NBAFinished

Predictions graded

Chicago Bulls100Memphis Grizzlies104

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions gradedUnited CenterPreseason

Predictions10–1442%

Points by period: Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies.
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Chicago Bulls	27	23	32	18
Memphis Grizzlies	30	30	25	19

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Chicago hold the better evidence for this preseason home meeting with Memphis, though the period-level scoring leans split between the sides.

No player forecasts are supported, so rotation and participation uncertainty dominate the read.

Context

Chicago enter with a new head coach, an unresolved backcourt role and a frontcourt availability watch, while Memphis are working through a heavily reshuffled core with a point-guard question and reported workload limits for Zach Edey and Micah Peavy; because nothing is confirmed, the research bears on rotation uncertainty rather than on any settled lineup for this preseason game.

NBA rules: full-game winner, handicap and totals include overtime. The 48-minute result, halves and quarters exclude it.

Experimental forecasts: accuracy has not yet been validated against historical results.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 11 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's second-quarter scoring average was 28.2, while Memphis allowed 35.4. Memphis scored 26.8, and Chicago allowed 23.6. The projected second-quarter score is about 31.8 to 25.2, giving Chicago a clear edge.
- Memphis's second-quarter offense could get hot from three.
- Chicago's bench units may struggle to maintain a lead.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · ResultlostChicago BullsEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's historical preseason scoring is slightly better balanced than Memphis's, and the designated home venue adds a small edge. Memphis is integrating a new core after major trades, while Chicago also has roster changes but retains more continuity. I assess a modest home win probability.
- Preseason rotation uncertainty and new coaching staffs for both teams limit predictive value.
- Memphis's young core could outperform if Chicago's new additions need time to gel.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Winner · Incl. overtimelostChicago BullsEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's first-half scoring average was 56.6, while Memphis allowed 67.8. Memphis scored 56.8, and Chicago allowed 58.0. The projected first-half score is about 62.2 to 57.4, giving Chicago a moderate lead at the break.
- First-half rotations in preseason are unpredictable and can change quickly.
- Memphis's young legs could start fast and take an early lead.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · ResultlostChicago BullsEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In regulation, Chicago's slight scoring edge and home designation give them a narrow advantage, but the game is close enough that a draw remains possible. Memphis's ability to score in bunches keeps them competitive, but Chicago's balanced preseason profile makes them a marginal favorite.
- Preseason games often see large swings and experimentation, reducing the value of historical scoring.
- Memphis could dictate with a faster, younger lineup despite the personnel changes.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Result after 48 minlostChicago BullsEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The projected first-half margin is about 4.8 points in Chicago's favor, just above this line. Their better first-half defense and home designation give them a slight edge to cover.
- Memphis's first-half scoring can be explosive, as shown by their 64-point halves.
- Preseason first-half minutes are distributed unpredictably.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · HandicaplostChicago Bulls -4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Memphis projects to a slight first-quarter advantage based on their scoring average and Chicago's allowance, while Chicago's first-quarter scoring and Memphis's allowance also favor Memphis. The away team has a modest edge in the opening period.
- Chicago could start strong at home and take the first quarter.
- Memphis's roster turnover may lead to early disorganization.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · ResultwonMemphis GrizzliesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Memphis is favored by 1.5 in the first quarter. Their projected margin is about 1.8 points, so they cover if they win by two or more. The historical data suggests they have a slight edge to do so.
- Chicago's defense allowed 34.4 first-quarter points, but Memphis's offense may not exploit it immediately.
- A one-point Memphis win would not cover.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · HandicapwonMemphis Grizzlies -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Memphis projects to a slight third-quarter advantage based on their scoring average and Chicago's allowance, while Chicago's third-quarter scoring and Memphis's allowance also favor Memphis. The away team has a modest edge in the third period.
- Chicago could dominate the third quarter at home after halftime adjustments.
- Memphis's roster turnover may lead to third-quarter inconsistency.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · ResultlostMemphis GrizzliesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Memphis is favored by 0.5 in the third quarter. They cover if they win the quarter. The historical data suggests a slight Memphis edge, so they have a better-than-even chance to win the quarter.
- A tie would not cover -0.5.
- Chicago's third-quarter defense allowed 36.2, but Memphis's offense may not exploit it.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · HandicaplostMemphis Grizzlies -0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Memphis's scoring ability and Chicago's defensive allowance suggest the game could stay within 5.5 points more often than not. The historical margin is nearly identical to the line, but Memphis's athleticism and Chicago's new system give a slight edge to the underdog covering.
- Chicago's home crowd and balanced scoring could produce a larger margin.
- Memphis's defensive issues could allow Chicago to pull away late.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Handicap · Incl. overtimewonMemphis Grizzlies +5.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The projected second-quarter margin is about 6.6 points in Chicago's favor, just above this line. Their strong second-quarter defense and Memphis's weak second-quarter defense give them a slight edge to cover.
- Memphis could keep it closer if their bench outperforms.
- Chicago's second-quarter offense may not be as efficient as projected.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · HandicaplostChicago Bulls -6.5Estimated chance51%

