NBAFinished

Predictions graded

Toronto Raptors148New York Knicks98

Tue 13 Oct 2026, 23:00 Predictions gradedScotiabank ArenaPreseason

Predictions7–1630%

Points by period: Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Toronto Raptors	42	44	30	32
New York Knicks	22	25	31	20

Quick Take

Pre-match view

New York has the stronger case on current scoring evidence, but its winless preseason and the chance of restricted veteran minutes keep the game open, with Toronto's rotation still unsettled.

Context

New York's settled core and Toronto's open rotation frame the matchup, with Kawhi Leonard's expected load management and the Raptors' day-to-day group making the home side harder to read.

Toronto's projected first unit for the preseason meeting with New York is Immanuel Quickley at point guard, RJ Barrett at shooting guard, Kawhi Leonard at small forward, Scottie Barnes at power forward and Jakob Poeltl at centre. Collin Murray-Boyles and Kyle Anderson sit behind Barnes at the four, and Trayce Jackson-Davis is the next option behind Poeltl. The same chart lists Jackson-Davis, Jamison Battle, Allen Graves, Leonard and Nate Bittle as day to day, so the group is a projection rather than a confirmed lineup. That leaves Toronto's wing and centre rotations open for the Oct. 13 game, and any of the day-to-day players could be withheld.
- Projected starters: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl.
- Collin Murray-Boyles and Kyle Anderson are the next power forwards behind Scottie Barnes.
- Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jamison Battle, Allen Graves, Kawhi Leonard and Nate Bittle are listed day to day.
- The unit is a projection, not a confirmed lineup.
New York signed five established veterans to nonguaranteed contracts and is letting them compete for what projects to be a single open roster place while staying under the second apron. Because centre is the position of need, James Wiseman and Drew Eubanks are viewed as the leading candidates, while Bruce Brown or John Konchar would need to force a cap-clearing trade to change the arithmetic. The outcome shapes the back end of the Knicks rotation and their centre depth behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond, but the final decision remains unresolved and could hinge on a late preseason move.
- Five nonguaranteed deals: Bruce Brown, John Konchar, James Wiseman, Drew Eubanks and Ochai Agbaji.
- The Knicks likely have room for one player while staying under the second apron.
- Centre-needy James Wiseman and Drew Eubanks hold the inside track.
- Bruce Brown or John Konchar could force a cap-clearing trade.
Mitchell Robinson left for Boston in free agency as a cap casualty, and nobody on the roster replicates his rebounding and rim protection. Andre Drummond arrives as the only rotational newcomer and one of only two natural frontcourt players under contract, offering improved shooting but reduced mobility and making the centre minutes more load-bearing behind Karl-Anthony Towns. That thinner interior is a live question for a preseason game at Toronto. Separately, Miles McBride enters camp fully healthy after sports hernia surgery and is looking to re-establish himself as the top guard off the bench after Landry Shamet's playoff emergence.
- Mitchell Robinson left for Boston in free agency as a cap casualty.
- Andre Drummond is the only rotational newcomer and one of two natural frontcourt players under contract.
- No roster replacement matches Robinson's rebounding and rim protection.
- Miles McBride enters camp fully healthy after sports hernia surgery.
Toronto is taking a cautious approach with Kawhi Leonard, who is not expected to appear in the weekend preseason game against the Clippers and is projected to feature in only about two of the Raptors' five exhibition games. The plan reflects a longer-term effort to keep him fresh through the season rather than a specific injury, and it adds a load-management layer on top of the day-to-day listing he already carries. That makes his availability for the Oct. 13 meeting with New York uncertain, with usage likely shifting toward RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley if he sits. Official confirmation of his participation is pending.
- Leonard is not expected to play the weekend exhibition against the Clippers.
- He is expected to appear in roughly two of Toronto's five preseason games.
- The Raptors intend to preserve him heavily across the season.

NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.

Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 11 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York only needs to stay within three points in the third quarter, which its closer third-quarter results support.
- Toronto's 35-point third quarters can push the margin past three.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · HandicapwonNew York Knicks +3.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York's stronger roster makes a Toronto win by five or more the less likely side of this line.
- An early Raptors run could put the game beyond this margin before the benches empty.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimelostNew York Knicks +4.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York's first-half scoring output supports it staying within a three-point margin at the break.
- A slow Knicks start could leave them trailing by more than three at halftime.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · HandicaplostNew York Knicks +2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New York's consistent opening-quarter scoring supports it avoiding a two-point deficit after one.
- Toronto's 37-point opening shows the Raptors can pull away early.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · HandicaplostNew York Knicks +1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New York only needs to avoid losing the second quarter, and its scoring bursts give it the edge.
- Toronto's 35-point second quarters can outscore the Knicks.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · HandicaplostNew York Knicks +0.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New York returns a settled championship core whose starters shared the floor in its most recent exhibition, while Toronto's availability remains open.
- The Knicks dropped both current preseason games and may limit veteran minutes.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimelostNew York KnicksEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York's stable rotation and stronger two-way personnel make the Knicks the likelier regulation winner.
- Preseason road games and veteran-minute caution can keep New York from closing it out.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Result after 48 minlostNew York KnicksEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York's 63- and 58-point first halves this month show it can take a halftime lead.
- The Knicks' veteran starters may see limited first-half minutes.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · ResultlostNew York KnicksEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York scored 34 second-quarter points twice in its same-stage sample.
- Toronto's second quarters were competitive in half its games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · ResultlostNew York KnicksEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York remains capable of winning the third quarter despite its modest same-stage third-quarter scoring.
- Toronto's 35-point third quarters show the Raptors can control this period.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · ResultwonNew York KnicksEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New York scored 29 or more first-quarter points in most of its same-stage games.
- The Raptors opened with 37 in one same-stage game and can take the quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · ResultlostNew York KnicksEstimated chance51%

Points5 of 12 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York fell under 107.5 in most of its same-stage games while averaging near 104.
- Toronto's same-stage defense allowed 110-plus regularly.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · New York Knicks points · Incl. overtimewonNew York Knicks · Under 107.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto scored under 29.5 in half of its same-stage second quarters.
- New York allowed 39 second-quarter points in two games.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Toronto Raptors pointslostToronto Raptors · Under 29.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto averaged roughly 30 third-quarter points in its 2025 preseason sample.
- Two Toronto third quarters stayed under 26 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Toronto Raptors pointswonToronto Raptors · Over 27.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half outputs across these samples averaged in the low 110s, leaving the under slightly favored.
- A high-scoring first half like New York's 130-point combined output shows the ceiling.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Total pointslostUnder 113.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's same-stage third quarters produced combined totals above this line in multiple games.
- New York's low-scoring third quarters can pull the total under.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Total pointswonOver 52.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto stayed under 111.5 in half of its 2025 preseason games and its rotation carries unresolved availability.
- New York's recent defensive lapses could let the Raptors clear this line.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Toronto Raptors points · Incl. overtimelostToronto Raptors · Under 111.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto stayed under 57.5 in most of its same-stage first halves.
- New York allowed 72 first-half points in its most recent exhibition.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Toronto Raptors pointslostToronto Raptors · Under 57.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto scored under 28.5 in most of its same-stage first quarters.
- New York's early defensive lapses can let the Raptors clear this.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Toronto Raptors pointslostToronto Raptors · Under 28.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New York reached 25 and 26 third-quarter points in several same-stage games.
- The Knicks scored 21 in two of their third quarters.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · New York Knicks pointswonNew York Knicks · Over 24.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New York was held to 38 and 52 first-half points in two of its last three same-stage games.
- The Knicks produced 64 and 63 in their other first halves.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · New York Knicks pointswonNew York Knicks · Under 55.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-quarter totals across these samples averaged in the low-to-mid 50s.
- High-scoring openers of 64 and 65 points keep the over live.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Total pointslostUnder 55.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New York scored 29 or more in most of its same-stage first quarters.
- Toronto's early defense limited opponents' opening quarters.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · New York Knicks pointslostNew York Knicks · Over 26.5Estimated chance51%

L112–95

New York Knicksv

Toronto Raptors

Apr 10, 2026·REG

207Avg total points

17Avg margin

1meetings

League table

NBA · 2026–27 regular season

Standings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.

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Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Toronto Raptors

24 games

Stats

2–3

New York Knicks

25 games

New York Knicks leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+0.8pp

56.1%

+0.8pp

56.9%

3-point %+2.3pp

36.8%

+2.3pp

34.5%

Free-throw %+5.0pp

74.3%

+5.0pp

79.3%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s4.1pp apart

29.5%

4.1pp apart

33.6%

Free throws per shot4.7pp apart

28.3%

4.7pp apart

23.6%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+3.2

41.6

+3.2

44.8

Turnovers per game0.6 fewer

13.4

0.6 fewer

14.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.