NBAFinished

Predictions graded

New York Knicks122Toronto Raptors120

Thu 15 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions gradedMadison Square GardenPreseason

Predictions8–1142%

Points by period: New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
New York Knicks	35	28	24	35
Toronto Raptors	32	26	21	41

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Toronto carries the better recent preseason scoring evidence and the supported forecasts lean its way across the full game, first half and opening three quarters, while the Knicks' best case rests on a handicap cushion and home depth.

No player forecasts are supported, and Toronto's frontcourt depth and availability questions keep the picture unsettled.

Context

Toronto's rotation behind Jakob Poeltl and the availability of Kawhi Leonard are the main swing factors, while New York's established core and contested roster spot shape how heavily the veterans are used.

New York opens the preseason with a settled starting five and a mostly settled bench, leaving effectively one open roster spot. Bruce Brown, John Konchar, James Wiseman, Drew Eubanks and Ochai Agbaji all arrived on nonguaranteed deals to compete for it. Center is the biggest need, giving Wiseman and Eubanks an inside track, while a strong camp from Konchar or Brown could push the front office into a cap-clearing trade, most logically moving Pacôme Dadiet. The outcome shapes New York's frontcourt depth for the Raptors visit, but the winner is undecided and a trade would change the picture.
- Five nonguaranteed contracts create effectively one open roster spot.
- New York must stay under the second apron, limiting it to one addition.
- Center is the position of need, giving James Wiseman and Drew Eubanks an edge.
- Pacôme Dadiet is the most logical salary to move in a cap-clearing trade.
Mike Brown inherits a roster that just won the title and his main job is preventing complacency. He was an associate head coach on Golden State's back-to-back champions in 2017 and 2018, and that experience frames how he manages a veteran group. New York's starters already know their roles and their chemistry is established, so preseason minutes are unlikely to change how they are used. For the Raptors game that points to limited workloads for the veteran core and a longer look at the roster-battle players, though exact minute totals are not fixed.
- Mike Brown won titles as a Golden State assistant in 2017 and 2018.
- New York's starters are expected to play sparingly in the preseason.
- Established roles and chemistry reduce the value of preseason minutes.
Toronto rebuilt its starting lineup around Kawhi Leonard, who is expected to open the regular season in the first five. He sat out the preseason opener against Miami in Quebec City, and Jakob Poeltl started in his place, scoring eight points with two 3-pointers. Collin Murray-Boyles is the other likely replacement when Leonard sits, which would give Toronto a bigger look on the wing and in the frontcourt. Leonard's ability to stay on the floor across 82 games is not assured, so his preseason and early-season availability remains a live question heading into the Knicks matchup.
- Kawhi Leonard is set to start when the regular season begins.
- Leonard sat out the preseason opener against Miami in Quebec City.
- Jakob Poeltl started in his place and scored eight points with two 3-pointers.
Toronto has no one taller than 6-9 on its 15-man roster besides Jakob Poeltl. Rookie Allen Graves and Trayce Jackson-Davis are the tallest internal backup-center candidates, with Collin Murray-Boyles a small-ball five and two-way Trey Jemison another alternative. The closing unit could change nightly around Immanuel, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Poeltl, with Murray-Boyles, Jamal Shead and Walter pushing for those minutes. Against a Knicks frontcourt built around Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond, Toronto's size and rebounding behind Poeltl is a clear matchup question, and the rotation itself is not settled.
- No Raptor besides Jakob Poeltl stands taller than 6-9.
- Allen Graves and Trayce Jackson-Davis are the tallest backup-center options.
- The closing group is likely to vary around Immanuel, RJ Barrett, Leonard, Barnes and Poeltl.

NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.

Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a likely close game, the Knicks receiving 6.5 points provides a cushion even if they lose narrowly.
- If Toronto's starters play extended minutes and New York's bench struggles, the Raptors could win by more than 6.5.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimewonNew York Knicks +6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's first-half scoring margin is positive, suggesting they can lead at halftime.
- The Knicks could start strong at home and take a halftime lead.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · ResultlostToronto RaptorsEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's first-quarter scoring margin is positive, suggesting they can win the opening period.
- The Knicks' home energy could give them the first-quarter edge.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · ResultlostToronto RaptorsEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's third-quarter scoring margin is positive, suggesting they can win the period.
- The Knicks' depth could help them take the third quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · ResultlostToronto RaptorsEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto has shown stronger recent preseason scoring and could benefit if New York limits its veteran starters.
- The Knicks' home venue and depth may still overwhelm a Raptors team with unsettled center minutes.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimelostToronto RaptorsEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's second-quarter scoring margin is positive, suggesting they can win the period.
- The Knicks could use their depth to take the second quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · ResultlostToronto RaptorsEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The Knicks receiving 5.5 points in the first half provides value if Toronto's lead is modest.
- Toronto's first-half dominance could result in a double-digit lead, covering the spread.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · HandicapwonNew York Knicks +5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Toronto's superior recent scoring output and New York's reduced preseason load for starters make the Raptors a slight regulation favorite.
- The Knicks' home court and depth could still produce a regulation win if their bench outperforms.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Result after 48 minlostToronto RaptorsEstimated chance51%