Points7 of 13 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's projected score is slightly below this line based on historical averages. Memphis's defense was poor, but Chicago's roster turnover and new coach could delay offensive cohesion, making the under a marginal play.
- Memphis's defense allowed 128.2 points per game, which could allow Chicago to exceed 124.5.
- Chicago has added offensive talent like Norman Powell and Nic Claxton.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Chicago Bulls points · Incl. overtimewonChicago Bulls · Under 124.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The projected total from historical data is just below this line. Chicago's defense allowed 120.0 points per game, which is average, while Memphis's offense averaged 117.6. The combination suggests a total in the low 240s, making the under a slight favorite.
- Memphis's poor defense could lead to a high-scoring affair.
- Chicago's new offensive pieces may push the pace and increase scoring.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Total points · Incl. overtimewonUnder 243.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Memphis averaged 117.6 points in last preseason, and Chicago allowed 120.0. The composite is about 118.8, just over this line. Memphis's young core could exceed this if they play freely, giving a slight edge to the over.
- Memphis's roster overhaul may lead to disjointed offense early.
- Chicago's defense could be improved with new additions like Nic Claxton.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · Full game · Memphis Grizzlies points · Incl. overtimelostMemphis Grizzlies · Over 118.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's projected first-half score is slightly below this line based on historical data. Their own first-half scoring average is modest, and while Memphis's defense was leaky, preseason rotation experimentation could limit Chicago's output.
- Memphis allowed 67.8 points per first half, which could boost Chicago's score.
- Chicago's home crowd and new talent could lead to a fast start.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Chicago Bulls pointswonChicago Bulls · Under 62.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Memphis's projected first-half score is just under this line. Their first-half scoring average was 56.8, and Chicago allowed 58.0, so the composite is below 57.5. The uncertainty of preseason rotations supports a slight lean to the under.
- Memphis's athleticism could lead to easy transition points early.
- Chicago's first-half defense was not elite, allowing 58.0 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st half · Memphis Grizzlies pointslostMemphis Grizzlies · Under 57.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's projected first-quarter score is slightly below this line based on historical data. Their own first-quarter scoring average is modest, and while Memphis's defense was leaky, preseason experimentation could limit Chicago's early output.
- Memphis allowed 32.4 points per first quarter, which could boost Chicago's score.
- Chicago has added offensive talent that could produce early points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Chicago Bulls pointswonChicago Bulls · Under 30.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Memphis's projected first-quarter score is just under this line. Their first-quarter scoring average was 30.0, and Chicago allowed 34.4, so the composite is below 32.5. The uncertainty of preseason rotations supports a slight lean to the under.
- Memphis's young core could score quickly in transition.
- Chicago's first-quarter defense was not elite, allowing 34.4 points.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 1st quarter · Memphis Grizzlies pointswonMemphis Grizzlies · Under 32.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The projected second-quarter total is slightly under this line. Chicago's strong second-quarter defense and Memphis's lower second-quarter scoring suggest a lower total, making the under a marginal play.
- Memphis's defense allowed 35.4 in the second quarter, which could lead to a higher total.
- Both teams have shown the ability to score in the 30s in a quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Total pointswonUnder 57.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's projected second-quarter score is about 31.8, just over this line. Their historical second-quarter scoring average is 28.2, and Memphis's second-quarter defensive allowance is 35.4, so the composite is above 31.5.
- Chicago's second-quarter offense may not be as productive with new rotations.
- Memphis could tighten up defensively in the second quarter.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Chicago Bulls pointslostChicago Bulls · Over 31.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Memphis's projected second-quarter score is just under this line. Their second-quarter scoring average was 26.8, but Chicago allowed only 23.6, so the composite is below 25.5. The uncertainty of preseason rotations supports a slight lean to the under.
- Memphis could score more if their shooters get hot.
- Chicago's second-quarter defense may not maintain its historical strength.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 2nd quarter · Memphis Grizzlies pointslostMemphis Grizzlies · Under 25.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The projected third-quarter total is about 62.8, just over this line. Both teams have shown the ability to score in the low 30s in a quarter, and their defenses allow points, making the over a slight favorite.
- Preseason third quarters can be low-scoring as teams use deep rotations.
- Memphis's defensive issues could push the total over.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Total pointslostOver 62.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's projected third-quarter score is about 30.9, just over this line. Their historical third-quarter scoring average is 29.8, and Memphis's third-quarter defensive allowance is 32.0, so the composite is above 30.5.
- Chicago's third-quarter offense may be inconsistent with new rotations.
- Memphis could tighten up defensively after halftime.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Chicago Bulls pointswonChicago Bulls · Over 30.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Memphis's projected third-quarter score is about 31.9, just over this line. Their historical third-quarter scoring average is 27.6, and Chicago's third-quarter defensive allowance is 36.2, so the composite is above 31.5.
- Memphis's offense may not consistently exploit Chicago's weak third-quarter defense.
- Chicago could make halftime adjustments to limit Memphis.
- NBA normal forecasts are experimental; held-out calibration and live editorial acceptance remain pending.
- Historical scoring is evidence, not a calibrated probability distribution or a confirmed current rotation.
- Designated home status does not establish home-court advantage; preseason venue defaults can be wrong.
- Small same-stage scoring sample; confidence remains LOW.
BetBugs · 3rd quarter · Memphis Grizzlies pointslostMemphis Grizzlies · Over 31.5Estimated chance51%

