Champions LeagueUpcomingFeatured

SzombathelyAEK Athens

Wed 4 Nov 2026, 17:004 Nov, 17:00

10Probabilities0Priced0Edges82.4%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

Read first

Both teams are 1-1 in Group C, but the shape of it favours Szombathely: 95.3 points per game this season against AEK's 78.8, plus a deeper, fresher rotation.

Szombathely winning by double figures is the plain read. Prices are available across the board, yet none of them stands out at our numbers.

Context

AEK's reported absences — Nolley, Heurtel and Williams — are unconfirmed for this game but would directly affect the rotation available in Szombathely.

AEK were without Landers Nolley for their latest domestic fixture on 31 October. His selection for the Champions League game in Szombathely remains uncertain, and another absence would reduce AEK’s available rotation.
- Landers Nolley missed AEK’s game against Vikos on 31 October because of gastroenteritis.
Derrick Williams was unavailable when AEK faced Vikos on 31 October. No sanction duration was stated, leaving his selection for Szombathely unresolved; a continued absence would shorten AEK’s available squad.
- Derrick Williams was absent for AEK’s 31 October game against Vikos because of a disciplinary breach.
Thomas Heurtel’s calf strain was reported on 19 October, shortly after AEK’s domestic win over Mykonos. No return date was stated, so his selection for the Champions League game in Szombathely remains uncertain.
- Thomas Heurtel was reported with a calf strain and started treatment on 19 October.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 82.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely win in about 82 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · Match WinnerSzombathelyEstimated chance82.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely cover -3.5 (overtime included) in about 76 of 100 games like this.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · HandicapSzombathely -3.5Estimated chance75.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely are ahead at the end of the 1st half in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · 1st Half ResultSzombathelyEstimated chance73.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely cover -0.5 in the 1st half in about 73 of 100 games like this.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapSzombathely -0.5Estimated chance73.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely are ahead at the end of the 2nd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter ResultSzombathelyEstimated chance67%

Points5 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Szombathely and 15 for AEK Athens, across seasons and competitions.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsSzombathely over 18.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely score more than 85.5 points (overtime included) in about 69 of 100 games like this.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · Team PointsSzombathely over 85.5Estimated chance69.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. Szombathely score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 69 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Szombathely and 15 for AEK Athens, across seasons and competitions.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsSzombathely over 20.5Estimated chance69.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. AEK Athens score fewer than 82.5 points (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · Team PointsAEK Athens under 82.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Szombathely 90.3, AEK Athens 78.5. The 2nd quarter has fewer than 44.5 points in about 62 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Szombathely and 15 for AEK Athens, across seasons and competitions.
- Szombathely averaged 95.3 points across their current-season games (8 games, 26 Sep–28 Oct 2026), including Champions League scores of 85 and 93.
- AEK averaged 78.8 points across their current-season games (8 games), with away Greek league scores of 84, 62 and 58.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely shot 55.2% on two-pointers, 36.7% on three-pointers and 78.4% from the free-throw line; AEK shot 53.6%, 34.3% and 72.4%.
- Across 15 games, Szombathely averaged 35.9 rebounds and 9.2 turnovers; AEK averaged 29.1 rebounds and 12.8 turnovers.
- AEK's latest box score on 31 October was without Nolley, Heurtel and Pinckney; Nolley missed that game with gastroenteritis.
- Szombathely had about 7 days' rest before this game, while AEK had about 4 days since their 31 October loss at Vikos.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Total PointsUnder 44.5Estimated chance61.8%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotNov 3, 01:26

Selected line

168.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 169+ points

1 pp below break-even

Over 1.90 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 168.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

W83–89

AEK Athensv

Szombathely

Dec 14, 2021·CL

W83–78

Szombathelyv

AEK Athens

Oct 6, 2021·CL

166.5Avg total points

5.5Avg margin

2meetings

League table

Champions League · Champions League - Regular Season · Group A

#TeamW–LWin %

Szombathely

1–150%

AEK Athens

1–150%

Recent Form

Szombathely

12W 3L · last 15

at Kormend105–79 Oct 28NB

vs Kecskemeti TE85–65 Oct 24NB

vs Salon Vilpas85–72 Oct 20CL

at NKA Pecs106–78 Oct 16NB

vs Szedeak96–65 Oct 10NB

at Antwerp Giants93–99 Oct 7CL

at OSE Lions98–74 Oct 3NB

vs Phoenix-MT Fot94–75 Sep 26NB

at Szolnoki Olaj113–82 May 27NB

vs Szolnoki Olaj75–81 May 25NB

at Szolnoki Olaj89–78 May 22NB

vs Szolnoki Olaj91–85 May 19NB

at Szolnoki Olaj79–94 May 16NB

vs Kaposvari93–92 May 8NB

at Kaposvari91–81 May 5NB

AEK Athens

6W 9L · last 15

at Vikos84–95 Oct 31BAS

at PAOK62–65 Oct 24BAS

vs Antwerp Giants76–103 Oct 21CL

vs Mykonos84–79 Oct 17BAS

at Aris58–88 Oct 10BAS

vs Salon Vilpas95–93 Oct 7CL

vs Maroussi91–70 Oct 3BAS

at Olympiacos80–93 Sep 26SUP

vs Olympiacos68–95 May 30BAS

at Olympiacos77–94 May 28BAS

vs Aris102–99 May 25BAS

at Aris81–90 May 17BAS

vs Aris87–81 May 14BAS

vs Rytas86–92 OTMay 9CL

at Unicaja78–65 May 7CL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Szombathely

Stats

5–0

AEK Athens

Szombathely leads in 5 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 3–0

2-point %+1.6pp

55.2%

+1.6pp

53.6%

3-point %+2.4pp

36.7%

+2.4pp

34.3%

Free-throw %+6.0pp

78.4%

+6.0pp

72.4%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s2.4pp apart

31.7%

2.4pp apart

29.3%

Free throws per shot0.8pp apart

37.0%

0.8pp apart

37.8%

Possession· 2–0

Rebounds per game+6.8

35.9

+6.8

29.1

Turnovers per game3.6 fewer

9.2

3.6 fewer

12.8

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.