTREGvs San Antonio Spurs136–134 OTREGat Utah Jazz130–117 REG
vs Golden State Warriors116–93 REGvs Utah Jazz135–129 REG
vs Dallas Mavericks142–135 REG
at Phoenix Suns125–123 REGvs Portland Trail Blazers128–112 REG
vs Toronto Raptors121–115 REGat Memphis Grizzlies118–125 REG
vs Philadelphia 76ers124–96 REGat Los Angeles Lakers125–127 OTREGat San Antonio Spurs136–131 REG
vs Houston Rockets129–93 REGat Oklahoma City Thunder126–129 REG
vs New York Knicks103–142 REGat Utah Jazz119–120 REG
vs Indiana Pacers120–123 REG
vs Washington Wizards107–106 PREat Dallas Mavericks101–97 PRE
at Miami Heat118–128 PREat Oklahoma City Thunder116–110 PRE
at Minnesota Timberwolves126–132 REG
at Boston Celtics118–144 REGvs Utah Jazz156–137 REG
vs Orlando Magic108–112 REG
at Sacramento Kings113–117 REGat Portland Trail Blazers106–118 REGvs Houston Rockets102–134 REGat Toronto Raptors106–119 REG
at Detroit Pistons108–129 REGat New York Knicks116–121 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers106–111 REGvs LA Clippers105–99 REGvs LA Clippers124–109 REGvs Dallas Mavericks129–111 REGat Houston Rockets105–107 REGvs Toronto Raptors122–111 REGvs Washington Wizards138–118 REGat Phoenix Suns116–118 REGLast 15 games · all competitions
Denver Nuggets
25 games
Stats
4–1
New Orleans Pelicans
24 games
Denver Nuggets leads in 4 of 5 performance stats.
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.
