Liga AUpcoming

OlimpicoPenarol

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 01:003 Nov, 01:00

9Probabilities0Priced0Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

Read first

Olimpico's 88.6 points per game meets Penarol's 74.6 points conceded per game over five Liga A games each, with Penarol holding both 2025-26 meetings.

Olimpico edge the 40-minute reading 84.0 to 82.1 and are the likelier winner, though not by much. No price stands out: Penarol with a 1.5-point start at 1.72 and Olimpico under 82.5 points at 1.71 were both passed over, and none of the 210 prices quoted is worth backing.

Context

Two teams with similar five-game records meeting in the regular season; Olimpico have a 13-day gap since their last game and Penarol 2.4 days, but the effect of that scheduling difference on either side's level is not established.

The defeat ended Peñarol's unbeaten Liga Nacional start. Luciano Guerra led the scoring effort and Agustín Pérez Tapia also reached double figures in the five-point loss. Olímpico is the next opponent, making the result immediate form context rather than evidence of a lineup change.
- Peñarol lost 78-73 away to Quimsa on 31 October.
- Luciano Guerra recorded 17 points, six rebounds and three assists.
- Agustín Pérez Tapia added 14 points.
The revised date placed this meeting after Peñarol's 31 October visit to Quimsa rather than in the original Saturday slot. The change affects the sequence of each side's schedule but does not itself establish any player availability or rotation change.
- The game was moved from Saturday 31 October at 11:30 to Monday 2 November at 22:00.
- The revised fixture was set for Vicente Rosales.
- Peñarol listed Olímpico as its next opponent after the 31 October game at Quimsa.

Basketball markets here include overtime: the winner and the combined points count the whole game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result3 outcomes · top 70.5%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Olimpico cover +3.5 in the 3rd quarter in about 70 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Olimpico and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter HandicapOlimpico +3.5Estimated chance70.5%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Penarol cover +3.5 in the 2nd quarter in about 65 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Olimpico and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter HandicapPenarol +3.5Estimated chance65.4%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Olimpico win in about 56 of 100 games like this, overtime included.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerOlimpicoEstimated chance56%

Points6 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. The 3rd quarter has more than 33.5 points in about 85 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Olimpico and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Total PointsOver 33.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Olimpico score more than 18.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 67 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Olimpico and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsOlimpico over 18.5Estimated chance66.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Reference line · unpriced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Penarol score fewer than 21.5 points in the 3rd quarter in about 59 of 100 games like this. Historical reference line; unpriced forecast. Based on 15 completed games for Olimpico and 15 for Penarol, across seasons and competitions.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · 3rd Quarter Team PointsPenarol under 21.5Estimated chance58.9%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Olimpico score more than 82.5 points (overtime included) in about 58 of 100 games like this.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · Team PointsOlimpico over 82.5Estimated chance57.7%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. The game has more than 164.5 points (overtime included) in about 56 of 100 games like this.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · Total PointsOver 164.5Estimated chance55.8%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Expected score after 40 minutes: Olimpico 84.0, Penarol 82.1. Olimpico score more than 20.5 points in the 2nd quarter in about 55 of 100 games like this.
- Olimpico averaged 88.6 points and conceded 83.8 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, most recently a 106-86 win at San Martin on 21 October.
- Penarol averaged 81.2 points and conceded 74.6 across five 2026-27 Liga A games, losing 78-73 at Quimsa on 31 October.
- At home in Liga A this season Olimpico scored 84.7 per game over three games; Penarol away averaged 83.0 scored and 80.0 conceded over three games.
- Olimpico's overall box scores show 37.4% three-point shooting and 76.4% free-throw shooting over 15 games; Penarol's show 31.1% and 70.1% over 14 games with boxes.
- Penarol has the rebounding edge, 35.6 to 31.9 per game, while Olimpico has had 13 days since its last game against Penarol's 2.4 days.
- Penarol won both 2025-26 Liga A meetings, 87-74 at Olimpico on 5 February 2026 and 82-76 at home on 11 December 2025.
BetBugs · 2nd Quarter Team PointsOlimpico over 20.5Estimated chance55%

Total points

Drag or swipe the line to compare point totals and published chances.