L125–124

Memphis Grizzliesv

Chicago Bulls

Mar 29, 2026·REG

W132–107

Chicago Bullsv

Memphis Grizzlies

Mar 17, 2026·REG

244Avg total points

13Avg margin

2meetings

League table

NBA · 2026–27 regular season

Standings for 2026–27 are unavailable from the provider.

Recent Form

Chicago Bulls

9W 16L · last 25

at Dallas Mavericks128–149 Apr 13REG

vs Orlando Magic103–127 Apr 11REG

at Washington Wizards119–108 Apr 9REG

at Washington Wizards129–98 Apr 7REG

vs Phoenix Suns110–120 Apr 5REG

at New York Knicks96–136 Apr 3REG

vs Indiana Pacers126–145 Apr 2REG

at San Antonio Spurs114–129 Mar 31REG

at Memphis Grizzlies124–125 Mar 29REG

at Oklahoma City Thunder113–131 Mar 28REG

at Philadelphia 76ers137–157 Mar 25REG

vs Houston Rockets132–124 Mar 24REG

vs Cleveland Cavaliers110–115 Mar 20REG

vs Toronto Raptors109–139 Mar 19REG

vs Memphis Grizzlies132–107 Mar 17REG

at LA Clippers108–119 Mar 14REG

at Los Angeles Lakers130–142 Mar 13REG

at Golden State Warriors130–124 OTMar 11REG

at Sacramento Kings110–126 Mar 9REG

at Phoenix Suns105–103 Mar 6REG

vs Minnesota Timberwolves126–120 Oct 17PRE

at Denver Nuggets117–124 Oct 15PRE

vs Milwaukee Bucks121–127 Oct 12PRE

vs Cleveland Cavaliers119–112 Oct 10PRE

at Cleveland Cavaliers118–117 Oct 7PRE

Memphis Grizzlies

3W 22L · last 25

at Houston Rockets101–132 Apr 13REG

at Utah Jazz101–147 Apr 11REG

at Denver Nuggets119–136 Apr 9REG

vs Cleveland Cavaliers126–142 Apr 7REG

at Milwaukee Bucks115–131 Apr 5REG

vs Toronto Raptors96–128 Apr 4REG

vs New York Knicks119–130 Apr 2REG

vs Phoenix Suns105–131 Mar 31REG

vs Chicago Bulls125–124 Mar 29REG

vs Houston Rockets109–119 Mar 28REG

vs San Antonio Spurs98–123 Mar 26REG

at Atlanta Hawks107–146 Mar 23REG

at Charlotte Hornets101–124 Mar 21REG

vs Boston Celtics112–117 Mar 21REG

vs Denver Nuggets125–118 Mar 19REG

at Chicago Bulls107–132 Mar 17REG

at Detroit Pistons110–126 Mar 13REG

vs Dallas Mavericks112–120 Mar 13REG

at Philadelphia 76ers129–139 Mar 10REG

at Brooklyn Nets115–126 Mar 9REG

at Miami Heat141–125 Oct 18PRE

at Charlotte Hornets116–145 Oct 15PRE

vs Atlanta Hawks116–122 Oct 12PRE

vs Boston Celtics103–121 Oct 9PRE

vs Detroit Pistons112–128 Oct 7PRE

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Chicago Bulls

25 games

Stats

2–3

Memphis Grizzlies

25 games

Memphis Grizzlies leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %+6.5pp

58.6%

+6.5pp

52.1%

3-point %+3.0pp

32.1%

+3.0pp

35.1%

Free-throw %+2.8pp

74.7%

+2.8pp

77.5%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s9.0pp apart

32.4%

9.0pp apart

41.4%

Free throws per shot2.4pp apart

27.9%

2.4pp apart

25.5%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game+8.7

46.7

+8.7

38.0

Turnovers per game1.0 fewer

16.3

1.0 fewer

15.3

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.

Some historical or current information is incomplete. Review the evidence and uncertainty shown with each forecast; team selections and playing time can change.