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Brisbane BulletsPerth

Wed 4 Nov 2026, 09:004 Nov, 09:00

10Probabilities0Priced0Edges75.6%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Two mid-table NBL sides with matching defensive numbers meet with only 1.8 points projected between them: Brisbane 96.2, Perth 94.4 after 40 minutes.

Brisbane's rebounding and Perth's three-point and free-throw shooting pull in opposite directions, and Perth won twice in Brisbane last season. The lean is a narrow Brisbane win, about 56 in 100 including overtime, but none of the prices on offer stands out at our numbers.

Context

Brisbane's available group could still shift: Mackinnon and Mayen were absent from the 1 November box score and Arnas Velička's return was still pending in the latest update, while Perth's latest box score had no regulars missing. Neither side has a confirmed availability change for this game.

Arnas Velička had not yet returned in the latest update, which linked Raul Neto's Brisbane spell to the timing of that return. Velička's availability could still change Brisbane's available group for Perth.
- Raul Neto had recently joined Brisbane, while Arnas Velička's return was described as still to come.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 75.6%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Brisbane Bullets cover +4.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 76 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Brisbane Bullets and 15 for Perth, across seasons and competitions.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapBrisbane Bullets +4.5Estimated chance75.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Brisbane Bullets cover +3.5 (overtime included) in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · HandicapBrisbane Bullets +3.5Estimated chance64.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Brisbane Bullets cover +2.5 in the 1st half in about 64 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 1st Half HandicapBrisbane Bullets +2.5Estimated chance64.2%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Brisbane Bullets win in about 56 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · Match WinnerBrisbane BulletsEstimated chance55.7%

Points6 outcomes · top 67%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Brisbane Bullets score more than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Brisbane Bullets and 15 for Perth, across seasons and competitions.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsBrisbane Bullets over 21.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Perth score fewer than 25.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 66 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Brisbane Bullets and 15 for Perth, across seasons and competitions.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsPerth under 25.5Estimated chance65.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Perth score fewer than 25.5 points in the 1st quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 1st Quarter Team PointsPerth under 25.5Estimated chance64.6%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. The 3rd quarter has more than 44.5 points in about 64 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Brisbane Bullets and 15 for Perth, across seasons and competitions.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 44.5Estimated chance64.1%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Perth score fewer than 49.5 points in the 1st half in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · 1st Half Team PointsPerth under 49.5Estimated chance62.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Brisbane Bullets 96.2, Perth 94.4. Brisbane Bullets score more than 93.5 points (overtime included) in about 62 of 100 games like this.
- Brisbane are 5-5 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.8 points for and 96.7 against over 10 games.
- Perth are 5-4 in the 2026-27 NBL, averaging 93.2 points for and 96.7 against over 9 games; their only 2026-27 road game was an 81-102 loss at Sydney on 17 October.
- Perth's box-score shooting is 34.3% from three and 81.8% from the free-throw line, against Brisbane's 29.4% and 68.4% (14-15 games tracked).
- Brisbane average 38.6 rebounds and 14.3 turnovers; Perth average 33.3 rebounds and 12.1 turnovers (14-15 games tracked).
- Perth won three of four meetings last season, including 95-75 and 86-62 in Brisbane, though those games date from December 2025 and January 2026.
- Brisbane's 1 November 2026 box score was missing Mackinnon and Mayen, while Perth's 31 October 2026 box score had no regulars missing.
BetBugs · Team PointsBrisbane Bullets over 93.5Estimated chance62%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotNov 3, 01:26

Selected line

190.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

52%

Chance of 191+ points

1 pp below break-even

Over 1.87 needs 53% to break even. BetBugs sees 52%.

Move the line main 190.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 52%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 48%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L94–75

Perthv

Brisbane Bullets

Feb 13, 2026·NBL

L75–95

Brisbane Bulletsv Perth

Perth

Jan 1, 2026·NBL

L62–86

Brisbane Bulletsv Perth

Perth

Dec 14, 2025·NBL

W93–110

Perthv

Brisbane Bullets

Oct 15, 2025·NBL

L85–112

Brisbane Bulletsv Perth

Perth

Jan 15, 2025·NBL

L117–89

Perthv

Brisbane Bullets

Nov 29, 2024·NBL

W105–84

Brisbane Bulletsv Perth

Perth

Nov 17, 2024·NBL

L118–86

Perthv

Brisbane Bullets

Jan 19, 2024·NBL

L76–79

Brisbane Bulletsv Perth

Perth

Nov 18, 2023·NBL

W79–84

Perthv

Brisbane Bullets

Oct 27, 2023·NBL

180.4Avg total points

19.6Avg margin

10meetings

League table

NBL · NBL - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Brisbane Bullets

5–550%

Perth

5–456%

Recent Form

Brisbane Bullets

5W 10L · last 15

at Adelaide96–89 Nov 1NBL

vs Cairns Taipans85–107 Oct 29NBL

at Illawarra Hawks98–81 Oct 24NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers85–106 Oct 21NBL

vs South East Melbourne115–105 Oct 15NBL

at Cairns Taipans91–97 Oct 8NBL

vs Tasmania JackJumpers99–109 OTOct 3NBL

at Sydney78–93 Sep 30NBL

vs Illawarra Hawks103–95 Sep 25NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers88–85 Sep 22NBL

vs Sydney77–117 Feb 20NBL

at Perth75–94 Feb 13NBL

vs Cairns Taipans72–81 Feb 8NBL

at Tasmania JackJumpers70–114 Feb 6NBL

vs Adelaide74–107 Jan 28NBL

Perth

7W 8L · last 15

vs Illawarra Hawks98–105 Oct 31NBL

vs Sydney91–99 Oct 28NBL

vs Melbourne United103–102 Oct 23NBL

at Sydney81–102 Oct 17NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers100–84 Oct 10NBL

vs South East Melbourne92–88 Oct 2NBL

vs New Zealand Breakers97–93 Sep 26NBL

vs Adelaide98–97 Sep 24NBL

vs South East Melbourne79–100 Sep 19NBL

vs Sydney75–89 Mar 14NBL

at Sydney104–105 Mar 11NBL

vs Melbourne United95–77 Mar 7NBL

at South East Melbourne94–111 Mar 4NBL

vs Adelaide86–74 Feb 20NBL

at Sydney84–102 Feb 15NBL

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Brisbane Bullets

Stats

2–3

Perth

Perth leads in 3 of 5 performance stats.

Shooting· 1–2

2-point %14/15 games+0.3pp

54.5%

+0.3pp

54.2%

3-point %14/15 games+4.9pp

29.4%

+4.9pp

34.3%

Free-throw %14/15 games+13.4pp

68.4%

+13.4pp

81.8%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s14/15 games3.9pp apart

31.6%

3.9pp apart

35.5%

Free throws per shot14/15 games3.8pp apart

24.3%

3.8pp apart

28.1%

Possession· 1–1

Rebounds per game14/15 games+5.3

38.6

+5.3

33.3

Turnovers per game2.2 fewer

14.3

2.2 fewer

12.1

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.