Full game · overtime included

Price snapshotNov 2, 04:10

Selected line

164.5

Bookmakers' main total

BetBugs · Over

56%

Chance of 165+ points

Near break-even

Over 1.78 needs 56% to break even. BetBugs sees 56%.

Move the line main 164.5

Over Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 56%

Under Bookmaker quote

BetBugs 44%

Tap a price to compare bookmakers. White mark = break-even chance; pp = percentage points. Half-point totals cannot tie.

L74–87

Olimpicov

Penarol

Feb 5, 2026·LIG

L82–76

Penarolv

Olimpico

Dec 11, 2025·LIG

L90–58

Penarolv

Olimpico

Mar 13, 2025·LIG

W78–72

Olimpicov

Penarol

Jan 24, 2025·LIG

W73–82

Penarolv

Olimpico

Mar 5, 2024·LIG

W89–66

Olimpicov

Penarol

Nov 30, 2023·LIG

L79–80

Olimpicov

Penarol

Feb 3, 2023·LIG

W78–93

Penarolv

Olimpico

Oct 8, 2022·LIG

L89–92

Olimpicov

Penarol

Mar 19, 2022·LIG

L84–65

Penarolv

Olimpico

Jan 10, 2022·LIG

158.7Avg total points

12.7Avg margin

10meetings

League table

Liga A · Liga A - Regular Season

#TeamW–LWin %

Olimpico

3–260%

Penarol

4–180%

Recent Form

Olimpico

7W 8L · last 15

at San Martin106–86 Oct 21LIG

at Regatas83–80 Oct 18LIG

vs Boca Juniors93–80 Oct 13LIG

vs Atenas87–91 Oct 8LIG

vs Platense74–82 Oct 2LIG

at San Martin67–78 Apr 13LIG

at Regatas75–99 Apr 11LIG

vs La Union87–78 Apr 6LIG

vs Quimsa86–81 Mar 29LIG

at San Lorenzo69–80 Mar 26LIG

at Union De Santa Fe101–83 Mar 24LIG

vs Obras Sanitarias93–85 Mar 20LIG

vs Obera TC77–79 Mar 14LIG

vs Ferro69–72 Mar 7LIG

at Boca Juniors77–81 Feb 16LIG

Penarol

8W 7L · last 15

at Quimsa73–78 Oct 31LIG

vs San Martin95–76 Oct 28LIG

at San Lorenzo92–85 Oct 17LIG

at Lanus84–77 Oct 14LIG

vs Gimnasia62–57 Sep 30LIG

vs Ferro68–84 May 3LIG

vs Ferro87–75 May 1LIG

at Ferro78–80 Apr 26LIG

at Ferro91–97 Apr 24LIG

vs Ferro87–80 Apr 20LIG

at Obera TC81–84 Apr 17LIG

at La Union85–91 Apr 15LIG

vs Union De Santa Fe85–83 Apr 5LIG

at Atenas85–95 Apr 1LIG

at Instituto de Cordoba83–68 Mar 29LIG

Stat Battle

Last 15 games · all competitions

Olimpico

Stats

2–2

Penarol

14 games

The teams split the 4 performance stats.

Shooting· 2–1

2-point %+1.6pp

55.5%

+1.6pp

57.1%

3-point %+6.3pp

37.4%

+6.3pp

31.1%

Free-throw %+6.3pp

76.4%

+6.3pp

70.1%

Scoring mix· style, not ranked

Points from 3s9.7pp apart

39.1%

9.7pp apart

29.4%

Free throws per shot8.8pp apart

32.5%

8.8pp apart

41.3%

Possession· 0–1

Rebounds per game+3.7

31.9

+3.7

35.6

Turnovers per game—

0.0

—

0.0

Bars show values. Scoring mix describes style; fewer turnovers is better. Sample badges mark gaps.