NBAAOT

Predictions graded

Oklahoma City Thunder114Indiana Pacers112

Regulation 100-100Wed 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions gradedPaycom CenterPreseason

Predictions6–1726%

Points by period: Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT
Oklahoma City Thunder	25	34	26	15	14
Indiana Pacers	33	28	23	16	12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Indiana holds the slightly better period-level evidence in a preseason meeting the scoring outlook leans toward a higher total, but Oklahoma City's fast starts are a genuine counterweight.

No player forecasts were supported, and whole-game side markets were left without a clear lean.

Context

Indiana's expected Haliburton-Zubac first unit and Oklahoma City's preseason rest plan for Gilgeous-Alexander and other core players frame two teams still sorting rotations, which keeps the scoring outlooks provisional.

Oklahoma City entered the summer facing the second apron after a 64-18 season and a Western Conference Finals exit, and reshuffled the edges of the roster. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe were each dealt for two second-round picks, while Lu Dort went out in a three-team deal for three more; the three combined for 28.8 points per game and all played on the 2025 championship team. Isaiah Hartenstein's three-year, $75 million extension and Kenrich Williams' one-year return preserve the double-big structure around Chet Holmgren, and No. 12 pick Aday Mara adds a 7-foot-3 option. The counterpoint is depth: Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso and Jared McCain must absorb the lost wing minutes, making this preseason an early test of whether the younger bench holds up.
- Oklahoma City traded Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe for two second-round picks each.
- Lu Dort was sent out in a three-team deal for three second-round picks.
- Isaiah Hartenstein re-signed for three years and $75 million; Kenrich Williams returned on a one-year deal.
- Aday Mara (No. 12) and Bennett Stirtz (No. 16) were drafted into a roster built around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Cason Wallace started 58 games last season, averaged 8.6 points and made the All-Defensive Second Team at 22, which frames him as the likely replacement for the departed Lu Dort. The projection also assumes Jalen Williams is healthy after wrist and hamstring problems limited him to 33 games, the swing factor for both the first and second units. Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams and Aday Mara make up the projected bench, giving Oklahoma City size and defensive pressure. The counterpoint is that this is a projection from before training camp; nothing ties it to the Oct. 14 rotation, and the lineup may look different once the staff settles on combinations.
- The projected starters are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
- The projected bench lists Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jared McCain, Jaylin Williams and Aday Mara.
- Wallace started 58 games and made the All-Defensive Second Team last season.
- Jalen Williams played 33 games last season because of wrist and hamstring issues.
Mark Daigneault framed the preseason schedule as a controlled build rather than a set rotation, saying the team makes its own schedule and will not use high-minute players in every exhibition. The absences in the opener also reflected injury management: Nikola Topic was recovering from June back surgery, Thomas Sorber from a July knee scope and Jaylin Williams from right heel soreness. That approach matters here because Oklahoma City's primary scorers and creators may be limited or rested, pushing preseason minutes toward Ajay Mitchell, Aday Mara and the deeper bench. The counterpoint is that plans can change from game to game, and Daigneault has not said how the Oct. 14 minutes will be divided.
- Mark Daigneault said the preseason back-to-backs are by design and high-minute rotation players will not play every game.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso sat the Oct. 6 opener mainly for rest.
- Nikola Topic (June back surgery), Thomas Sorber (July knee scope) and Jaylin Williams (right heel soreness) were also out.
The camp roster confirms the structure around an unusually young, draft-heavy group. Eight first-round picks from the past five drafts give Mark Daigneault a deep pool to evaluate across the preseason, and the Oct. 7 home date against Milwaukee serves as the Paycom Center tune-up before the Oct. 14 meeting with Indiana. For this matchup, the roster count matters mainly for minutes distribution: with 21 players in camp and limited exhibition games, some rotation decisions may still be open. No specific roles or availability are attached to the camp count, so it reads as context rather than a lineup indicator.
- Oklahoma City announced a 21-player 2026-27 training camp roster.
- The roster features eight first-round picks from the last five drafts.
- Mark Daigneault enters his seventh season as head coach.
- Oklahoma City opened preseason in Tulsa against New Orleans before hosting Milwaukee at Paycom Center.

NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.

Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana won its most recent third quarter 38-26 and has generally been the stronger side in that period.
- Indiana lost two 2025 third quarters by double digits.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · ResultlostIndiana PacersEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana only needs to stay within three points at halftime, and it kept recent first halves close or led.
- Oklahoma City's 82- and 73-point first halves show it can pull away early.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · HandicapwonIndiana Pacers +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana has produced several double-digit third-quarter margins, making a five-point edge achievable.
- Indiana lost a 2025 third quarter 25-35.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · HandicaplostIndiana Pacers -4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana needs only to stay within three points after one quarter, and its recent opening periods were mostly close.
- Indiana lost a 2025 first quarter by 11 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · HandicapwonIndiana Pacers +3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana wins this if it takes the second quarter or ties it, and it won three of its last four.
- Indiana was beaten 38-29 in its most recent second quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · HandicaplostIndiana Pacers +0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oklahoma City led at halftime in four of its last six preseason games, giving it a reasonable edge to lead again.
- Halftime leads can hinge on which rotation players are available in a preseason game.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · ResultlostOklahoma City ThunderEstimated chance50%

Points3 of 15 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Oklahoma City's third-quarter scoring has been consistently low, at 20, 26, 20, 14, 17 and 36 points.
- Oklahoma City's 36-point third quarter shows it can clear the line.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Oklahoma City Thunder pointslostOklahoma City Thunder · Under 24.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent preseason games involving these teams have generally produced combined scoring at or above this level, including totals of 254, 235 and 237.
- A low-scoring Oklahoma City exhibition like its 185-point game shows how far totals can fall.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimelostOver 226.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana has scored 63 or more in three of its last four first halves, including 66 and 63 in 2025.
- Indiana was held to 61 in its most recent first half.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Indiana Pacers pointslostIndiana Pacers · Over 61.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana has scored 116 or more in three of its last four preseason games, including 123 in its most recent outing.
- Indiana was held to 104 and 108 in two 2025 preseason games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Indiana Pacers points · Incl. overtimelostIndiana Pacers · Over 113.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first halves involving these teams have generally landed near or above this total, including 146, 138 and 135 points.
- A 105-point first half in a 2025 game shows the downside.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Total pointslostOver 125.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana scored 32 or more in three of its last four second quarters, including 36 and 35.
- Indiana's 29-point second quarter in its most recent game shows the downside.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Indiana Pacers pointslostIndiana Pacers · Over 31.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent third quarters involving these teams frequently produced 60 or more combined points, including 64-point periods.
- A 36-point third quarter in a 2025 game shows the low end.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Total pointslostOver 53.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indiana scored 29 or more in three of its last four third quarters, including 38 in its most recent game.
- Indiana was held to 25 in a 2025 third quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Indiana Pacers pointslostIndiana Pacers · Over 29.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oklahoma City's preseason scoring average sits just below this line, with several games in the low 100s or lower.
- Oklahoma City scored 126 and 122 in two recent exhibitions, showing it can clear the line comfortably.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Oklahoma City Thunder points · Incl. overtimelostOklahoma City Thunder · Under 113.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oklahoma City's recent first halves include 82, 73 and 67 points, though it was also held to 46.
- Oklahoma City finished three of six recent first halves below 65 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Oklahoma City Thunder pointslostOklahoma City Thunder · Over 64.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent first quarters involving these teams produced combined totals of 79, 70 and 67 points alongside lower-scoring openings.
- A 43-point first quarter in a 2025 game shows the low end.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Total pointslostOver 61.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oklahoma City's recent first quarters include 22, 29 and 31 points, leaving a slight lean below the line.
- Oklahoma City opened with 44 and 34 points in its two 2026 preseason games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Oklahoma City Thunder pointswonOklahoma City Thunder · Under 32.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Indiana has scored 30 or more in three of its last four first quarters, including 32 in its most recent game.
- Indiana opened with 28 points in a 2025 game.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Indiana Pacers pointswonIndiana Pacers · Over 29.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent second quarters involving these teams have often produced 62 to 71 combined points, averaging near this total.
- One recent second quarter combined for only 57 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Total pointslostOver 64.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oklahoma City has scored 33 or more in four of its last six second quarters, including 38 and 40.
- Oklahoma City was held to 24 and 29 in two recent second quarters.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Oklahoma City Thunder pointswonOklahoma City Thunder · Over 32.5Estimated chance51%

L116–101

Indiana Pacersv

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oct 11, 2025·PRE

217Avg total points

15Avg margin

1meetings

League table

NBA · 2026–27 regular season

Standings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.

