NBAFinished

Predictions graded

Utah Jazz119San Antonio Spurs109

Tue 13 Oct 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedDelta CenterPreseason

Predictions5–1921%

Points by period: Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Utah Jazz	33	35	31	20
San Antonio Spurs	26	35	17	31

Quick Take

Pre-match view

San Antonio's scoring and defense give it the stronger full-game case, but preseason minute management and Utah's recent competitiveness keep the home side live.

Context

San Antonio's returning core around Victor Wembanyama and a deep rotation meets a Utah team reshuffling its frontcourt after a reported center injury, with both sides likely to manage minutes in preseason.

Utah used training camp under Will Hardy to tighten defense, communication and chemistry before a four-game preseason that includes a home meeting with San Antonio. The Spurs visit Salt Lake City on Oct. 12 at 7 p.m. MT, Utah's third preseason game, after a home-and-home set with Denver and before a trip to Phoenix. Camp also gave the staff time to blend a reworked frontcourt around Jaren Jackson Jr. and to test rookie Darryn Peterson against NBA pace. The renovated Delta Center debuts Oct. 6, but preseason games are tune-ups, so minutes and combinations may not mirror the regular-season rotation and the camp gains remain unproven.
- Training camp under Will Hardy focused on defense, chemistry and communication.
- Preseason schedule runs at Denver Oct. 4, vs. Denver Oct. 6, vs. San Antonio Oct. 12, at Phoenix Oct. 16.
- The Oct. 4 Denver game was played at the CU Events Center in Boulder.
- The renovated Delta Center opened Oct. 6.
San Antonio arrives as the reigning Western Conference champion, powered by Victor Wembanyama's rim protection and three-level scoring, with Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper adding pace and creation. Utah has framed the Oct. 12 meeting as a test against the league's third-ranked defense from a season ago. The Jazz will lean on their young backcourt to handle San Antonio's length and on a reshuffled frontcourt to limit Wembanyama inside. Because it is an exhibition, both teams may cap starter minutes and the outcome carries limited predictive weight for the regular season.
- San Antonio arrives as the reigning Western Conference champion.
- Victor Wembanyama leads a Spurs core that includes Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.
- San Antonio owned the NBA's third-ranked defense last season.
- Utah hosts San Antonio on Oct. 12 at 7 p.m. MT in its third preseason game.
Continuity defines San Antonio's camp: the roster opened at 21 players with 12 returners and all of last season's top 10 scorers, keeping the core that reached the Western Conference final. De'Aaron Fox organized a teammates mini-camp in Texas and Victor Wembanyama hosted one in France before camp began Sept. 29 at the Victory Capital Performance Center. Preseason play started against Atlanta at Frost Bank Center. Camp attendance does not settle roles, so Utah should expect San Antonio to spread preseason minutes and keep some veterans on limited workloads.
- Camp opened Sept. 29 at the Victory Capital Performance Center.
- The roster stood at 21 players, including 12 returners and last season's top 10 scorers.
- De'Aaron Fox hosted a teammates mini-camp in Texas and Victor Wembanyama hosted one in France.
- Preseason play began against Atlanta at Frost Bank Center.
The projection reflects Utah's move toward a younger core of Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr., with Darryn Peterson expected to carry a large bench role after being a high lottery pick. Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipowski follow, while Brice Sensabaugh could lose wing minutes in a deeper rotation. The lineup predates camp and Will Hardy has not confirmed it, and Jusuf Nurkic's foot injury could open center minutes for Filipowski or Jaxson Hayes. Preseason games, not projections, will settle the rotation for the Spurs visit.
- Projected starters: Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic.
- Darryn Peterson projected sixth, Isaiah Collier seventh, Kyle Filipowski eighth, Brice Sensabaugh ninth.
- Josh Green, Josh Okogie and Jaxson Hayes projected outside the nightly rotation.
- The five is a projection, not a confirmed lineup.

NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.

Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio has scored 124-134 points in recent preseason wins and pairs a title-level defense with Wembanyama's length.
- Preseason travel and managed starter minutes could blunt San Antonio's edge in Salt Lake City.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimelostSan Antonio SpursEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio won or drew recent third quarters by comfortable margins in three of four games.
- San Antonio lost its most recent third quarter by five points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · HandicaplostSan Antonio Spurs +0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Utah has kept three of its last five preseason results within 6.5 points or better, including a four-point home loss to San Antonio.
- San Antonio recorded 133-104 and 124-108 preseason wins that would clear this spread.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimewonUtah Jazz +6.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Utah's first-half margins have mostly stayed within five points, including a narrow home first half against San Antonio.
- San Antonio led by 17 at halftime in the last meeting between these teams.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · HandicapwonUtah Jazz +5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's regulation scoring has outpaced Utah's recent preseason output while its defense limits opposing totals.
- Preseason experimentation can leave regulation undecided despite San Antonio's overall edge.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Result after 48 minlostSan Antonio SpursEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's second quarters reached 35 and 38 points in recent games, outpacing Utah's second-quarter output.
- San Antonio managed only 27 and 30 second-quarter points in two other games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · ResultlostSan Antonio SpursEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio won a recent second quarter by 13 points, though three others were lost.
- San Antonio lost recent second quarters by 12, eight and one point.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · HandicaplostSan Antonio Spurs -3.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's recent first halves produced 66-72 points, outpacing Utah's first-half output.
- Utah's home first halves have been competitive, including a 63-point half.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · ResultlostSan Antonio SpursEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio has started fast with 34-39 point first quarters in each of its recent preseason games.
- Preseason starters often open with limited minutes, which can flatten first-quarter scoring.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · ResultlostSan Antonio SpursEstimated chance50%

Points3 of 14 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Utah's second-quarter points have ranged from 25 to 28 across five recent games, all below 30.5.
- A high-scoring second quarter against a preseason defense could push Utah above 30.5.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Utah Jazz pointslostUtah Jazz · Under 30.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio has scored 34-39 first-quarter points in every recent preseason game.
- Managed preseason minutes could hold San Antonio's opening quarter below 33 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · San Antonio Spurs pointslostSan Antonio Spurs · Over 32.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio has scored 66-72 first-half points in each of its last four preseason games.
- A preseason road game could reduce San Antonio's first-half scoring to the low 60s.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · San Antonio Spurs pointslostSan Antonio Spurs · Over 65.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio scored 30 or fewer second-quarter points in two of its last four preseason games.
- San Antonio scored 35 and 38 second-quarter points in its other recent games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · San Antonio Spurs pointslostSan Antonio Spurs · Under 33.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio scored 124-134 points in three recent preseason games, clearing 122.5 comfortably.
- Its most recent preseason outing produced only 116 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · San Antonio Spurs points · Incl. overtimelostSan Antonio Spurs · Over 122.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Utah has scored 30-36 first-quarter points in four of its last five preseason games.
- Utah was held to 27 first-quarter points in one recent game.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Utah Jazz pointswonUtah Jazz · Over 29.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Utah was held to 53-55 first-half points in two recent preseason games, showing the under is reachable.
- Utah scored 63 first-half points in its most recent home preseason win.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Utah Jazz pointslostUtah Jazz · Under 59.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent preseason games involving these teams have often produced combined totals above 237 points, including a 264-point Utah-San Antonio meeting.
- Managed preseason minutes and cold shooting could keep combined scoring below 237.5.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimelostOver 237.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utah has been held below 115 points in three of its last five preseason games, including its most recent outing.
- Utah scored 132 and 130 points in higher-scoring preseason games last year.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Utah Jazz points · Incl. overtimelostUtah Jazz · Under 115.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utah's recent first quarters combined for 55-62 points in three of five games, keeping the under in play.
- San Antonio's opening quarters combined for 64-67 points in recent games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Total pointswonUnder 62.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utah's second quarters combined for 53-58 points in three of five recent games.
- San Antonio's second quarters combined for 71-72 points in recent games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Total pointslostUnder 63.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utah's third quarters combined for 45-58 points in four of five recent games.
- Utah and Portland combined for 78 third-quarter points in one game.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Total pointswonUnder 58.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Utah was held below 30 third-quarter points in three of its last five preseason games.
- Utah scored 35 and 43 third-quarter points in its two highest-scoring games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Utah Jazz pointslostUtah Jazz · Under 29.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio scored 35 third-quarter points in two recent games, clearing 28.5 in each.
- San Antonio managed only 23 and 26 third-quarter points in its other games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · San Antonio Spurs pointslostSan Antonio Spurs · Over 28.5Estimated chance51%

L134–130

San Antonio Spursv

Utah Jazz

Oct 11, 2025·PREOT

264Avg total points

4Avg margin

1meetings

League table

NBA · 2026–27 regular season

Standings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.