Points6 of 11 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New York's first-half scoring average exceeds 55.5, indicating a good chance they surpass it.
- If starters play limited minutes, the Knicks' first-half scoring could dip below this line.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · New York Knicks pointswonNew York Knicks · Over 55.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's first-half scoring average is comfortably under 61.5, making the under likely.
- A high-scoring first half from the Raptors could push them over.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Toronto Raptors pointswonToronto Raptors · Under 61.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York's first-quarter scoring average exceeds 26.5, indicating a strong chance they surpass it.
- Limited starter minutes could reduce the Knicks' first-quarter output.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · New York Knicks pointswonNew York Knicks · Over 26.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's first-quarter scoring average is under 30.5, making the under likely.
- A hot start from the Raptors could push them over.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Toronto Raptors pointslostToronto Raptors · Under 30.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's second-quarter scoring average is under 31.5, making the under likely.
- A high-scoring second quarter from the Raptors could push them over.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Toronto Raptors pointswonToronto Raptors · Under 31.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York's third-quarter scoring average is under 25.5, making the under likely.
- A strong third quarter from the Knicks could push them over.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · New York Knicks pointswonNew York Knicks · Under 25.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The Knicks' preseason scoring has been inconsistent, and limited starter minutes could keep them under 108.5.
- New York's bench has shown it can score in bunches, potentially exceeding this line.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · New York Knicks points · Incl. overtimelostNew York Knicks · Under 108.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York's second-quarter scoring average exceeds 28.5, indicating a good chance they surpass it.
- Limited starter minutes could reduce the Knicks' second-quarter output.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · New York Knicks pointslostNew York Knicks · Over 28.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's third-quarter scoring average exceeds 27.5, indicating a good chance they surpass it.
- If the Raptors rest starters, their third-quarter scoring could dip below this line.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Toronto Raptors pointslostToronto Raptors · Over 27.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's scoring average sits just below 114.5, and preseason experimentation may cap their output.
- The Raptors' fast preseason start suggests they could easily surpass this line.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Toronto Raptors points · Incl. overtimelostToronto Raptors · Under 114.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-quarter averages suggest this line is near the median, but defensive intensity could lower scoring.
- Both teams have shown the ability to score in the 30s in the second quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Total pointswonUnder 60.5Estimated chance52%

W112–95

New York Knicksv

Toronto Raptors

Apr 10, 2026·REG

207Avg total points

17Avg margin

1meetings

League table

NBA · 2026–27 regular season

Standings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.

Recent Form

New York Knicks

14W 10L · last 24

vs Washington Wizards109–111 Oct 8PRE

at Philadelphia 76ers97–120 Oct 5PRE

vs Charlotte Hornets96–110 Apr 12REG

vs Toronto Raptors112–95 Apr 10REG

vs Boston Celtics112–106 Apr 9REG

at Atlanta Hawks108–105 Apr 6REG

vs Chicago Bulls136–96 Apr 3REG

at Memphis Grizzlies130–119 Apr 2REG

at Houston Rockets94–111 Apr 1REG

at Oklahoma City Thunder100–111 Mar 29REG

at Charlotte Hornets103–114 Mar 26REG

vs New Orleans Pelicans121–116 Mar 24REG

vs Washington Wizards145–113 Mar 22REG

at Brooklyn Nets93–92 Mar 20REG

vs Indiana Pacers136–110 Mar 17REG

vs Golden State Warriors110–107 Mar 16REG

at Indiana Pacers101–92 Mar 13REG

at Utah Jazz134–117 Mar 12REG

at LA Clippers118–126 Mar 10REG

at Los Angeles Lakers97–110 Mar 8REG

at Denver Nuggets142–103 Mar 7REG

vs Oklahoma City Thunder100–103 Mar 5REG

vs Charlotte Hornets113–108 Oct 17PRE

vs Washington Wizards103–120 Oct 13PRE

Toronto Raptors

14W 10L · last 24

vs LA Clippers114–106 Oct 10PRE

vs Brooklyn Nets136–101 Apr 12REG

at New York Knicks95–112 Apr 10REG

vs Miami Heat128–114 Apr 9REG

vs Miami Heat121–95 Apr 7REG

at Boston Celtics101–115 Apr 5REG

at Memphis Grizzlies128–96 Apr 4REG

vs Sacramento Kings115–123 Apr 2REG

at Detroit Pistons116–127 Apr 1REG

vs Orlando Magic139–87 Mar 29REG

vs New Orleans Pelicans119–106 Mar 28REG

at LA Clippers94–119 Mar 26REG

at Utah Jazz143–127 Mar 24REG

at Phoenix Suns98–120 Mar 23REG

at Denver Nuggets115–121 Mar 21REG

at Chicago Bulls139–109 Mar 19REG

vs Detroit Pistons119–108 Mar 15REG

vs Phoenix Suns122–115 Mar 13REG

at New Orleans Pelicans111–122 Mar 12REG

at Houston Rockets99–113 Mar 11REG

vs Dallas Mavericks122–92 Mar 8REG

vs Brooklyn Nets119–114 Oct 17PRE

at Boston Celtics108–110 Oct 15PRE

at Washington Wizards113–112 Oct 12PRE

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

New York Knicks

24 games

Stats

3–2

Toronto Raptors

24 games

New York Knicks leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.1pp

57.4%

+1.1pp

56.3%

3-point %+2.0pp

35.1%

+2.0pp

37.1%

Free-throw %+5.4pp

79.4%

+5.4pp

74.0%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.2pp apart

33.2%

4.2pp apart

29.0%

Free throws per shot5.3pp apart

23.7%

5.3pp apart

29.0%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+2.2

44.4

+2.2

42.2

Turnovers per game0.7 fewer

14.1

0.7 fewer

13.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.