Recent Form

Oklahoma City Thunder

20W 6L · last 26

vs Milwaukee Bucks126–128 Oct 8PRE

vs New Orleans Pelicans110–116 Oct 7PRE

vs Phoenix Suns103–135 Apr 13REG

at Denver Nuggets107–127 Apr 11REG

at LA Clippers128–110 Apr 9REG

at Los Angeles Lakers123–87 Apr 8REG

vs Utah Jazz146–111 Apr 5REG

vs Los Angeles Lakers139–96 Apr 3REG

vs Detroit Pistons114–110 OTMar 31REG

vs New York Knicks111–100 Mar 29REG

vs Chicago Bulls131–113 Mar 28REG

at Boston Celtics109–119 Mar 25REG

at Philadelphia 76ers123–103 Mar 23REG

at Washington Wizards132–111 Mar 21REG

at Brooklyn Nets121–92 Mar 18REG

at Orlando Magic113–108 Mar 17REG

vs Minnesota Timberwolves116–103 Mar 15REG

vs Boston Celtics104–102 Mar 13REG

vs Denver Nuggets129–126 Mar 9REG

vs Golden State Warriors104–97 Mar 8REG

at New York Knicks103–100 Mar 5REG

at Chicago Bulls116–108 Mar 4REG

vs Denver Nuggets94–91 Oct 18PRE

at Milwaukee Bucks116–112 Oct 15PRE

at Indiana Pacers101–116 Oct 11PRE

vs Charlotte Hornets122–116 Oct 10PRE

Indiana Pacers

6W 18L · last 24

vs Minnesota Timberwolves123–112 Oct 7PRE

vs Detroit Pistons121–133 Apr 12REG

vs Philadelphia 76ers94–105 Apr 10REG

at Brooklyn Nets123–94 Apr 9REG

vs Minnesota Timberwolves104–124 Apr 7REG

at Cleveland Cavaliers108–117 Apr 5REG

at Charlotte Hornets108–129 Apr 3REG

at Chicago Bulls145–126 Apr 2REG

vs Miami Heat135–118 Mar 29REG

vs LA Clippers113–114 Mar 27REG

vs Los Angeles Lakers130–137 Mar 25REG

at Orlando Magic128–126 Mar 23REG

at San Antonio Spurs119–134 Mar 22REG

vs Portland Trail Blazers119–127 Mar 18REG

at New York Knicks110–136 Mar 17REG

at Milwaukee Bucks123–134 Mar 15REG

vs New York Knicks92–101 Mar 13REG

vs Phoenix Suns108–123 Mar 12REG

at Sacramento Kings109–114 Mar 11REG

at Portland Trail Blazers111–131 Mar 9REG

at Los Angeles Lakers117–128 Mar 7REG

at San Antonio Spurs104–133 Oct 18PRE

vs San Antonio Spurs108–124 Oct 13PRE

vs Oklahoma City Thunder116–101 Oct 11PRE

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Oklahoma City Thunder

26 games

Stats

3–2

Indiana Pacers

24 games

Oklahoma City Thunder leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+1.0pp

57.3%

+1.0pp

56.3%

3-point %+0.8pp

36.8%

+0.8pp

37.6%

Free-throw %+1.1pp

79.6%

+1.1pp

80.7%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s0.6pp apart

37.9%

0.6pp apart

38.5%

Free throws per shot3.5pp apart

25.0%

3.5pp apart

21.5%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+3.0

44.3

+3.0

41.3

Turnovers per game1.8 fewer

13.6

1.8 fewer

15.4

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.