Recent Form

Utah Jazz

6W 19L · last 25

vs Denver Nuggets106–117 Oct 7PRE

at Denver Nuggets109–97 Oct 4PRE

at Los Angeles Lakers107–131 Apr 13REG

vs Memphis Grizzlies147–101 Apr 11REG

at New Orleans Pelicans137–156 Apr 8REG

at Oklahoma City Thunder111–146 Apr 5REG

at Houston Rockets106–140 Apr 4REG

vs Denver Nuggets117–130 Apr 2REG

vs Cleveland Cavaliers113–122 Mar 31REG

at Phoenix Suns109–134 Mar 29REG

at Denver Nuggets129–135 Mar 28REG

vs Washington Wizards110–133 Mar 26REG

vs Toronto Raptors127–143 Mar 24REG

vs Philadelphia 76ers116–126 Mar 22REG

vs Milwaukee Bucks128–96 Mar 20REG

at Minnesota Timberwolves111–147 Mar 19REG

at Sacramento Kings111–116 Mar 16REG

at Portland Trail Blazers114–124 Mar 14REG

vs New York Knicks117–134 Mar 12REG

vs Golden State Warriors119–116 Mar 10REG

at Milwaukee Bucks99–113 Mar 8REG

at Washington Wizards122–112 Mar 6REG

vs Portland Trail Blazers132–129 Oct 17PRE

vs Dallas Mavericks101–114 Oct 14PRE

at San Antonio Spurs130–134 OTOct 11PRE

San Antonio Spurs

20W 4L · last 24

vs Atlanta Hawks116–123 Oct 9PRE

vs Denver Nuggets118–128 Apr 13REG

vs Dallas Mavericks139–120 Apr 11REG

vs Portland Trail Blazers112–101 Apr 9REG

vs Philadelphia 76ers115–102 Apr 7REG

at Denver Nuggets134–136 OTApr 4REG

at LA Clippers118–99 Apr 3REG

at Golden State Warriors127–113 Apr 2REG

vs Chicago Bulls129–114 Mar 31REG

at Milwaukee Bucks127–95 Mar 28REG

at Memphis Grizzlies123–98 Mar 26REG

at Miami Heat136–111 Mar 23REG

vs Indiana Pacers134–119 Mar 22REG

vs Phoenix Suns101–100 Mar 20REG

at Sacramento Kings132–104 Mar 18REG

at LA Clippers119–115 Mar 17REG

vs Charlotte Hornets115–102 Mar 14REG

vs Denver Nuggets131–136 Mar 13REG

vs Boston Celtics125–116 Mar 11REG

vs Houston Rockets145–120 Mar 9REG

vs LA Clippers116–112 Mar 7REG

vs Indiana Pacers133–104 Oct 18PRE

at Indiana Pacers124–108 Oct 13PRE

vs Utah Jazz134–130 OTOct 11PRE

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Utah Jazz

25 games

Stats

0–5

San Antonio Spurs

24 games

San Antonio Spurs leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 0–3

2-point %+3.9pp

54.7%

+3.9pp

58.6%

3-point %+3.7pp

33.9%

+3.7pp

37.6%

Free-throw %+4.4pp

75.8%

+4.4pp

80.2%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.0pp apart

31.3%

4.0pp apart

35.3%

Free throws per shot0.4pp apart

27.1%

0.4pp apart

26.7%

Possession· 0–2

Rebounds per game+4.0

44.2

+4.0

48.2

Turnovers per game1.5 fewer

14.6

1.5 fewer

13.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.