Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Under 233.5
fair 1.89
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 53%
+0.6ppedge
Denver's and Chicago's scoring outputs have been variable, and this higher line is less likely to be cleared.
NBAFinished
Predictions gradedDenver Nuggets133Chicago Bulls128
Predictions16–1355%
Edges1–325%
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 29 | 30 | 40 | 34 |
| Chicago Bulls | 27 | 41 | 26 | 34 |
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Denver has the stronger full-game evidence and a favorable same-stage scoring profile, but preseason substitution and Chicago’s recent scoring bursts keep the contest from being one-sided.
No player forecasts are supported, leaving team rotation uncertainty in the background.
Context
Denver’s expected regulars and DeMar DeRozan’s bench role meet a Chicago side managing reported frontcourt and backcourt absences; Matas Buzelis’s ankle plan and Caleb Wilson’s recent scoring form are the main swing factors.
NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.
Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Under 232.5
fair 1.92
Market 51.5% · BetBugs 52%
+0.5ppedge
The high line requires a strong combined shooting night, which is uncertain in preseason.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimewonUncertainty band: Strong lean
Denver Nuggets
fair 1.49
BetBugs 67% · Market 76.3%
−9.3ppshort
Denver is expected to use its regulars at Ball Arena while Chicago is missing several frontcourt and backcourt rotation players.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result6 of 11 landed
Points9 of 16 landed
Total points
Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.
Full game · overtime included
Price snapshot
Selected line
233.5
Bookmakers' main total
BetBugs · Under
53%
Chance of 233 points or fewer
+1 pp above break-even
Under 1.91 needs 52% to break even. BetBugs sees 53%.
Move the line main 233.5
Over Bookmaker quote
BetBugs –Under Bookmaker quote
BetBugs 53%Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.
W124–117Denver Nuggetsv
Chicago Bulls
Denver NuggetsvChicago Bulls·PRE
241Avg total points
7Avg margin
1meetings
League table
NBA · 2026–27 regular seasonStandings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.
Recent Form
Denver Nuggets
19W 6L · last 25W
at Utah Jazz117–106 PRE
at Utah Jazz117–106 PRELvs Utah Jazz97–109 PRE
vs Utah Jazz97–109 PREW
at San Antonio Spurs128–118 REG
at San Antonio Spurs128–118 REGW
vs Oklahoma City Thunder127–107 REG
vs Oklahoma City Thunder127–107 REGW
vs Memphis Grizzlies136–119 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies136–119 REGW
vs Portland Trail Blazers137–132 OTREG
vs Portland Trail Blazers137–132 OTREGWvs San Antonio Spurs136–134 OTREG
vs San Antonio Spurs136–134 OTREGWat Utah Jazz130–117 REG
at Utah Jazz130–117 REGW
vs Golden State Warriors116–93 REG
vs Golden State Warriors116–93 REGWvs Utah Jazz135–129 REG
vs Utah Jazz135–129 REGW
vs Dallas Mavericks142–135 REG
vs Dallas Mavericks142–135 REGW
at Phoenix Suns125–123 REG
at Phoenix Suns125–123 REGWvs Portland Trail Blazers128–112 REG
vs Portland Trail Blazers128–112 REGW
vs Toronto Raptors121–115 REG
vs Toronto Raptors121–115 REGLat Memphis Grizzlies118–125 REG
at Memphis Grizzlies118–125 REGW
vs Philadelphia 76ers124–96 REG
vs Philadelphia 76ers124–96 REGL
at Los Angeles Lakers125–127 OTREG
at Los Angeles Lakers125–127 OTREGWat San Antonio Spurs136–131 REG
at San Antonio Spurs136–131 REGW
vs Houston Rockets129–93 REG
vs Houston Rockets129–93 REGLat Oklahoma City Thunder126–129 REG
at Oklahoma City Thunder126–129 REGL
vs New York Knicks103–142 REG
vs New York Knicks103–142 REGWvs Los Angeles Lakers120–113 REG
vs Los Angeles Lakers120–113 REGLat Oklahoma City Thunder91–94 PRE
at Oklahoma City Thunder91–94 PREWvs Chicago Bulls124–117 PRE
vs Chicago Bulls124–117 PREW.svg)
at LA Clippers102–94 PRE
at LA Clippers102–94 PREChicago Bulls
9W 16L · last 25Wvs Phoenix Suns124–117 PRE
vs Phoenix Suns124–117 PRELat Dallas Mavericks128–149 REG
at Dallas Mavericks128–149 REGL
vs Orlando Magic103–127 REG
vs Orlando Magic103–127 REGW
at Washington Wizards119–108 REG
at Washington Wizards119–108 REGWat Washington Wizards129–98 REG
at Washington Wizards129–98 REGLvs Phoenix Suns110–120 REG
vs Phoenix Suns110–120 REGLat New York Knicks96–136 REG
at New York Knicks96–136 REGL
vs Indiana Pacers126–145 REG
vs Indiana Pacers126–145 REGLat San Antonio Spurs114–129 REG
at San Antonio Spurs114–129 REGLat Memphis Grizzlies124–125 REG
at Memphis Grizzlies124–125 REGLat Oklahoma City Thunder113–131 REG
at Oklahoma City Thunder113–131 REGLat Philadelphia 76ers137–157 REG
at Philadelphia 76ers137–157 REGWvs Houston Rockets132–124 REG
vs Houston Rockets132–124 REGL
vs Cleveland Cavaliers110–115 REG
vs Cleveland Cavaliers110–115 REGLvs Toronto Raptors109–139 REG
vs Toronto Raptors109–139 REGWvs Memphis Grizzlies132–107 REG
vs Memphis Grizzlies132–107 REGLat LA Clippers108–119 REG
at LA Clippers108–119 REGLat Los Angeles Lakers130–142 REG
at Los Angeles Lakers130–142 REGWat Golden State Warriors130–124 OTREG
at Golden State Warriors130–124 OTREGL
at Sacramento Kings110–126 REG
at Sacramento Kings110–126 REGWat Phoenix Suns105–103 REG
at Phoenix Suns105–103 REGW
vs Minnesota Timberwolves126–120 PRE
vs Minnesota Timberwolves126–120 PRELat Denver Nuggets117–124 PRE
at Denver Nuggets117–124 PREL
vs Milwaukee Bucks121–127 PRE
vs Milwaukee Bucks121–127 PREWvs Cleveland Cavaliers119–112 PRE
vs Cleveland Cavaliers119–112 PREStat Battle
Last 15 games · all competitions
Denver Nuggets
25 games
Stats
3–2
Chicago Bulls
25 games
Denver Nuggets leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.
Shooting· 2–1
2-point %+1.4pp
56.8%
+1.4pp58.2%
3-point %+7.1pp
39.3%
+7.1pp32.2%
Free-throw %+3.9pp
79.3%
+3.9pp75.4%
Scoring mix· style, not ranked
Points from 3s4.1pp apart
36.3%
4.1pp apart32.2%
Free throws per shot0.5pp apart
28.6%
0.5pp apart28.1%
Possession· 1–1
Rebounds per game+0.5
45.5
+0.546.0
Turnovers per game4.1 fewer
12.1
4.1 fewer16.2
Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.
Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.